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TCU

TCU 42 at SMU 34

SMU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:49 · Jordy Sandy punt for 53 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense−23.0Score differential−11.5Garbage-time factor−7.2Pregame prior−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:16: Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 8 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +8.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:39: Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 80 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +12.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:33: Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +20.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:14: Emari Demercado run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) — TCU win probability +15.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:14: Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:18SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.8%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−6.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:50SMU 4th & 7 at TCU 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:39SMU 4th & 2 at TCU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00TCU 4th & 24 at TCU 31, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 4.5 ptsWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%−4.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:52SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:26TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:58SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:58SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:49TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:49SMU 4th & 10 at TCU 46, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    21.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:32TCU 4th & 21 at SMU 35, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:31SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:33TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:51TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:18SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:16TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:39TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:57SMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:33SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:14TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:14SMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:31TCU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:04SMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:2260% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+35
39.9%
Kendre Miller run for 35 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
39.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+19
39.9%
Kendre Miller run for 19 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
39.9%
Kendre Miller run for no gain to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
39.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:3140% → 40%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
39.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
40.0%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+1
39.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Velton Gardner for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
39.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
39.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 3:3360% → 60%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
39.7%
Max Duggan run for 13 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
39.5%
Max Duggan sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-9
39.7%
Max Duggan sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 19Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 27
OWN 19
+13
39.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
39.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4INT
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:0440% → 40%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
39.6%
Tre Siggers run for 12 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
40.0%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
39.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+14
39.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 14 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.4%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
40.4%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+10
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee PENALTY TCU Holding (Hodges-Tomlinson,Tre'Vius) 10 yards from TCU36 to TCU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
40.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
40.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
40.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:3461% → 68%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
38.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 2 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
39.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 15 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
38.4%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+19
38.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 19 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
38.0%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+10
38.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
37.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
32.3%
Kendre Miller run for 28 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:3334% → 39%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
34.2%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
34.1%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
34.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
34.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
34.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Hodges-Tomlinson,Tre'Vius) 15 yards from SMU49 to TCU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
34.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+15
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Hodges-Tomlinson,Tre'Vius) 15 yards from TCU28 to TCU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
34.9%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
34.9%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+4
34.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.0%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the TCU 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
34.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tyler LavineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.6%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 11:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.3%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5164% → 73%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.1%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+11
36.1%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
35.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
27.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 8 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:2630% → 29%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.6%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 19 Tre Siggers fumbled, recovered by SMU Tre SiggersSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
29.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Teddy Knox for 4 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+28
29.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 28 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
31.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
31.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Tre SiggersSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
29.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
17.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 80 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4220% → 27%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
20.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 19 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
21.2%
Velton Gardner run for 9 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-9
21.9%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Johnny Hodges for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+23
20.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Kee'Yon Stewart) to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
22.0%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-3
21.9%
Austin Upshaw sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+11
21.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+5
21.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
22.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
22.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Camar WheatonSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+19
26.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · -1 yds · 1:5176% → 78%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
24.1%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-8
23.9%
Max Duggan sacked by Je'lin Samuels for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 27Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+18
24.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 18 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
22.9%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from TCU45 to TCU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
21.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Gunnar HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
21.5%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emani BaileySimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 15
OWN 40
-9
21.4%
Max Duggan sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
21.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:0824% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.1%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
24.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 20 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
26.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Mordecai,Tanner pass complete short right to Siggers,Tre for 10 yards to the TCU41 (Bradford,Millard) PENALTY SMU Illegal Shift 5 yards from SMU49 to SMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
24.9%
SMU Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 18
OWN 41
0
24.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Teddy KnoxSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
23.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2679% → 83%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
21.1%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 20Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+10
21.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 10 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
20.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 3 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-15
20.8%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+3
21.3%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+18
21.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 18 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
17.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2821% → 20%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
21.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
20.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
20.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+15
20.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds , Derius Davis returns for 15 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+15
20.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds , Derius Davis returns for 15 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0984% → 85%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
15.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 8 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-5
15.7%
PENALTY TCU False Start (Coker,Andrew) 5 yards from SMU47 to TCU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
15.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 3 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
16.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
15.2%
Jordy Sandy punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 3:1619% → 40%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
18.7%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+13
18.6%
Tre Siggers run for 13 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
18.9%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
19.1%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+30
18.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 30 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Nolan Matthews-HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
21.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
20.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+45
20.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 45 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.2%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:5972% → 74%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
28.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
26.8%
Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+3
27.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+14
27.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 14 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.0%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+18
26.1%
Taye Barber pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 18 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
23.5%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-8
23.5%
Max Duggan sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 30 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by TCU Kendre Miller , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 30
-5
25.3%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game (Duggan,Max) 5 yards from SMU30 to SMU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 35
0
25.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 21
OPP 35
0
26.0%
Jordy Sandy punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0729% → 32%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
29.3%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+5
29.6%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
29.7%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
29.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+17
27.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 17 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 3:1179% → 95%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
21.3%
Kendre Miller run for 19 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
20.5%
Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+4
20.5%
Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
20.5%
Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
20.5%
Max Duggan run for 9 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:007% → 21%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.3%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
7.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 25 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
8.4%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
8.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 6 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-5
9.1%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Hickman,Branson) 5 yards from TCU39 to TCU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+14
8.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Corrales for 14 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
9.5%
Velton Gardner run for 22 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
9.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gardner,Velton rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TCU02 (Williams,Damonic) PENALTY TCU Illegal Substitution 4 yards from TCU08 to TCU04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
9.7%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:4289% → 98%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
10.6%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TCU28 to TCU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+11
10.9%
Kendre Miller run for 11 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
10.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
10.9%
Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
9.6%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+63
2.2%
Emari Demercado run for 63 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:273% → 10%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
3.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
3.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 7 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
3.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Corrales for 15 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to RJ MarylandSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
3.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
4.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ben ReddingSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
4.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+35
9.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jake Bailey for 35 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 15 yds · 1:0396% → 97%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
4.4%
Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
3.5%
Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
3.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin JohnstonSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
3.8%
Sandy,Jordy punt 23 yards to the SMU18 PENALTY SMU Personal Foul (Upshaw,Austin) 15 yards from SMU41 to SMU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
2.9%
run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+2
2.6%
run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:33
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q4 8:14
Emari Demercado run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 6:39
Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 80 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)
-12.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com