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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreTEX score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:43 · Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Texas 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:48: Bijan Robinson 2 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +2.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:40: Xavier Worthy 10 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +4.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:31: Keilan Robinson 15 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +8.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:50: Quinn Ewers run for 1 yd to the Texas 22 — TEX win probability +4.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:18: Ja'Tavion Sanders 24 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +4.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:22TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.9%average punt
- Q1 11:19OU 4th & 10 at OU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q1 4:35OU 4th & 2 at TEX 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.7%57% to convertField goal33.2%−0.451% to makePunt32.9%−0.8average punt
- Q1 2:24OU 4th & 3 at TEX 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.5%51% to convertField goal33.2%−0.375% to makePunt30.1%−3.5average punt
- Q1 0:43OU 4th & 2 at TEX 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.6%54% to convertField goal32.9%−0.789% to makePunt28.9%−4.7average punt
- Q2 10:41OU 4th & 10 at TEX 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it26.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal25.7%−0.432% to makePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q2 6:01OU 4th & 5 at OU 30, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 5:34TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it84.9%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.3%average punt
- Q3 12:59OU 4th & 2 at OU 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.9%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:08OU 4th & 7 at OU 34, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 4:04OU 4th & 12 at OU 19, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 14:48OU 4th & 19 at OU 16, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 10:15OU 4th & 21 at OU 14, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 5:38TEX 4th & 8 at OU 24, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%68% to makePunt99.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 4:07OU 4th & 4 at OU 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 2:06TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 35, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 6:48TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.0%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:40TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.5%97% to makeGo for two71.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:31TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.0%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:18TEX Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:01TEX Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:57TEX Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:11TEX Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEXDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2573% → 73%
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
27.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 3 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
27.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Roschon Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
27.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4128% → 28%
Q1 12:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
27.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Brayden Willis for 9 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
28.3%
Davis Beville pass complete to Drake Stoops for no gain to the Okla 40Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+5
28.2%
Michael Turk punt for 55 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 5 yds to the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1272% → 73%
Q1 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
28.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 8 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
29.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 16 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
29.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 22 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4DOWNS16 plays · 67 yds · 5:4728% → 29%
TEXDrive 5TD8 plays · 92 yds · 2:5072% → 78%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
27.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 13 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
27.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 38 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+13
26.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 13 yds to the Okla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 1:3923% → 22%
TEXDrive 7TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:4978% → 88%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
21.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 22 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
20.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 12 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
20.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
20.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 4 yds to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5915% → 15%
TEXDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2288% → 88%
Q2 5:34
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
12.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10INT6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0415% → 16%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
15.5%
Eric Gray pass intercepted Jahdae Barron return for 6 yds to the Texas 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD12 plays · 79 yds · 2:3289% → 96%
Q2 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+9
8.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
8.3%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete to Worthy, Xavier, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Dennis, Kendall) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.1%
Davis Beville pass intercepted D'Shawn Jamison return for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 1:444% → 4%
TEXDrive 15INT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2697% → 97%
Q3 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-20
2.8%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted C.J. Coldon return for 20 yds to the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:493% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:5998% → 99%
Q3 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
2.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 9 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+32
1.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 32 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+15
1.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 15 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:261% → 1%
Q3 4:04
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+28
0.9%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the OKLAHOMA 37 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trey Morrison) to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19TD7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 4 yds to the Okla 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:261% → 0%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.5%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 1 yd to the Okla 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
0.4%
Davis Beville sacked by Byron Murphy II for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 16Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+6
0.4%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 6 yds to the Texas 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD6 plays · 54 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 10:27
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-9
0.2%
Davis Beville sacked by Justice Finkley and Keondre Coburn for a loss of 9 yards to the Okla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 22 yds · 4:12100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Michael Turk punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D'Shawn Jamison at the Texas 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 2:06
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Daniel Trejo punt for 37 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26END OF GAME3 plays · 14 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:31
Keilan Robinson 15 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:50
Quinn Ewers run for 1 yd to the Texas 22
-4.8
TD · Q2 12:40
Xavier Worthy 10 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-4.6