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ISU

Iowa State 21 at Texas 24

TEX
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreISU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:37 · Daniel Trejo punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+12.7Home team on offense+4.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Xavier Worthy 15 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +7.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:27: Jaylin Noel 54 Yd pass from Hunter Dekkers (Drake Nettles Kick) — ISU win probability +13.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 10:58: Hunter Dekkers 11 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick) — ISU win probability +28.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:43: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 3 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +39.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01: Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 32 — TEX win probability +18.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ISU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:38ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35TEX 4th & 10 at ISU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:23ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:36TEX 4th & 2 at ISU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:41ISU 4th & 7 at ISU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:07TEX 4th & 9 at ISU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:07ISU 4th & 11 at TEX 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:04TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:37TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:43TEX 4th & 3 at ISU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−4.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−22.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:55ISU 4th & 2 at ISU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 0:57ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:48TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:13TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:27ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:58ISU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:43TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ISUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5212% → 12%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.2%
Hunter Dekkers run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
88.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
88.0%
Deon Silas run for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Keilan Robinson blocked by Keilan RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4588% → 88%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.8%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
87.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
87.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for no gain to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
87.5%
Bert Auburn 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0713% → 13%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
87.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
87.2%
Hunter Dekkers run for 4 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
86.9%
Deon Silas run for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-5
86.9%
IOWA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
86.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:5187% → 85%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
86.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 24 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
87.0%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 39Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-10
86.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the IowSt 49Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 24
OPP 49
-16
86.3%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 16 yards to the Texas 35 Quinn Ewers fumbled, recovered by Texas Quinn EwersSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 40
OWN 35
+4
85.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 36
OWN 39
0
85.4%
Daniel Trejo punt for 45 yds, downed at the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 5:0315% → 21%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
85.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 16 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
85.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 21 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
84.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 17 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
84.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-5
84.2%
IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+4
84.2%
Deon Silas run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+11
84.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 11 yds to the Texas 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
83.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
83.7%
Hunter Dekkers run for 8 yds to the Texas 10Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
83.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keondre Coburn) to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.0%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the Texas 5Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.8%
Cartevious Norton run for no gain to the Texas 5Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.5%
Jaylin Noel 5 Yd pass from Hunter Dekkers (Jace Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5481% → 80%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
80.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+18
81.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 18 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
81.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+9
80.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 9 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
80.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
80.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7INT
10 plays · 53 yds · 4:2222% → 27%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
77.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+20
77.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 20 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
76.5%
Deon Silas run for 1 yd to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
76.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 4 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
75.6%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
75.1%
Deon Silas run for 3 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
74.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
74.2%
Hunter Dekkers run for 7 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-3
72.9%
Deon Silas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 7Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
72.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylan Ford return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:5475% → 83%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
74.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+28
73.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 13 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
50
0
75.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
50
+3
74.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 47Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+22
74.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 22 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
75.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+3
75.2%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.8%
Xavier Worthy 15 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:5521% → 22%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
78.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
78.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+14
79.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 14 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
78.0%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+6
78.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 6 yds to the IowSt 37Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
-5
77.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
78.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1780% → 87%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
79.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 25 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
81.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 6 yds to the IowSt 49Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
81.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
80.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 3 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
80.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
80.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
80.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+26
80.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 26 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.7%
Jordan Whittington 5 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
86.1%
Deon Silas run for 3 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3885% → 87%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
84.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+7
84.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 7 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
84.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 21 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
85.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 9 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+7
85.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
85.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 35Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+10
85.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 10 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
85.8%
IOWA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the IowSt 20Similar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+1
86.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 1 yd to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
86.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
86.1%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 13Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
86.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
85.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
87.2%
Bert Auburn 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:5613% → 13%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
86.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 27 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
85.6%
Deon Silas run for 10 yds to the Texas 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
84.5%
Deon Silas run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-8
84.7%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Moro Ojomo for a loss of 8 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+6
86.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
87.4%
Jace Gilbert 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4188% → 87%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
87.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+2
87.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
86.6%
Daniel Trejo punt for 31 yds, downed at the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:0913% → 27%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.7%
Cartevious Norton run for 8 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+54
72.7%
Jaylin Noel 54 Yd pass from Hunter Dekkers (Drake Nettles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3876% → 73%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
76.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 10 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
76.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 6 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
77.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 3 yds to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
76.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Casey CainSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
76.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
74.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
73.1%
Daniel Trejo punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:1225% → 61%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
74.7%
Deon Silas run for 1 yd to the IowSt 28Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+1
74.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 1 yd to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+18
75.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 18 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
70.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 11 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
70.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 5 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
70.2%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
70.3%
Cartevious Norton run for 3 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
68.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
68.6%
Eli Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+21
72.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 21 yds to the Texas 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
67.5%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the Texas 11Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
67.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
38.6%
Hunter Dekkers 11 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0248% → 78%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
48.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 14 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
50.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 14 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
51.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 16 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
53.5%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
52.9%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+13
48.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 13 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
50.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the IowSt 2Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
49.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the IowSt 1Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
42.8%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 3Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 3 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:2429% → 33%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.7%
Hunter Dekkers run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
69.2%
Cartevious Norton run for 2 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
70.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to DeShawn Hanika for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+15
72.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 15 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
70.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+20
73.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 20 yds to the Texas 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
67.3%
Hunter Dekkers run for 4 yds to the Texas 28 Hunter Dekkers fumbled, forced by Anthony Cook, recovered by Texas Jaylan FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0086% → 95%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
85.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
89.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
90.0%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 38Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 3 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)
+39
TD · Q4 10:58
Hunter Dekkers 11 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick)
-28.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:01
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 32
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com