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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by BAY at KAN31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:18: Kyron Drones run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +6.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Jordan Nabors run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:33: Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — KU win probability +9.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:29: Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +22.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:37: Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +9.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:57KU 4th & 8 at KU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.6%average punt
- Q1 3:13KU 4th & 5 at BAY 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call20.1%85% to makePunt17.2%−2.9average punt
- Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at KU 16, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.5%71% to convertField goal77.5%−1.081% to makePunt74.5%−4.0average punt
- Q2 9:46KU 4th & 4 at KU 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it14.3%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.6%average punt
- Q2 2:04BAY 4th & 6 at KU 46, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.5%40% to convertField goal86.6%−0.923% to makePunt87.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 8:05KU 4th & 7 at BAY 42, down 25Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.7%37% to convertField goal13.1%−0.630% to makePuntTheir call13.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 14:18BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 48, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt95.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 3:40BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 49, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q4 9:25BAY 4th & 1 at KU 7, up 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%70% to convertField goal90.6%−2.591% to makePunt84.4%−8.6average punt
- Q4 2:02KU 4th & 11 at KU 24, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%25% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 11:05BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:15BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.1%97% to makeGo for two78.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:18BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:35KU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.4%97% to makeGo for two5.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:33KU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick11.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call11.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:29KU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call15.2%−0.597% to makeGo for two15.8%45% to convert
- Q4 2:37BAY Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0324% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2TD7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5276% → 77%
KUDrive 3FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for no gain Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Jackie MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4077% → 78%
KUDrive 5FG16 plays · 62 yds · 7:0222% → 23%
Q1 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
77.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 15 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
77.5%
BEAN, Jason pass to the right incomplete intended for ARNOLD, Lawrence thrown to the BAY35. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on MILTON, Mark enforced 15 yards to the BAY41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
77.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Sevion Morrison for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
77.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 3 yds to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-2
77.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 13 fumbled, recovered by Kans Mason FairchildSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6TD16 plays · 73 yds · 6:5578% → 86%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
78.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+17
77.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
79.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 10 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3215% → 14%
BAYDrive 8INT3 plays · 1 yds · 9:4187% → 89%
BAYDrive 9TD16 plays · 99 yds · 7:2385% → 96%
Q2 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+16
84.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 16 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+3
88.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+12
86.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 12 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
87.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10FUMBLE1 play · 20 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+20
88.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 20 yds Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Devin LemearSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1696% → 96%
KUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 8:0015% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14FUMBLE12 plays · 33 yds · 5:3695% → 98%
KUDrive 15TD3 plays · 9 yds · 1:076% → 10%
BAYDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 3:5593% → 94%
KUDrive 17TD12 plays · 95 yds · 4:077% → 16%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
93.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Devin Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 3Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+4
93.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 4 yds to the Kans 6Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+20
93.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 20 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+22
92.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 22 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-3
92.5%
Jason Bean sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+16
94.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 16 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+24
83.8%
Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 68 yds · 5:0889% → 95%
KUDrive 19TD9 plays · 93 yds · 2:568% → 34%
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+29
92.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 29 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
90.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 8 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+47
90.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 47 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD7 plays · 69 yds · 3:5286% → 98%
Q4 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
85.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 14 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21DOWNS7 plays · -1 yds · 0:355% → 2%
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
97.1%
BEAN, Jason pass to the right complete for 7 yards to FAIRCHILD, Mason caught at the KAN32 and advanced to the KAN32 (WALCOTT, Al). PENALTY KAN Holding on ADAMS-REED, Armaj enforced 10 yards from the KAN25 to the KAN15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1899% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:29
Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-22.7
TD · Q4 14:33
Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-9.7
TD · Q4 2:37
Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+9.2