2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:29 · Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:22: Jace Gilbert 35 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +0.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:48: Jace Gilbert 43 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +12.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:14: Chris Tennant 30 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +17.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:14: Timeout IOWA ST, clock 07:14 — ISU win probability +15.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Offense has -3 timeouts left).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: Kneel down by MARTINEZ, Adrian at ISU27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — KSU win probability +22.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 13:17ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 45, tiedClose callPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:22ISU 4th & 7 at KSU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snapGo for it48.0%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call48.1%79% to makePunt47.0%−1.1average punt
- Q1 7:30KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it50.6%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q2 14:47ISU 4th & 7 at KSU 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.1%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call49.3%62% to makePunt46.3%−3.0average punt
- Q2 9:19KSU 4th & 14 at ISU 45, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snapGo for it48.9%−0.919% to convertField goal48.9%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q2 7:26ISU 4th & 6 at ISU 16, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snapGo for it47.5%−0.838% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.4%average punt
- Q2 4:12ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 48, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.2%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.7%average punt
- Q2 1:29KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 36, up 1Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snapGo for it50.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 13:28KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 27, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snapGo for it49.1%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.9%average punt
- Q3 12:07ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 31, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it50.1%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.4%average punt
- Q3 6:15KSU 4th & 2 at ISU 15, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call51.0%−1.583% to makePunt39.6%−12.9average punt
- Q3 0:48ISU 4th & 2 at KSU 25, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snapGo for it51.8%57% to convertField goalTheir call49.1%−2.766% to makePunt35.7%−16.1average punt
- Q4 14:33KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 44, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.2%−1.5average punt
- Q4 12:17ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 16, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it57.2%−5.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q4 7:14KSU 4th & 4 at ISU 12, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snapGo for it39.9%−4.545% to convertField goalTheir call44.4%86% to makePunt26.0%−18.4average punt
- Q4 5:37ISU 4th & 6 at KSU 45, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it46.1%40% to convertField goal43.9%−2.225% to makePuntTheir call43.6%−2.5average punt
- Q4 3:24KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 14, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it55.1%−4.947% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q4 2:29ISU 4th & 7 at KSU 49, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.4%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt38.1%−3.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:23KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartISUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 1:4347% → 47%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
46.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 9 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
46.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
47.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD4 plays · 86 yds · 0:5453% → 54%
ISUDrive 3FG9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5446% → 47%
KSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5253% → 53%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 21 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5FG16 plays · 69 yds · 7:4345% → 47%
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+4
44.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the IowSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
45.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for no gain to the IowSt 16Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
45.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
45.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 9 yds to the IowSt 36Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
46.1%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Brendan Mott for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 14
OWN 45
-10
45.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dimitri Stanley) to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
46.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 8 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
46.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the KanSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 5:1953% → 52%
Q2 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
46.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+12
46.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-4
46.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
48.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5346% → 43%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
45.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-4
44.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 16Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
43.1%
Tyler Perkins punt for 52 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KanSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · 68 yds · 1:0154% → 53%
Q2 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+68
47.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 68 yds Malik Knowles fumbled, recovered by IowSt Colby ReederSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1345% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4353% → 50%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-12
46.2%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 12 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -7 yds · 1:2947% → 46%
KSUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3253% → 51%
ISUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2149% → 48%
Q3 13:28
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+12
47.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14MISSED FG12 plays · 63 yds · 5:5253% → 55%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
47.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 7 yds to the KanSt 29Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
45.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 13 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+8
43.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 8 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+6
41.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the IowSt 14Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 1
OPP 14
-1
43.2%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Colby Reeder for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15FG13 plays · 55 yds · 5:2749% → 59%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
48.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 13 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
49.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 12 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
55.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0944% → 44%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
56.5%
MARTINEZ, Adrian pass up the middle incomplete intended for WARNER, Kade thrown to the ISU38. PENALTY ISU Pass Interference on TAMPA, T.J. enforced 15 yards to the KSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 8 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
55.6%
Ty Zentner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1658% → 55%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
57.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 22Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 15
OWN 12
+4
55.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 4 yds to the IowSt 16Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
55.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18FG12 plays · 45 yds · 5:0346% → 62%
Q4 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+12
53.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 12 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
55.6%
Malik Knowles pass complete to Adrian Martinez for 11 yds to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
53.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 5 yds to the IowSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3151% → 43%
Q4 7:08
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+3
48.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 3 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1359% → 59%
Q4 3:24
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+14
40.8%
Ty Zentner punt for 52 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 14 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5538% → 32%
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+3
31.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 3 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2270% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
4.0%
Kneel down by MARTINEZ, Adrian at ISU27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
Kneel down by MARTINEZ, Adrian at ISU27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
-22.3
FG · Q4 7:14
Chris Tennant 30 yd FG GOOD
-17.4
FG · Q4 7:14
Timeout IOWA ST, clock 07:14
+15.3