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DUKE

Duke 27 at Kansas 35

KU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:16 · Reis Vernon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense+25.1Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor+16.4Score differential+4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:35: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 73 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +5.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 19 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +10.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:25: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 36 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +6.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:54: Jordan Waters run for 3 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:40: Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 27 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:36KU 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:41DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36KU 4th & 3 at DUKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:17DUKE 4th & 5 at KU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:11DUKE 4th & 1 at KU 25, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:27DUKE 4th & 1 at KU 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−4.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:04DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:10DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:34KU 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, up 15
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:27DUKE 4th & 3 at KU 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:16KU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:15DUKE 4th & 7 at KU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:15DUKE 4th & 7 at KU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:25KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:40DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:35KU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04KU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:25KU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:54DUKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:42KU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.8
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:40DUKE Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KUDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:1868% → 68%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.7%
Devin Neal run for 11 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.7%
Jalon Daniels run for 8 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+22
67.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 22 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
67.8%
Devin Neal run for 24 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
67.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
67.9%
Jalon Daniels run for 5 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
67.7%
Jalon Daniels run for 4 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4533% → 33%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
67.2%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
67.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+4
67.4%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+16
67.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 64 yds , O.J. Burroughs returns for 16 yds to the Kans 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:0667% → 71%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
67.4%
Jalon Daniels run for 10 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.6%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
67.5%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 7 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
67.4%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for no gain to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+4
67.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 4 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
67.5%
Jalon Daniels run for 30 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 6 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:2531% → 36%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
69.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+3
69.1%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+49
69.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 49 yds to the Kans 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5FUMBLE
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:5866% → 68%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.2%
Steven McBride run for 4 yds to the Kans 29Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
66.3%
(03:06) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete short right to Skinner,Quentin PENALTY DUKE Holding (Rivers,Chandler) 6 yards from KAN29 to KAN35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.3%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds to the Kans 38Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
66.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Quentin SkinnerSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
66.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
66.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 9 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
67.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 23 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
67.7%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the Duke 21 Devin Neal fumbled, recovered by Duke Jaylen StinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2535% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
65.0%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
64.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
64.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
64.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 4
OWN 38
+4
65.0%
Porter Wilson punt for 42 yds , O.J. Burroughs returns for 4 yds to the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:4266% → 71%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+73
71.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 73 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:1829% → 34%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.7%
PENALTY KAN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from DUKE25 to DUKE40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
69.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 13 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
69.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
69.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
69.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 5 yds to the Kans 31Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+12
68.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 12 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
68.5%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Kans 16Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
68.5%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Kans 11Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
69.5%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Kans 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
68.9%
(07:55) PENALTY DUKE False Start (Barton,Graham) 5 yards from KAN07 to KAN12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
69.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Kans 11Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
69.3%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the Kans 5Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 6:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
66.3%
Charlie Ham 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5968% → 82%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
68.1%
Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the Kans 27Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
67.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 19 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
70.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
70.5%
Sevion Morrison run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+8
70.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 8 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.7%
Torry Locklin run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
70.6%
Sevion Morrison run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+16
70.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 16 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
71.5%
Jalon Daniels run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
81.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 19 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 0:5321% → 27%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
78.7%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass incomplete short right QB hurried by Robinson,Jereme PENALTY DUKE Holding (Calhoun,Jalon) 10 yards from DUKE35 to DUKE25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+15
79.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+26
79.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaylen Coleman for 26 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
77.5%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
77.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+1
78.7%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Kans 25Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
79.2%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.9%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+37
72.7%
Charlie Ham 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:1424% → 24%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
76.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
76.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 13
OWN 16
-8
77.8%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass complete deep right to Calhoun,Jalon for 13 yards to the DUKE29, out of bounds at DUKE29 PENALTY DUKE Holding (Burns,Jack) 8 yards from DUKE16 to DUKE08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 21
OWN 8
+15
78.0%
KANSAS Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Lonnie Phelps) to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
76.3%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
76.0%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+18
76.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
73.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
74.1%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
74.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+1
75.6%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Kans 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 0:4680% → 87%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
79.7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+17
80.5%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
80.9%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
87.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 36 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:0114% → 12%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
85.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
86.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
85.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
86.4%
Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
86.5%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
86.8%
PENALTY DUKE False Start (Barton,Graham) 5 yards from DUKE48 to DUKE43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
87.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:2991% → 95%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
91.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Torry LocklinSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
91.3%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+16
91.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 16 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
92.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 14 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.0%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the Kans 45Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+11
93.1%
Devin Neal run for 11 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
93.4%
Jalon Daniels sacked by Joshua Pickett for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 48
-10
93.7%
KANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+8
95.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 8 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+11
95.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 11 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 13:56
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
95.2%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Bostick Jr.,Earl) 5 yards from DUKE36 to DUKE41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
95.4%
Jalon Daniels punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 4:378% → 19%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
92.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir HagansSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+2
92.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 6Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+12
92.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.2%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
92.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+29
93.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 29 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
92.6%
Jordan Moore run for 7 yds to the Kans 41Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+38
92.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 38 yds to the Kans 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.7%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Kans 3Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5188% → 98%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
Torry Locklin run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
89.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
50
+12
91.0%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 12 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+22
91.2%
Jalon Daniels run for 22 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
91.8%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Jared CaseySimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
91.8%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+13
93.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 13 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Jalon Daniels run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:494% → 18%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
96.2%
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass incomplete short left to Moore,Jordan PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Gervin,Kalon) 15 yards from DUKE30 to DUKE45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
96.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
96.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
96.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 3 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+8
96.5%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass incomplete short right to Calhoun,Jalon broken up by Dotson,Ra'Mello, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Dotson,Ra'Mello) 8 yards from KAN48 to KAN40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
96.1%
Riley Leonard sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 46Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 16
OPP 46
0
96.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+19
96.8%
Riley Leonard run for 19 yds to the Kans 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
82.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 27 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:0696% → 96%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
50
0
95.7%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
50
0
95.9%
Jalon Daniels run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 10
50
0
96.3%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 10
50
0
96.2%
Reis Vernon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the Duke 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 64 yds · 0:544% → 6%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+40
96.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 40 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
93.9%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the KANSAS 49 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Gavin Potter) to the Kans 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
91.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 2 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+1
92.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 1 yd to the Kans 31Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
93.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
93.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
97.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-1
97.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:40
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 27 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
-14.5
TD · Q4 8:54
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q2 1:04
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 19 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chandler Rivers) declined, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com