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TXST

Texas State 7 at Baylor 42

BAY
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:15 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nabors returns for 24 yds to the TexSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+35.8Score differential+30.1Garbage-time factor+10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin+16.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:45: Craig Williams 30 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick) — BAY win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:59: Ashtyn Hawkins 12 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick) — TXST win probability +3.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:59: Mason Shipley kickoff for 64 yds , Craig Williams return for 3 yds to the Bayl 4 — BAY win probability +1.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:26: Blake Shapen 35 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick) — BAY win probability +2.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:42: Gavin Holmes 28 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) — BAY win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 11 of 16
  1. Q1 15:00BAY 4th & 2 at TXST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:42TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:42BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:09BAY 4th & 4 at BAY 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:09TXST 4th & 2 at BAY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:25TXST 4th & 2 at BAY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:36TXST 4th & 4 at BAY 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:41BAY 4th & 11 at BAY 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:26BAY 4th & 1 at TXST 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:57BAY 4th & 5 at TXST 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:06TXST 4th & 5 at BAY 49, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:42TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:15TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:07TXST 4th & 1 at BAY 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:00TXST 4th & 10 at BAY 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:19TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:46TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:19TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:27TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:27BAY 4th & 6 at TXST 43, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:29BAY 4th & 6 at TXST 43, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  24. Q4 6:29TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 29, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  25. Q4 4:15TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 29, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:35BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:45BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:59TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:26BAY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:42BAY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:19BAY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:19BAY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2597% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
96.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
96.9%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.9%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+7
96.9%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard ReeseSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+18
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 18 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+10
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Yates for 10 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 3 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.3%
Richard Reese 14 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:534% → 4%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
96.1%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+4
96.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+3
96.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
96.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3396% → 96%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
96.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
96.0%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
95.9%
Issac Power punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
95.6%
Issac Power punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:444% → 5%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
95.7%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+2
95.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
95.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
95.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
95.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
95.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
95.5%
Ashtyn Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+13
95.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 13 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
95.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:4095% → 96%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.9%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
94.9%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+6
94.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
94.8%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+4
94.8%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
95.0%
Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
95.0%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
95.1%
Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+10
95.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Seth Jones for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
96.1%
Craig Williams 30 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:095% → 6%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
95.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 17 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
95.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the Bayl 35Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
95.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 31Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+9
95.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
95.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 18Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
95.0%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
95.2%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
95.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for no gain to the Bayl 9Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
95.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the Bayl 6Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
95.2%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the Bayl 4Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5595% → 94%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
94.5%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+2
94.5%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 11
OWN 3
0
94.3%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 11
OWN 3
0
94.0%
Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:426% → 10%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
94.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 18 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
93.9%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the Bayl 30Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+11
93.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
93.6%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the Bayl 12Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
89.7%
Ashtyn Hawkins 12 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 9TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 1:3393% → 96%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
92.6%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 5Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+13
92.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 5 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+13
92.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Javon Gipson for 13 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.2%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Javon GipsonSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
93.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Javon Gipson for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
94.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+35
96.3%
Blake Shapen 35 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:265% → 5%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.1%
run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.1%
run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:035% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
95.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 29 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
94.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
94.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
94.4%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
94.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 2 yds Javen Banks fumbled, recovered by TexSt Mike HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:0095% → 94%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
95.4%
Richard Reese run for 11 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.5%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
94.7%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
94.5%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
94.8%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
94.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+2
94.5%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
94.2%
Blake Shapen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:516% → 7%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+16
94.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 16 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
93.5%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
93.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
93.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2495% → 99%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
94.9%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+22
94.7%
Richard Reese run for 22 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+4
95.0%
Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+28
98.7%
Gavin Holmes 28 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-9
98.4%
Layne Hatcher sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 19
OWN 12
+6
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Calvin HillSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
98.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 37Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
98.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0899% → 99%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.9%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 Craig Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Peyton TuggleSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
98.9%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 Craig Williams fumbled, recovered by TexSt Peyton TuggleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:072% → 1%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.3%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
98.3%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
98.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
98.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the Bayl 26Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
98.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+3
98.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
98.8%
Seth Keller 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chidi OgbonnayaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:4199% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
99.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 17 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
99.8%
Richard Reese 52 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
99.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Brooks Miller for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
50
+45
99.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 45 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Richard Reese 5 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:58100% → 100%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
Kyron Drones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Hal Presley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Kyron Drones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+24
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nabors returns for 24 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+24
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Jordan Nabors returns for 24 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
99.9%
Josh Fleeks run for 11 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Josh Fleeks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+13
99.9%
Josh Fleeks run for 13 yds to the TexSt 31 Josh Fleeks fumbled, recovered by TexSt Kevin AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
100.0%
Josh Berry run for 7 yds to the Bayl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:42
Gavin Holmes 28 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick)
+3.7
TD · Q2 1:59
Ashtyn Hawkins 12 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)
-3.4
TD · Q2 0:26
Blake Shapen 35 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com