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TTU

Texas Tech 28 at Kansas State 37

KSU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:50 · Trey Wolff 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense−2.2Score differential−3.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 6 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +9.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:14: Trey Wolff 39 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +6.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:04: Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:08: Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +18.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:34: Adrian Martinez run for 69 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +24.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:16TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:57KSU 4th & 11 at TTU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.4%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:24KSU 4th & 7 at TTU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:41TTU 4th & 1 at KSU 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:57KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 42, up 13
    Close callPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:19TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:02KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:21KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:26TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:56KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:14TTU 4th & 3 at KSU 21, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%−0.8
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:41KSU 4th & 5 at TTU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−3.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:50TTU 4th & 19 at KSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−5.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−13.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:43TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:07KSU 4th & 4 at TTU 14, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−10.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:20KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:24TTU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:04KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:08TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:34KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:54KSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:23TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2567% → 67%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
66.7%
Adrian Martinez run for 57 yds to the TexTc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
66.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4133% → 32%
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
66.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 9 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
66.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
67.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-7
67.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+5
67.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
67.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KanSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:1968% → 70%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
67.7%
Phillip Brooks run for 6 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+11
67.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 11 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.7%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
67.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+10
67.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 10 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
68.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 6
50
+13
68.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 13 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
69.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the TexTc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
69.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 9 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+3
69.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 3 yds to the TexTc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
69.4%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexTc 5Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
69.4%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 12Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
69.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 1 yd to the TexTc 11Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
70.2%
Chris Tennant 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3230% → 29%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
69.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 1 yd to the TexTc 32Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
70.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 2 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
71.3%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0172% → 77%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
71.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+20
71.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 20 yds to the TexTc 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
71.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 15
OPP 16
-6
71.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 21
OPP 22
+13
71.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 13 yds to the TexTc 9Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+1
71.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TexTc 8Similar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
76.5%
Chris Tennant 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4725% → 24%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
75.0%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
74.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+10
75.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the TexTc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
74.8%
Donovan Smith sacked by Felix Anudike-Uzomah for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-6
75.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 25Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3279% → 79%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
78.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
79.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line Deuce Vaughn fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyree Wilson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3525% → 23%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
50
0
75.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
50
+6
75.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the KanSt 44Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
75.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
75.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
75.3%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the KanSt 37Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
76.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 3 yds Tahj Brooks fumbled, recovered by KanSt Nate MatlackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0980% → 80%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
79.9%
Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+1
80.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
80.3%
Ty Zentner punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3821% → 21%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
78.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 7 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
78.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
78.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+9
79.1%
Austin McNamara punt for 42 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 9 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1782% → 81%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
81.6%
Adrian Martinez sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 38Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+4
81.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 42Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-10
80.8%
MARTINEZ, Adrian scrambles to the right for a gain of 50 yards to the TTU8, out of bounds. PENALTY KSU Holding on PANZER, Hadley enforced 10 yards from the KSU42 to the KSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 23
OWN 32
+16
81.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 16 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
81.2%
Ty Zentner punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:3820% → 32%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
80.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 16 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
79.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 16 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
79.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the KanSt 49Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
78.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
78.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 23 yds to the KanSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
77.7%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
77.7%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
77.7%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
68.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 6 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0374% → 72%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
73.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the KanSt 16Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+9
72.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 9 yds to the KanSt 25Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Ty Zentner punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:2127% → 37%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
72.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
50
+13
69.9%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the KANSASST 48 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kobe Savage) to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
68.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+51
62.9%
Trey Wolff 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3434% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
65.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
65.7%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
65.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
64.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 4 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-3
64.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Felix Anudike-Uzomah for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
67.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3067% → 65%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
67.0%
Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-2
66.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
65.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Ty Zentner punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4235% → 44%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
65.5%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
64.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
63.3%
Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
62.7%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+20
64.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 20 yds to the KanSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
61.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 7 yds to the KanSt 21Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 21
0
61.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
62.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
56.5%
Trey Wolff 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:0362% → 81%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+69
61.6%
Deuce Vaughn run for 69 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
66.6%
VAUGHN, Deuce rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the TTU5 (PEARSON, Reggie). PENALTY KSU Holding on PANZER, Hadley enforced 10 yards from the TTU8 to the TTU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
81.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5625% → 49%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
72.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 15 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
72.1%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds to the KanSt 48Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
71.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 10 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
71.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 22 yds to the KanSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
69.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
69.4%
SMITH, Donovan pass to the left incomplete intended for THARP, Mason thrown to the KSU0; QB hurried by HUGGINS, Eli. PENALTY KSU Holding on SMITH, TJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the KSU14 to the KSU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
69.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Landon Peterson) to the KanSt 12Similar
Q3 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
51.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2761% → 61%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
61.2%
Deuce Vaughn run for 14 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
64.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
65.2%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
61.4%
Ty Zentner punt for 21 yds, downed at the TexTc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5143% → 42%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.3%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ekow Boye-Doe) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
50.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for a loss of 2 yards to the KanSt 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-7
50.1%
Donovan Smith sacked by Khalid Duke for a loss of 7 yards to the KanSt 24 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caleb Rogers) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 24
0
54.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 19
OPP 24
+42
58.2%
Trey Wolff 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:1660% → 84%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
60.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 25Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
60.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 6 yds to the KanSt 31Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+69
84.4%
Adrian Martinez run for 69 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5120% → 18%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
79.9%
THOMPSON, SaRodorick rush to the left for no gain to the TTU35 (MOTT, Brendan;MOORE, Austin). PENALTY TTU Holding on JACKSON, Jacoby enforced 10 yards from the TTU35 to the TTU25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+10
82.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 10 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
82.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3688% → 88%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
87.5%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+16
87.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 16 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
87.8%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
87.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the TexTc 15Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+1
86.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the TexTc 14Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
87.5%
Chris Tennant 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4011% → 12%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.3%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
88.2%
Donovan Smith sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:3391% → 98%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
91.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 11 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
91.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 3 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
92.8%
Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TexTc 12Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
97.9%
Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:313% → 10%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
96.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Brady Boyd for 18 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 1 yd to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
96.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+8
96.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 8 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
96.5%
SMITH, Donovan scrambles up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the KSU45 (MOTT, Brendan). PENALTY TTU Holding on WILBURN, Dennis enforced 10 yards from the KSU46 to the TTU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+6
96.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 14
50
0
96.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 14
50
+26
96.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 26 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
95.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
96.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+10
96.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
95.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the KanSt 7Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
95.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jordan Brown for 4 yds to the KanSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.3%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds for a TD, (Donovan Smith pass to Mason Tharp for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28INT
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:199% → 10%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
91.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 25 yds to the KanSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.9%
Donovan Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:1595% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
95.3%
Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 22Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
96.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 26Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+18
96.1%
Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:34
Adrian Martinez run for 69 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
+24.3
TD · Q3 3:08
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 12 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 6:04
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 18 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com