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Baylor 40 at West Virginia 43

WVU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2022 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+3.6WVU 38.0%Casey Legg 23 Yd Field GoalAWAY 17 - HOME 10 · Q2 4:22
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:22 · Casey Legg 23 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense−5.1Pregame prior−4.8Garbage-time factor−1.9Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:19: Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +17.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:42: Justin Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +23.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:39: Qualan Jones 4 Yd Run (John Mayers PAT blocked) — BAY win probability +18.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:06: Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) — WVU win probability +32.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:33: Casey Legg 22 Yd Field Goal — WVU win probability +30.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:48BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23BAY 4th & 14 at WVU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:06WVU 4th & 3 at BAY 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:15WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:22WVU 4th & 6 at BAY 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46WVU 4th & 7 at WVU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:12BAY 4th & 5 at WVU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:12BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.8%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:21BAY 4th & 2 at WVU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−15.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:47WVU 4th & 1 at BAY 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−8.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:40BAY 4th & 10 at WVU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−11.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−19.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:33WVU 4th & 5 at BAY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−3.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−35.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:30WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:34BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:19WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:21BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:42WVU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:39BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:06WVU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1258% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.7%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
41.7%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
41.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+4
42.1%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds , Preston Fox returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1842% → 45%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
42.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 12 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
42.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brian Polendey for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
42.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
42.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
42.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 7 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+7
42.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 7 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
42.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 19 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. 7 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:0055% → 53%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
44.7%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
44.7%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+23
44.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 23 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
45.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.2%
Jordan Nabors pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
45.3%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 42Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+10
45.3%
Qualan Jones run for 10 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
44.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
44.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+12
45.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 12 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
44.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
44.9%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the WVirg 18Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-4
45.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Lee Kpogba for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 22Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+40
46.7%
John Mayers 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:1746% → 48%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Garrett Greene for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
46.8%
Garrett Greene run for 1 yd to the WVirg 33Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
46.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 11 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
47.4%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVirg 45Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+6
47.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
47.0%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
47.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:3253% → 59%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
47.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+18
47.3%
Craig Williams run for 18 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+56
46.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 56 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.2%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the WVirg 1Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.0%
Ben Sims 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1943% → 42%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
43.6%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 29Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.9%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
42.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 42 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2357% → 65%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
43.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
42.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 21 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
35.2%
Gavin Holmes 35 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 10:5236% → 34%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.8%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
36.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVirg 37Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+13
36.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
50
0
37.5%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
50
0
37.1%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 10
50
+30
36.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 30 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
38.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
38.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
38.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
38.4%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
35.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.4%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
38.0%
Casey Legg 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
pass incomplete to Sam JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 1:3565% → 70%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.3%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+46
34.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 46 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+65
30.3%
Jasir Cox 65 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2767% → 70%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
32.4%
Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
31.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JEFFERSON, Jordan enforced (Jordan Jefferson) to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
30.1%
Craig Williams 39 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1435% → 33%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.2%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.9%
JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the WVirg 28Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
34.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
33.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.3%
pass incomplete to Kaden PratherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:4668% → 68%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
32.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
30.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
30.6%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
30.4%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
31.6%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVirg 10Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
32.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
34.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 15 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4135% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.4%
Garrett Greene run for 2 yds to the WVirg 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
35.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVirg 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
37.5%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 7 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
38.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+2
37.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
37.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+10
38.6%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 10 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
38.6%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
55.9%
Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:5153% → 73%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
47.5%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
47.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 7 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
45.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+2
47.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
46.7%
Richard Reese run for 22 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
43.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the WVirg 40Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+25
43.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 25 yds to the WVirg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
41.8%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 7Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
41.8%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the WVirg 2Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.4%
Hal Presley 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3932% → 59%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Justin Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the WVirg 29Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
32.5%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
31.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
33.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 32 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
37.2%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
35.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
59.0%
Justin Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:5752% → 77%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
48.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+25
48.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+20
43.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
41.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 18 yds to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
40.9%
Qualan Jones run for 8 yds to the WVirg 4Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
22.8%
Qualan Jones 4 Yd Run (John Mayers PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5236% → 37%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.7%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
36.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 6 yds to the WVirg 43Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
39.9%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
40.0%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
39.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Preston Fox for 7 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
40.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Preston Fox for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-1
37.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4674% → 76%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
26.4%
Monaray Baldwin run for 20 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
23.8%
Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the WVirg 28 Qualan Jones fumbled, recovered by WVirg Jasir CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:5532% → 72%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
31.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 18 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
35.2%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVirg 49Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
36.1%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 48Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+18
33.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 18 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
39.1%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
71.6%
Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4040% → 24%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
60.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Drake Dabney for 11 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
57.7%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
56.4%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
58.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 15 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
54.9%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-5
51.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Brooks Miller) to the WVirg 36Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
54.4%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Malachi Ruffin) to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
51.9%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the WVirg 19Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
53.3%
Kyron Drones pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
76.3%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Ja'Quay Hubbard) to the WVirg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22INT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
76.8%
JT Daniels pass intercepted WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POLENDEY, Brian ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3247% → 55%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
53.4%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+4
58.2%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the WVirg 26Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
57.3%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
44.6%
John Mayers 44 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 24FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:0055% → 94%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
55.3%
JT Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
54.7%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 12 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
60.0%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 9 yds to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+37
61.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 37 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
67.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 2Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
67.1%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
64.0%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 5Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
94.1%
Casey Legg 22 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:2724% → 20%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
76.4%
Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
74.5%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
77.7%
Kyron Drones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+17
79.6%
Kyron Drones run for 17 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:06
Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)
+32.5
FG · Q4 0:33
Casey Legg 22 Yd Field Goal
+30.4
TD · Q3 1:42
Justin Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick)
+23.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com