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KSU

Kansas State 28 at TCU 38

TCU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:12 · Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense+25.6Pregame prior+0.5Garbage-time factor+14.9Score differential+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:09: Deuce Vaughn run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:20: Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +9.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:12: Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +19.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:45: Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) — TCU win probability +20.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:14: Kendre Miller run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +11.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:14KSU 4th & 3 at TCU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:49TCU 4th & 10 at KSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:40TCU 4th & 15 at TCU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:44TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:19TCU 4th & 5 at KSU 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:32KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 47, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:12TCU 4th & 1 at KSU 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−12.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:10KSU 4th & 2 at TCU 26, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−12.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:25TCU 4th & 1 at KSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−3.9
    74% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−15.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:55KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.0%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:38KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 41, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:35KSU 4th & 9 at TCU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:00TCU 4th & 16 at KSU 37, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:12TCU 4th & 4 at KSU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:42TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:08KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:44KSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:09KSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:20TCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:12TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:45TCU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:14TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3736% → 36%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
64.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 19 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
64.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 7 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
63.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the TCU 49Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
63.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
64.0%
Ty Zentner punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 2:1864% → 66%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
64.1%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-1
64.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
64.1%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
64.1%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+65
65.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2035% → 37%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
65.2%
Will Howard run for 14 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
65.2%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+28
65.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 28 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
63.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:0964% → 65%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
64.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.9%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+10
63.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
64.2%
Max Duggan sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
64.0%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+13
63.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
64.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 19 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.9%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the KanSt 25Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
64.8%
Griffin Kell 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4735% → 41%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
64.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 30Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
65.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 12 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
64.2%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KanSt 43Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+25
63.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 25 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
63.1%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-2
63.0%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 33 DJ Giddens fumbled, recovered by KanSt Ben SinnottSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-5
63.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+37
64.5%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 37 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.8%
Will Howard run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.0%
Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5861% → 59%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.6%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
61.4%
Kendre Miller run for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-13
61.7%
Max Duggan sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 13 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 23
OWN 30
+5
60.1%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+3
59.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emani Bailey for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+17
59.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KANSASST 30 TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:4842% → 51%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
57.9%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 26 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
57.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
49.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5251% → 49%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.7%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
49.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
49.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, downed at the KanSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:2951% → 65%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
49.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
49.7%
Will Howard run for 13 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
48.1%
Kade Warner run for 8 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+47
34.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4539% → 38%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
39.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
40.2%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
40.1%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
39.3%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 45Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
37.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+9
36.6%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the KanSt 46 Emani Bailey fumbled, recovered by TCU Steve AvilaSimilar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
37.5%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4370% → 71%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
29.2%
Will Howard run for no gain to the KanSt 46Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+1
28.6%
Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KanSt 47Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
28.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 3:0133% → 42%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+48
33.1%
Kendre Miller run for 48 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
34.6%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
34.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+16
33.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 16 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.4%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
33.8%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the KanSt 19Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+9
32.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 9 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
33.3%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 9Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
32.7%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
37.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 6:2640% → 55%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
39.8%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+8
40.0%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
40.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 30 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
43.3%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the KanSt 33Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-8
42.5%
Max Duggan sacked by Gavin Forsha for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+18
38.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 18 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
41.8%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
41.4%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
37.9%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
38.8%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the KanSt 8Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
38.3%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
36.1%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the KanSt 2Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
55.0%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:0051% → 54%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
49.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
46.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-5
44.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 13
50
+2
45.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+14
45.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 14 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
43.0%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+4
44.0%
Will Howard run for 4 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
45.7%
Chris Tennant 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:0249% → 71%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
49.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for no gain to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
48.5%
Emari Demercado run for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
50.2%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+55
70.7%
Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2833% → 32%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 27Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
68.1%
Jake Rubley pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 5 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0573% → 70%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
73.1%
Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the KanSt 16 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 26Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 6
OPP 26
+1
73.1%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 25Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
73.2%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
71.7%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
70.2%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the KanSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0532% → 29%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
68.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
68.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+3
70.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
70.8%
Jake Rubley run for no gain to the KanSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:1777% → 89%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
77.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ekow Boye-Doe) to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
77.2%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the KanSt 4Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
78.7%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 9Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.5%
Kendre Miller run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:1514% → 11%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
85.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-3
86.1%
Will Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 13
OWN 41
0
88.4%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 13
OWN 41
+22
89.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+11
84.8%
Kade Warner run for 11 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
86.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
86.1%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
87.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
89.1%
Chris Tennant 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:2291% → 94%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
90.7%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
91.1%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
91.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
92.7%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
93.1%
Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
93.4%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-10
93.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Robert Hentz II for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 40Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+3
93.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 3 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 16
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.8%
Will Howard pass intercepted Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson return for no gain to the KanSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:4595% → 97%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
94.9%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
96.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
96.4%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 30Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+5
95.9%
Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:45
Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)
+20.4
TD · Q3 8:12
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+19.2
TD · Q2 8:09
Deuce Vaughn run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com