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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:29 · Reis Vernon punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:35: J. Bean pass,to L. Arnold for 39 yds for a TD, (J. Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +11.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:42: D. Gabriel pass,to T. Wease for 24 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +11.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:36: J. Bean pass,to M. Fairchild for 18 yds for a TD,OKLAHOMA penalty, off-side (I. Coe), (J. Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +5.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:33: Ky Thomas 1 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick) — KU win probability +6.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:31: Mason Fairchild 9 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Jacob Borcila Kick) — KU win probability +6.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 0:23KU 4th & 11 at KU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it26.9%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%average punt
- Q2 12:51KU 4th & 3 at KU 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it23.0%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.2%average punt
- Q2 11:39OU 4th & 7 at OU 45, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snapGo for it76.7%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q2 3:29KU 4th & 15 at KU 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it14.6%−1.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.8%average punt
- Q3 8:17KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q3 0:15KU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 5:18OU 4th & 2 at KU 20, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.5%57% to convertField goalTheir call96.1%−0.575% to makePunt93.7%−2.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:14OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.6%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:35KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.7%97% to makeGo for two24.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:26OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:42OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.1%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:33KU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.0%97% to makeGo for two4.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD29 plays · 79 yds · 12:1478% → 79%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
77.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 11 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+38
77.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 38 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
78.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 14 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+5
78.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 5 yds to the Kans 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2TD7 plays · 75 yds · 9:3524% → 27%
Q1 9:35
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+39
75.6%
J. Bean pass,to L. Arnold for 39 yds for a TD, (J. Borcila KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
73.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Torry Locklin for 8 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
73.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 20 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 7:1377% → 75%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
74.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 14 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
74.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 12 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
74.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 6 yds to the Kans 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
75.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 5 yds to the Kans 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD10 plays · 65 yds · 2:3928% → 29%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
71.7%
KANSAS Penalty, delay of game (Edwin White-Schultz) to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+26
72.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 26 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
71.0%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor Kardell, broken up by Key LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 30 yds · 1:2775% → 75%
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the Kans 41 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by Kans Hayden HatcherSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
73.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 7 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
74.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 16 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2327% → 27%
OUDrive 7TD5 plays · 80 yds · 0:3474% → 79%
KUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 12:5122% → 21%
OUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 16 yds · 11:3977% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 13 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10INT8 plays · 40 yds · 7:5423% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.8%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin Skinner for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Woodi Washington) to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
76.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 7 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
50
+15
75.6%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Isaiah Coe) to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
73.8%
KANSAS Penalty, delay of game (Edwin White-Schultz) to the Okla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD7 plays · 65 yds · 5:4285% → 88%
Q2 5:42
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+24
85.1%
D. Gabriel pass,to T. Wease for 24 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
86.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 4 yds to the Kans 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 3:2915% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13TD3 plays · 54 yds · 2:4086% → 88%
KUDrive 14TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3618% → 14%
OUDrive 15END OF HALF9 plays · 74 yds · 0:2087% → 87%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 15 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
87.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 21 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin Skinner for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Woodi Washington) to the Kans 35 for a 1ST down Jason Bean pass incomplete to Quentin Skinner for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Woodi Washington) to the Kans 35 for a 1ST down Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the Kans 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16INT6 plays · 13 yds · 12:496% → 2%
OUDrive 17TD14 plays · 47 yds · 0:0098% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+15
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 15 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden Willis, broken up by Ra'Mello DotsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 8 yds to the Kans 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+15
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 15 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden Willis, broken up by Ra'Mello DotsonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 8 yds to the Kans 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 9:004% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19INT5 plays · 30 yds · 6:4997% → 98%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+13
98.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 13 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Shaad Dabney) to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD3 plays · 47 yds · 5:564% → 2%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+19
98.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Luke Grimm for 19 yds to the Okla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3698% → 98%
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.6%
Brayden Willis 26 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 10 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 35 OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+17
98.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 17 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:152% → 2%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 23 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23FUMBLE5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin Mims, broken up by Ra'Mello DotsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+7
98.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 7 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 3 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
98.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 28 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by Kans Hayden HatcherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24TD7 plays · 28 yds · 10:339% → 6%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
94.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 6 yds to the Okla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 25FG16 plays · 55 yds · 5:3097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 26TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3110% → 8%
OUDrive 27Uncategorized5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:42
D. Gabriel pass,to T. Wease for 24 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q1 9:35
J. Bean pass,to L. Arnold for 39 yds for a TD, (J. Borcila KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 10:33
Ky Thomas 1 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)
-6.9