Try the model
OU

Oklahoma 24 at TCU 55

TCU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:28 · Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Home team on offense+31.6Score differential+25.5Pregame prior−3.4Garbage-time factor+11.3Blowout margin+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +9.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:07: Kendre Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +9.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:30: Emari Demercado run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:49: Jovantae Barnes run for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +9.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:34: Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 62 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +10.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 11:07OU 4th & 6 at OU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49OU 4th & 8 at TCU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:28OU 4th & 4 at TCU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:28OU 4th & 9 at OU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:47TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:20OU 4th & 7 at OU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:40TCU 4th & 1 at OU 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−5.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:02OU 4th & 12 at TCU 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36OU 4th & 13 at OU 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:29TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 30, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:39OU 4th & 4 at OU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:23OU 4th & 11 at OU 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:28TCU 4th & 11 at TCU 29, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:29OU 4th & 9 at TCU 28, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:30OU 4th & 1 at TCU 30, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:21TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 44, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:38OU 4th & 12 at OU 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:13TCU 4th & 5 at OU 19, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8OU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:45TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:35TCU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:17TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:15OU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:07TCU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 10:30TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 8:49OU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:34TCU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:30TCU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:40TCU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:24OU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:3760% → 59%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
40.5%
Eric Gray run for 12 yds to the Okla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.6%
Eric Gray run for no gain to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
40.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 7 yds Marvin Mims fumbled, forced by Abraham Camara, recovered by TCU Dee WintersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:0041% → 42%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
41.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 4 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
41.1%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
41.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
41.5%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Davis, Derius, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Harmon, Damond) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
42.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1758% → 57%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 15 yds to the Okla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
42.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 2 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
42.8%
Gavin Freeman run for 2 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
43.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
43.3%
Michael Turk punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1843% → 43%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
43.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
43.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
43.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
43.1%
Jordy Sandy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:4657% → 57%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
42.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 17 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
43.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 2 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
43.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
43.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
42.7%
Zach Schmit 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5043% → 45%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
42.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
42.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 3 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
44.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 73 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 35
-15
44.6%
TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4056% → 55%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
44.5%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
44.3%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
44.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden WillisSimilar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
45.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
51.1%
Max Duggan run for 67 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:3249% → 47%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
51.1%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
51.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
51.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 5 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
52.3%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd to the Okla 45Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
52.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
52.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Drake StoopsSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
53.3%
Michael Turk punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:3454% → 55%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
53.8%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Washington, Woodi) 15 yards to the TCU35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
54.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
56.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Corey Wren for no gain to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
55.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
55.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, downed at the Okla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:1544% → 52%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
55.7%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-5
55.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, False Start (McKade Mettauer) to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 12
OWN 22
-1
56.3%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 21Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+78
57.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 78 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.1%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4851% → 63%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.5%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
50.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
50.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
50
+10
52.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
52.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 10 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
53.0%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Washington, Woodi) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
62.7%
Kendre Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:4039% → 38%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
61.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 17 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
60.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
60.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
61.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Theo WeaseSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
62.0%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds, downed at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:2565% → 79%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
65.2%
Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+16
65.8%
Kendre Miller run for 16 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
67.0%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
69.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 8 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
69.6%
Emari Demercado run for 9 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+8
70.7%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan HudsonSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+36
71.0%
Emari Demercado run for 36 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.6%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:2624% → 34%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
75.9%
Drake Stoops run for 7 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
75.8%
Eric Gray run for 2 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
76.0%
Eric Gray run for 4 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
76.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamoi Hodge) to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
76.5%
Eric Gray run for 13 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
75.6%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
66.3%
Jovantae Barnes run for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5573% → 75%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.1%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
72.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 2 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
72.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
75.0%
Kendre Miller run for 7 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
75.7%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
75.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Geor'Quarius SpiveySimilar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
75.0%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the Okla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:2330% → 27%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
70.4%
Eric Gray run for 12 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
69.8%
Eric Gray run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
69.8%
Davis Beville sacked by Tymon Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
72.3%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Eric GraySimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
73.4%
Michael Turk punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 89 yds · 2:1677% → 89%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
76.8%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+14
77.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emani Bailey for 14 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
77.7%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Offside Defense (5 Yards) to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 5
OWN 33
0
78.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius DavisSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
78.3%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
78.8%
Quentin Johnston run for 2 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
89.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 62 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:3414% → 14%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
85.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
85.4%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-6
86.0%
Davis Beville sacked by Dee Winters for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 25Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+1
86.1%
Michael Turk punt for 46 yds , Derius Davis returns for 1 yd to the TCU 26 TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20END OF HALF
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:2089% → 90%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
88.8%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+13
89.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 13 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
89.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
89.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 7 yds to the Okla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.7%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1189% → 89%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.6%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
88.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Corey Wren for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
88.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3111% → 8%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
89.4%
Davis Beville run for 5 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
89.3%
Davis Beville pass complete to Eric Gray for 4 yds to the Okla 35Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
89.6%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.1%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
90.2%
Jovantae Barnes run for 4 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-1
91.6%
Davis Beville run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 42Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
91.8%
Michael Turk punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5092% → 99%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
91.9%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
92.1%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
98.7%
Kendre Miller run for 69 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:532% → 1%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
98.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
98.7%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Marvin MimsSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Michael Turk punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-3
99.1%
Emari Demercado run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+3
99.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:411% → 2%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
98.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 10 yds to the Okla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.7%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Theo WeaseSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
98.7%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 1 yd to the Okla 44Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+27
98.8%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jayden Gibson for 12 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Abraham Camara) to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
98.7%
Davis Beville run for 1 yd to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
98.5%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
98.7%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Daniel ParkerSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 9
OPP 28
-5
98.3%
Davis Beville sacked by Damonic Williams and Johnny Hodges for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0599% → 100%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
99.4%
Max Duggan run for 35 yds to the Okla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
99.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 17 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
99.4%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Okla 10Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
99.5%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Okla 8Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+6
99.5%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the Okla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 28TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 4:510% → 0%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 6 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 5 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 7 yds to the Okla 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
99.7%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 2 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
99.7%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jovantae Barnes for 13 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.7%
Jovantae Barnes run for 3 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
99.7%
Davis Beville pass complete to Brayden Willis for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
99.7%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
LV Bunkley-Shelton run for 5 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
99.8%
Tawee Walker run for 6 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.8%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 15 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Jovantae Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Savion Byrd) to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Emani Bailey run for no gain to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Sam Jackson run for 5 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.8%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the Okla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Daniel Parker for 2 yds to the Okla 20Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Jovantae Barnes run for 10 yds to the Okla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jayden GibsonSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.9%
Tawee Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jalil FarooqSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Michael Turk punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 6:12100% → 100%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 1
50
+4
99.9%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Trent Battle run for 11 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Trent Battle run for 5 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Corey Wren run for 4 yds to the Okla 26Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
Corey Wren run for 2 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Corey Wren run for no gain to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Sam Jackson run for no gain to the Okla 24Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Sam Jackson pass complete to Chase Jackson for 5 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 19
-10
99.9%
Sam Jackson sacked by Danny Stutsman and Trey Morrison for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 2 yds to the Okla 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Gavin Sawchuk run for 3 yds to the Okla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:34
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 62 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q1 0:07
Kendre Miller run for 15 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 8:49
Jovantae Barnes run for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com