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OKST

Oklahoma State 40 at TCU 43

TCU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:22 · Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, downed at the OKSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 143Home team on offense−22.1Pregame prior+3.0Score differential−11.6Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:22: Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +20.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:57: Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +36.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 25 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +21.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +49.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Kendre Miller 2 Yd Run — TCU win probability +43.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32OKST 4th & 3 at TCU 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:56TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:26TCU 4th & 4 at OKST 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:07OKST 4th & 8 at OKST 13, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:38TCU 4th & 9 at OKST 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:10OKST 4th & 17 at OKST 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02TCU 4th & 2 at OKST 17, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38OKST 4th & 12 at TCU 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51TCU 4th & 13 at OKST 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−6.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:25OKST 4th & 7 at TCU 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:22TCU 4th & 10 at OKST 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:28OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:21TCU 4th & 9 at TCU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:17OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:59OKST 4th & 6 at OKST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−7.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:08TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−6.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:25OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:40TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:04OKST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:22TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4864% → 63%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
63.5%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
63.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
63.4%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2337% → 39%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
63.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
63.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 8 yds to the OKSt 35Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
63.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
63.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braden Cassity for 38 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
62.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer SandersSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+29
61.2%
Spencer Sanders 29 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:4562% → 61%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
61.5%
Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
61.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 15 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
61.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
61.2%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
61.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Gunnar HendersonSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
60.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:2240% → 46%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
60.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+14
59.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
59.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 3 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+23
58.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 23 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
58.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
58.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jake SchultzSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+9
58.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 9 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
57.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 12 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
53.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2055% → 58%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 12 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
54.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 9 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+10
54.5%
Emari Demercado run for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
54.4%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+48
53.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 48 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.7%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.4%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.3%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0044% → 43%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.2%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKSt 23Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
56.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 25Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
56.4%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Hunter Woodard) to the OKSt 20Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & 13
OWN 20
0
56.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 20
-3
56.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 53 yds , Derius Davis returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 24 Derius Davis fumbled, recovered by OKSt Jaden NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1247% → 47%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.5%
Brennan Presley run for no gain to the TCU 24Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
53.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+7
53.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
53.2%
Tanner Brown 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2552% → 51%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
52.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Geor'Quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
52.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
51.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Gunnar HendersonSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+28
51.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKLAST 38 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Emari Demercado) to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4548% → 63%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden NixonSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
51.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
51.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Stephon Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
50.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 17 yds to the TCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
49.3%
Ollie Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 13
OPP 22
0
49.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+22
37.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 22 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:5441% → 41%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
41.2%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
40.7%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+26
40.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 26 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
41.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
41.3%
TEAM rush for loss of 6 yards to the TCU45, PENALTY OKLAST personal foul 15 yards to the OKLAST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
43.0%
Kendre Miller run for 16 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
42.8%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
42.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
41.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 5 yds to the OKSt 12Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+1
40.8%
Derius Davis run for 1 yd to the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5366% → 66%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
34.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-1
33.9%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
34.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 8
OWN 13
+27
34.4%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Derius Davis returns for 27 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5739% → 39%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
39.1%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
39.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 6
OPP 27
-3
38.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 30Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
39.0%
Griffin Kell 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:0563% → 63%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 27Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
36.8%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Richardson, John Paul, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Cassity, Braden) 10 yards to the OKLAST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
36.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
36.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden CassitySimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
37.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:4837% → 39%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
36.5%
Kendre Miller run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
50
+13
37.2%
Kendre Miller run for 13 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
37.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
36.7%
Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the OKSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
37.4%
Duggan, Max pass complete to Johnston, Quentin for 1 yard to the OKLAST24, PENALTY TCU personal foul (Coker, Andrew) 15 yards to the OKLAST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+9
35.9%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 16
OPP 31
0
36.3%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the OKSt 31Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+14
31.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 14 yds to the OKSt 17Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
39.0%
Griffin Kell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:0760% → 71%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
38.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
38.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the OKSt 41Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+44
37.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 44 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
36.6%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
36.1%
Jaden Nixon run for 1 yd to the TCU 14Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-3
35.8%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Jamoi Hodge for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 17Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
29.4%
Tanner Brown 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:3431% → 31%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
30.5%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
30.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
29.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 5 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
29.6%
Max Duggan sacked by Tyler Lacy for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+16
26.8%
Emari Demercado run for 16 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
29.7%
Emari Demercado run for 9 yds to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+4
29.1%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
29.0%
Kendre Miller run for 21 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
29.1%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 7 yards to the OKSt 20 Kendre Miller fumbled, recovered by TCU Brandon ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+4
26.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 4 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
25.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
30.6%
Griffin Kell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:0070% → 83%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
30.4%
Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
29.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
28.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 17 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
26.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 12 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
25.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+11
25.0%
Jaden Nixon run for 11 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
24.7%
Jaden Nixon run for 3 yds to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
24.1%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
23.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan PresleySimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
16.8%
Tanner Brown 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4118% → 17%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
18.1%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+10
18.7%
Emari Demercado run for 10 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
19.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
20.0%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
19.2%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the OKSt 47Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
18.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
17.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds, downed at the OKSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3288% → 89%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
12.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 11Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
11.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-1
11.5%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 12Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+18
11.0%
Tom Hutton punt for 53 yds , Derius Davis returns for 18 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4317% → 37%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
17.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 25 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
15.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+8
15.5%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
15.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+4
15.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (4 Yards) to the OKSt 3Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.6%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4577% → 82%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
21.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
22.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 9 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
19.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
18.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
17.7%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Bud Clark return for no gain to the TCU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3425% → 21%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
24.5%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 9Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
23.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
22.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
21.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braydon Johnson at the OKSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5784% → 83%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
16.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
16.3%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
15.1%
Spencer Sanders sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
16.6%
Tom Hutton punt for 52 yds , Derius Davis returns for no gain to the TCU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 3:0323% → 66%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
22.6%
Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.8%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+30
22.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 30 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
27.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre MillerSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
26.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 17 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
30.4%
Miller, Kendre rush for no gain to the OKLAST30, PENALTY OKLAST offside 5 yards to the OKLAST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+13
30.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 13 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.9%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the OKSt 10Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
66.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3349% → 47%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 26Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
50.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
52.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
53.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2257% → 54%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.0%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
53.5%
Jordy Sandy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the OKSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 25 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
80.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the TCU 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
81.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
87.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul RichardsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+23
91.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 23 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 31FG
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0059% → 69%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
41.1%
Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Johnson, Braydon, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Brooks Jr., Jason) 10 yards to the TCU35, NO PLAY.Similar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
44.2%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
45.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul RichardsonSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 35
0
49.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 20
OPP 35
+52
30.9%
Tanner Brown 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 32TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0042% → 86%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
42.2%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+7
42.2%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
42.2%
Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 13Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+12
37.0%
Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
43.0%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 2Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.3%
Kendre Miller 2 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
-49.8
TD · OT2 0:00
Kendre Miller 2 Yd Run
+43.2
TD · Q4 1:57
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+36.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com