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TEX

Texas 34 at Texas Tech 37

TTU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:45 · Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 77Pregame prior−11.2Home team on offense−3.8Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:55: SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +18.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:54: Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 19 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +35.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:21: Trey Wolff 45 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +33.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Bert Auburn 48 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +44.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Trey Wolff 20 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +19.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:14TTU 4th & 7 at TEX 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:41TTU 4th & 4 at TEX 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:52TEX 4th & 15 at TTU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:56TTU 4th & 12 at TTU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:35TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:45TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.0%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:38TTU 4th & 5 at TTU 40, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:48TEX 4th & 2 at TTU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.9%−1.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:00TTU 4th & 4 at TEX 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:16TTU 4th & 9 at TEX 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:40TTU 4th & 1 at TEX 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−1.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:26TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:18TTU 4th & 2 at TEX 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−4.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−19.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:23TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−6.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:12TTU 4th & 4 at TEX 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−12.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:26TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:10TTU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.3%−6.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:21TTU 4th & 7 at TEX 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−9.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−26.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:36TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:41TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:06TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:07TEX Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:27TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:55TTU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:54TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:5470% → 70%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
30.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Bijan Robinson for 22 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
30.3%
Keilan Robinson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
30.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 35 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:2730% → 35%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
30.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
30.3%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
30.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 46Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+8
30.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 8 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
30.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-4
30.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-5
30.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 44Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+13
30.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 13 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 7
OPP 43
+7
30.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 7 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
31.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
31.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for no gain to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+7
31.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 7 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.7%
Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Tahj BrooksSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
31.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 16 yds to the Texas 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
32.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the Texas 7Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
32.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 2 yds Myles Price fumbled, recovered by TexTc Myles PriceSimilar
Q1 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
31.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 1 yd to the Texas 4Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
34.5%
Donovan Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 3:4366% → 65%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
33.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
33.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 15 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
33.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
33.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 14 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
33.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 9 yds to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+5
33.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 5 yds to the TexTc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
33.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
33.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 16Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-6
34.1%
Hudson Card sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. and Tyree Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 22Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
34.7%
Bert Auburn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 4:3034% → 42%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
34.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
34.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
34.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
34.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 7 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+19
35.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 19 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
36.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-10
35.8%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 23
OWN 47
-3
35.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 26
OWN 44
+15
35.0%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
37.5%
Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
38.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Brady Boyd for 13 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
38.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
42.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 17 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:4059% → 61%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 6 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+16
39.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 16 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-25
39.2%
Hudson Card pass intercepted Reggie Pearson Jr. return for 25 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4943% → 41%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
42.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
42.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-5
42.6%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-1
41.9%
Donovan Smith sacked by D'Shawn Jamison for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
41.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3458% → 66%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
41.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+8
42.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
41.7%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 2
50
-4
41.0%
Bijan Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
42.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 15 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
33.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 39 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0936% → 35%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.2%
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
36.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+7
35.3%
Austin McNamara punt for 59 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 7 yds to the Texas 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 3:5664% → 77%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
36.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Agiye Hall for 7 yds to the Texas 25Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
35.5%
Keilan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
36.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
36.0%
Hudson Card run for 8 yds to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
34.4%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 38Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
35.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
33.9%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
34.4%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
33.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 8 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
31.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 15 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.9%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+23
31.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 23 yds to the TexTc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
22.8%
Bijan Robinson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1125% → 25%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
25.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
24.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
24.6%
Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:1726% → 25%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
25.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
24.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (5 Yards) to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
26.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
25.2%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3275% → 75%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
24.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
24.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 5 yds to the TexTc 34Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
24.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
25.2%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 13FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:2225% → 31%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
25.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 5 yds to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
25.8%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+8
25.8%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
26.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the Texas 45Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
26.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+7
25.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Brady Boyd for 7 yds to the Texas 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.0%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Nehemiah Martinez I for 3 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
28.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 12 yds to the Texas 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
28.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+10
27.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 10 yds to the Texas 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
27.9%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the Texas 9Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
31.1%
Trey Wolff 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4373% → 88%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.3%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
27.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Casey Cain for 14 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
24.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
25.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+9
27.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 9 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+22
25.7%
Hudson Card run for 22 yds to the TexTc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
24.0%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 40Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+40
12.0%
Bijan Robinson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2715% → 35%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
14.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 24 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
16.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 15 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
16.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 11 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
17.0%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+9
16.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 9 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
16.6%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the Texas 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
17.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mason Tharp for 13 yds to the Texas 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2575% → 73%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.2%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
26.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Roschon Johnson for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
27.5%
Daniel Trejo punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Myles Price at the TexTc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:5228% → 27%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
27.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 9 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
29.8%
Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
29.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 43Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
27.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 4 yds to the TexTc 47Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
28.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
31.1%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
30.9%
Donovan Smith sacked by DeMarvion Overshown for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+35
28.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 35 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
33.0%
Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 9Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
33.1%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the Texas 4Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
30.9%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the Texas 2Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
26.7%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the Texas 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3280% → 78%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
20.1%
Bijan Robinson run for 1 yd to the Texas 3Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
20.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 9
OWN 3
-2
21.3%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-2 Yards) to the Texas 1Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
21.2%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+20
22.2%
Daniel Trejo punt for 49 yds , Myles Price returns for 20 yds to the Texas 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:0132% → 61%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
31.7%
SaRodorick Thompson run for no gain to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
31.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
27.5%
Donovan Smith run for 6 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+5
25.6%
Donovan Smith run for 5 yds to the Texas 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
61.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 19 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:1751% → 52%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
48.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
45.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
47.5%
Card, Hudson pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference 5 yards to the TEXAS35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.6%
Bijan Robinson run for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
42.9%
Bijan Robinson run for 2 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
43.9%
Hudson Card pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
47.6%
Daniel Trejo punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 4:3955% → 94%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.0%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 17Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+26
54.6%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 26 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
60.3%
Tahj Brooks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 44Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
60.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 5 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
60.7%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by TexTc Donovan Smith , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 3
50
+6
58.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 6 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
63.0%
Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
63.4%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
65.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
66.5%
Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
65.7%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 0:21
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
93.5%
Trey Wolff 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:1112% → 63%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
87.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Tarique Milton for 28 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
82.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 8 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+48
37.5%
Bert Auburn 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Bijan Robinson run for no gain to the TexTc 25 Bijan Robinson fumbled, recovered by TexTcSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
65.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 17 yds to the Texas 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
65.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the Texas 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.6%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the Texas 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.2%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
79.2%
Trey Wolff 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Bert Auburn 48 Yd Field Goal
-44.9
TD · Q4 7:54
Donovan Smith pass complete to Baylor Cupp for 19 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+35.6
FG · Q4 0:21
Trey Wolff 45 yd FG GOOD
+33.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com