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OKST

Oklahoma State 36 at Baylor 25

BAY
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreOKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:26 · Blake Shapen pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsOne-score game
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−15.7Score differential−5.7Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7One-score game+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Spencer Sanders 1 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick) — OKST win probability +9.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:23: Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 49 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +12.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:58: Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +15.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q3 7:14: Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) — OKST win probability +14.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:14: Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 70 yds for a TD, (Blake Shapen pass to Gavin Holmes for Two-Point Conversion) — BAY win probability +9.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OKST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 10:46BAY 4th & 8 at OKST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:32OKST 4th & 1 at BAY 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:26BAY 4th & 9 at OKST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:45OKST 4th & 4 at BAY 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.9
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02OKST 4th & 3 at OKST 41, up 6
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:23BAY 4th & 1 at OKST 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−2.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−8.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:43BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:26BAY 4th & 2 at BAY 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:38OKST 4th & 1 at BAY 1, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−13.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:14BAY 4th & 5 at BAY 30, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:33OKST 4th & 7 at BAY 41, up 8
    Close callPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−1.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:04BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.2%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:48OKST 4th & 9 at BAY 9, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−7.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:26BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:09OKST 4th & 11 at OKST 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:24OKST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:23BAY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:58BAY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:14OKST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:14BAY Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:0550% → 51%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+28
49.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
50
+17
50.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 17 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
50.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 1 yd to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+14
50.4%
Qualan Jones run for 14 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
50.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for no gain to the OKSt 18Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
51.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 2 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
50.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
51.0%
John Mayers 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 2TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:0249% → 52%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.0%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 9 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
50.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 4 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jake SchultzSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
50.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 16 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
50.6%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
50.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
50.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (Gabe Hall) to the Bayl 39Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
50.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
50.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
50.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
50.7%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the Bayl 16Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
51.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 15Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
51.6%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
50.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
50.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Bayl 8Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
48.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 8 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:4649% → 49%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
49.3%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
49.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
49.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
49.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+19
48.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
50
-5
50.7%
Monaray Baldwin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+5
49.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
50
+1
49.4%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
48.8%
Issac Power punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3051% → 52%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
49.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 26Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
48.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
48.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
48.1%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul RichardsonSimilar
Q1 0:07
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+19
48.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 19 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.4%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braydon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
47.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
47.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 1 yd to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
48.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 37 yds, downed at the Bayl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
46.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1655% → 55%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
45.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
44.3%
Braydon Johnson run for no gain to the OKSt 40Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+1
44.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 41Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+30
45.2%
Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the BAYLOR 14 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kanion Williams) to the Bayl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:0646% → 46%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
45.8%
Richard Reese run for 24 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
47.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 19 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
48.6%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+3
48.5%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the OKSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
48.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the OKSt 9Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
48.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 2 yds to the OKSt 7Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
46.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 1
OPP 7
0
45.8%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the OKSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2857% → 59%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
43.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 7 yds to the OKSt 14Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+4
42.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.5%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul RichardsonSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
42.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (Preston Wilson) to the OKSt 13Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+24
42.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 24 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.8%
Ollie Gordon run for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
40.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
40.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Stephon Johnson Jr.Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+14
41.3%
Tom Hutton punt for 44 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for 14 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2643% → 40%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
42.9%
Blake Shapen sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 16
OWN 22
-1
42.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 21Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+4
41.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+15
40.3%
Issac Power punt for 45 yds , Brennan Presley returns for 15 yds to the OKSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:4962% → 74%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
38.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 42Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+12
39.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the Bayl 46Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
37.3%
Deondre Jackson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
36.5%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+7
35.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
35.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 4 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+12
35.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 12 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
35.1%
Spencer Sanders run for 9 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.8%
Spencer Sanders 1 Yd Run (Tanner Brown Kick)Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
25.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2020% → 19%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
19.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
19.0%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0821% → 32%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
20.8%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
21.9%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+3
22.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh CameronSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
19.8%
Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
32.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 49 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 14INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2774% → 75%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
26.4%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 7 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
26.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 4 yds to the OKSt 34Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-1
24.7%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 33Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
25.1%
Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:1731% → 47%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
31.1%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 38Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+18
30.6%
Richard Reese run for 18 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
31.3%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+19
30.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 19 yds to the OKSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.5%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:1067% → 81%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
50
+49
33.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 49 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)Similar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
18.7%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Quinton Stewart) to the Bayl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3226% → 25%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 4 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
25.7%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
24.6%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
24.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3783% → 86%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
16.6%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+32
16.6%
John Paul Richardson pass complete to Bryson Green for 32 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.7%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.0%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
14.3%
Tanner Brown 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1917% → 26%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.9%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
16.6%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+70
25.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 70 yds for a TD, (Blake Shapen pass to Gavin Holmes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 4:2174% → 80%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
26.1%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 16Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+1
26.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 17Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+16
26.7%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 16 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
24.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
22.3%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 41Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
22.9%
BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (TJ Franklin) to the OKSt 46Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
21.3%
Spencer Sanders run for 10 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
20.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-2
18.6%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
18.0%
Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
20.1%
Tom Hutton punt for 36 yds, downed at the Bayl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3223% → 21%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
22.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
22.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+7
21.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 7 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+3
20.3%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
22.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 9 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
24.0%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
22.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-11
21.2%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Thomas Harper return for 11 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1788% → 90%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
12.3%
Ollie Gordon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
12.2%
Ollie Gordon run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
12.5%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 7 yds to the Bayl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
11.4%
Ollie Gordon run for 11 yds to the Bayl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
9.8%
Ollie Gordon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 7Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
8.8%
Ollie Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 10 Ollie Gordon fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer SandersSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
9.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 9Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
9.9%
Tanner Brown 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 23INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2510% → 8%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
9.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 9 yards to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+15
9.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 15 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
9.1%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
7.2%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
7.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted Jason Taylor II return for no gain to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:3193% → 97%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
6.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
6.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
5.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
5.1%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the OKSt 42Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-4
4.2%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 38Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
3.5%
Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:003% → 5%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
3.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 13 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
3.6%
Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
4.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
3.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 15 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
4.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 7 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+17
4.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:58
Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q3 7:14
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK)
-14
TD · Q3 12:23
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 49 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
+12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com