2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadISU aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreISU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:10 · Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:30: Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +6.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:25: Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +9.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:51: Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Clark Run For Two-point Conversion) — ISU win probability +10.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:57: Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel — ISU win probability +12.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: Jalon Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 18 — KU win probability +15.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ISU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
- Q1 11:41ISU 4th & 16 at ISU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snapGo for it56.5%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q1 8:06KU 4th & 17 at ISU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.8%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.1%average punt
- Q1 3:00ISU 4th & 7 at KU 28, tiedClose callWent for it · 54.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.8%−0.137% to convertField goal54.9%60% to makePunt53.4%−1.5average punt
- Q1 0:29ISU 4th & 11 at KU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snapGo for it53.8%−0.525% to convertField goalTheir call54.3%74% to makePunt52.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 10:10ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.2%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.1%average punt
- Q2 10:10ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.2%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.1%average punt
- Q2 9:16KU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.4%average punt
- Q2 0:50KU 4th & 5 at ISU 32, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snapGo for it61.1%−0.342% to convertField goalTheir call61.4%51% to makePunt59.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 0:00ISU 4th & 5 at KU 47, down 6Close callWent for it · 42.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.8%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.2%average punt
- Q3 10:52KU 4th & 3 at ISU 45, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it65.2%52% to convertField goal61.8%−3.425% to makePuntTheir call63.8%−1.4average punt
- Q3 5:27ISU 4th & 7 at KU 18, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snapGo for it35.8%−1.535% to convertField goalTheir call37.2%79% to makePunt25.1%−12.2average punt
- Q3 2:44KU 4th & 8 at ISU 38, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snapGo for it61.5%35% to convertField goal60.6%−0.938% to makePuntTheir call60.5%−1.0average punt
- Q4 12:22ISU 4th & 7 at KU 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.0%37% to convertField goal35.5%−1.534% to makePunt35.5%−1.4average punt
- Q4 11:26ISU 4th & 8 at KU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snapGo for it35.5%−1.933% to convertField goalTheir call37.4%62% to makePunt26.4%−11.1average punt
- Q4 9:57KU 4th & 10 at KU 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it63.3%−3.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.2%average punt
- Q4 7:03ISU 4th & 1 at KU 49, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt31.7%−5.7average punt
- Q4 5:21ISU 4th & 12 at KU 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it27.9%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.0%average punt
- Q4 3:02KU 4th & 18 at KU 12, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it64.9%−14.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.2%average punt
- Q4 1:33ISU 4th & 3 at KU 36, down 3Close callWent for it · 30.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.1%−1.053% to convertField goal25.0%42% to makePunt13.8%−11.2average punt
- Q4 0:27ISU 4th & 1 at KU 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snapGo for it24.6%−9.471% to convertField goalTheir call33.9%75% to makePunt8.4%−25.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ISU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 11:30KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.2%97% to makeGo for two53.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:25KU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:51ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick39.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartISUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5359% → 58%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
41.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
41.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 41Similar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
41.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-10
41.4%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Taiwan Berryhill for a loss of 10 yards to the IowSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 3:2542% → 43%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
42.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 6 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+30
42.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 30 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
43.3%
Jason Bean run for 16 yds to the IowSt 24 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jared Casey) to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
42.7%
Reis Vernon punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3MISSED FG16 plays · 63 yds · 7:2057% → 56%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
42.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 18 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
42.5%
(06:48) Dekkers,Hunter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ISU45 (Young,Craig) PENALTY KAN Offside (Phelps,Lonnie) 6 yards from ISU43 to ISU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
42.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 5 yds to the Kans 46Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
42.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 15 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
42.3%
run for 10 yds to the Kans 41 fumbled, recovered by IowSt Eli SandersSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+13
43.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 13 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+8
43.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 8 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 18
OPP 28
+7
43.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 7 yds to the Kans 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:3045% → 55%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
46.9%
(14:31) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete short left to Grimm,Luke broken up by Purchase,Myles PENALTY ISU Pass Interference (Purchase,Myles) 15 yards from KAN43 to ISU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
47.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 4 yds to the IowSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -14 yds · 1:1047% → 45%
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
54.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Deon Silas for no gain to the IowSt 26Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
55.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 33Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
55.0%
Tyler Perkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by O.J. Burroughs at the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3860% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7INT3 plays · -2 yds · 1:0445% → 43%
KUDrive 8TD6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1962% → 70%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
62.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 10 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3432% → 44%
Q2 4:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
69.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
69.4%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Dekkers,Hunter pass incomplete short left to Hutchinson,Xavier PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Bryant,Cobee) 15 yards from ISU27 to ISU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
68.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 53 yds to the Kans 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
66.0%
PENALTY ISU False Start (Miller,Tyler) 5 yards from KAN04 to KAN09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Clark Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10MISSED FG7 plays · 43 yds · 1:5360% → 61%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
60.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 25 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11DOWNS6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4540% → 37%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
59.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 15 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
59.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 5 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
-8
62.9%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Craig Young for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 34 yds · 3:5361% → 64%
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
61.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Douglas Emilien for 11 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13FG13 plays · 62 yds · 5:1439% → 44%
Q3 10:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
60.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Deon Silas for 3 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Deon Silas for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+7
61.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
60.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 23 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2563% → 62%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
63.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15MISSED FG20 plays · 72 yds · 5:5640% → 41%
Q3 1:52
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+11
62.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the IowSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
60.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 1 yd to the IowSt 17Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
62.3%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun Dekkers,Hunter sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ISU13 (Sampson,Caleb) PENALTY KAN Offside (Phelps,Lonnie) 5 yards from ISU17 to ISU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+13
59.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 13 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
56.2%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Sam Burt for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 49Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+9
62.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 9 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 7
OPP 40
+11
60.6%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 11 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1365% → 63%
Q4 9:57
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+1
63.3%
Reis Vernon punt for 44 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 1 yd to the IowSt 29 Jaylin Noel fumbled, recovered by Kans Torry LocklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · -13 yds · 0:3672% → 70%
ISUDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:3438% → 34%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
61.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 6 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+7
63.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-3
58.7%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · -8 yds · 2:1373% → 82%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
73.3%
(05:21) Shotgun Neal,Devin rush right for 1 yard gain to the KAN21 (Vance,O'Rien; Jackson,Kendell) PENALTY KAN Holding (Puni,Dominick) 10 yards from KAN20 to KAN10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-5
74.4%
(05:00) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass complete deep middle to Fairchild,Mason for 17 yards to the KAN27 (Tampa,T.J.) PENALTY KAN Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from KAN10 to KAN05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-6
81.3%
Jalon Daniels sacked by MJ Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+7
81.8%
Reis Vernon punt for 38 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 7 yds to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20MISSED FG10 plays · 23 yds · 2:3031% → 20%
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
69.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 7 yds to the Kans 36Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
72.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for no gain to the Kans 36Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+7
73.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Deon Silas for 7 yds to the Kans 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+5
73.4%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Dekkers,Hunter rush middle for 6 yards gain to the KAN23 (Miller,Rich) PENALTY KAN Illegal Substitution 5 yards from KAN29 to KAN24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
69.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the Kans 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
Jalon Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 18
+15.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:57
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel
-12.7
TD · Q2 2:51
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 9 yds for a TD, (B. Clark Run For Two-point Conversion)
-10.4