Try the model
BAY

Baylor 31 at Iowa State 24

ISU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:34 · Issac Power punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−33.9Score differential−13.0Garbage-time factor−12.0Pregame prior+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:46: Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK) — ISU win probability +15.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 6:05: Richard Reese run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +14.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:37: Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 38 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +9.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:16: Jirehl Brock 37 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick) — ISU win probability +11.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:55: Jace Gilbert 28 Yd Field Goal — ISU win probability +10.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30BAY 4th & 3 at ISU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40BAY 4th & 2 at ISU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55ISU 4th & 2 at BAY 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:27BAY 4th & 6 at ISU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:03ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:44ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:50BAY 4th & 4 at ISU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.2%−2.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:11ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:01ISU 4th & 17 at ISU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:51BAY 4th & 20 at BAY 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−5.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19ISU 4th & 4 at BAY 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:34BAY 4th & 3 at BAY 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:55ISU 4th & 11 at BAY 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:40BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:55ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:09BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:46ISU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:05BAY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:37BAY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:16ISU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 5:5042% → 45%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
57.6%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
57.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
57.7%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
57.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
57.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 1 yd to the IowSt 30Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
57.3%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+4
57.4%
Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+4
57.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 4 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
57.1%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the IowSt 11Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
57.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray BaldwinSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-1
57.2%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 12Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+12
54.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2555% → 58%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
55.6%
Jirehl Brock run for 4 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.2%
Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
54.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
55.2%
Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
55.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
55.3%
Jirehl Brock run for 9 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+28
55.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 28 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.6%
Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the Bayl 1Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
55.5%
Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
54.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jared RusSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1342% → 45%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
57.6%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
57.0%
Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
56.7%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
56.1%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
55.9%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
50
+40
55.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 40 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
55.0%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 11Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
55.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
55.4%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
54.6%
John Mayers 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5756% → 54%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
55.5%
Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
55.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jirehl BrockSimilar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
54.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for no gain to the Bayl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3146% → 58%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+36
54.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 36 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
52.5%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+4
52.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+17
52.8%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
50.6%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the IowSt 8Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
49.3%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Will McDonald IV) to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
49.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1643% → 42%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
43.0%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
42.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
42.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-2
41.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 51 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5157% → 57%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
42.7%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
42.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 24Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-2
41.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Gerry Vaughn and Colby Reeder for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
42.9%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:4442% → 56%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
41.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 42Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
42.4%
Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
42.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 6 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
42.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 8 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
41.1%
Jirehl Brock run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
42.4%
Hunter Dekkers run for no gain to the Bayl 32Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+8
40.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
55.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
49.6%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2952% → 51%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 1 yd to the IowSt 26Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
51.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the IowSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1053% → 50%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
47.2%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+7
47.0%
Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
47.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
49.6%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2951% → 48%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
51.0%
Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-1
51.3%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 32Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
49.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
48.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 61 yds, downed at the Bayl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:5550% → 72%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
50.3%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 9Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+10
49.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
48.1%
BAYLOR Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 14Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+18
48.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 18 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
47.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 17 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
44.9%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the IowSt 48Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
44.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
44.0%
Blake Shapen run for no gain to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Will McDonald IV) to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
42.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the IowSt 19Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
27.8%
Richard Reese run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:0130% → 26%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Deon SilasSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.9%
Deon Silas run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
29.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
30.9%
Hunter Dekkers run for 2 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-3
30.3%
Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 40Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 40
-6
27.8%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
25.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5973% → 72%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
27.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 13 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
25.1%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 40Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
25.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin HolmesSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-10
25.4%
Blake Shapen sacked by O'Rien Vance and Will McDonald IV for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 30Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 20
OWN 30
+2
28.4%
Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:2125% → 21%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
25.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 18Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+2
25.2%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+16
24.1%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 16 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
25.2%
Hunter Dekkers run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
24.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
24.9%
Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
25.3%
Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
50
+3
25.3%
Hunter Dekkers run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
23.9%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin NoelSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
21.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for no gain to the Bayl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3381% → 94%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
18.8%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+8
17.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 8 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
15.1%
Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
5.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 38 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:217% → 19%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.5%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Miller) to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
6.3%
Hunter Dekkers run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
6.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-11
6.4%
Hunter Dekkers sacked by Victor Obi for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 27Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 21
OWN 27
+27
5.8%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 27 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
6.7%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 9 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
7.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Easton DeanSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
18.6%
Jirehl Brock 37 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 4:3686% → 94%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
14.4%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 16Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
13.0%
Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
12.8%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.5%
Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
11.5%
Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
11.2%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
9.3%
Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
8.3%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
6.6%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
6.5%
Issac Power punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 1:305% → 16%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
5.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 8 yds to the IowSt 26Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-5
5.6%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
5.0%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+50
4.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 50 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
7.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing Passer (Timothy Dawn) to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
7.4%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
7.4%
Hunter Dekkers run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+11
5.5%
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
7.7%
Hunter Dekkers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 6Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.3%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 0
OPP 6
-5
6.7%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Miller) to the Bayl 11Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
5.2%
Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier HutchinsonSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
15.7%
Jace Gilbert 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2595% → 95%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 12
50
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:46
Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK)
+15.6
TD · Q3 6:05
Richard Reese run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q4 7:16
Jirehl Brock 37 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com