2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:02 ·
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 8:27: Andrew Glass 37 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +1.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 0:18: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 36 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +0.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:41: M. Major run for 16 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:51: Zach Schmit 25 Yd Field Goal — OU win probability +3.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:31: Drake Stoops 18 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick) — OU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:27KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 11:55OU 4th & 8 at OU 40, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q1 7:10KENT 4th & 8 at midfield, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q1 5:43OU 4th & 12 at OU 42, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%average punt
- Q1 4:06KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 17, down 2Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:48OU 4th & 4 at KENT 49, up 2Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 0:00OU 4th & 1 at OU 43, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:27KENT 4th & 7 at OU 20, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call7.8%75% to makePunt6.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 5:23OU 4th & 4 at OU 46, up 2Close callPunted · 91.7% before the snapGo for it91.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:10KENT 4th & 7 at OU 24, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.336% to convertField goalTheir call11.2%68% to makePunt8.8%−2.3average punt
- Q3 9:51OU 4th & 7 at KENT 8, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.7% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%90% to makePunt91.2%−2.3average punt
- Q3 6:29KENT 4th & 21 at KENT 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.5%−1.19% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q3 2:08KENT 4th & 1 at OU 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%71% to convertField goal1.0%−0.579% to makePunt-0.4%−1.9average punt
- Q4 14:42KENT 4th & 15 at KENT 44, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:16OU 4th & 9 at KENT 47, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:58OU 4th & 11 at OU 37, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:02OU 4th & 1 at KENT 28, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.160% to makePunt99.5%−0.5average punt
- Q4 2:57KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 34, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q3 12:41OU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:31OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT13 plays · -6 yds · 13:272% → 5%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 11:5597% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 7:103% → 5%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
95.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, off-side (Jordan Kelley) to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 30 yds · 5:4396% → 95%
Q1 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Michael Turk punt for 44 yds , Raymond James returns for no gain to the KntSt 42 KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Luke Murphy) to the KntSt 8Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+32
95.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 32 yds to the Okla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 4:064% → 5%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+4
95.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 4 yds to the KntSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 6Uncategorized8 plays · 4 yds · 0:4895% → 95%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+4
95.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 4 yds to the Okla 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+13
95.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to J.J. Hester for 13 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Theo Wease, broken up by D.J. Miller Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG15 plays · 72 yds · 6:335% → 7%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
95.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 5 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
95.2%
Collin Schlee run for 14 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, off-side (Jalen Redmond) to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
95.1%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Luke Floriea, broken up by Justin HarringtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+22
95.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 22 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 5:2393% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
90.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Daniel Parker for 12 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
90.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Daniel Parker for 9 yds to the Okla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
90.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jalil Farooq, broken up by Montre MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 46 yds · 1:5710% → 12%
Q2 1:57
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+11
89.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 11 yds to the Okla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
89.1%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by D.J. GrahamSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
89.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Bryan Bradford for 11 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
88.2%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by Ethan DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 10TD6 plays · 76 yds · 0:3691% → 91%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+13
90.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 2
50
+14
91.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 14 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
91.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 36 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
90.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 6 yds to the Okla 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+12
91.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 12 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD8 plays · 68 yds · 12:4195% → 95%
Q3 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
95.0%
M. Major run for 16 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
94.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 7 yds to the Okla 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+15
94.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marvin Mims for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (JoJo Evans) to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
94.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 6 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Drake Stoops for 9 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13FUMBLE3 plays · -3 yds · 11:306% → 7%
Q3 11:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
94.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 12 yds Collin Schlee fumbled, recovered by Okla Billy BowmanSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
92.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James KENT ST Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 14FG8 plays · 26 yds · 9:5196% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
97.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 11 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Brayden Willis, broken up by JoJo EvansSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
97.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 3 yds to the KntSt 8Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+5
97.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 5 yds to the KntSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 6:295% → 5%
OUDrive 16TD4 plays · 80 yds · 5:3199% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
99.0%
Eric Gray run for 1 yd to the Okla 21 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Bryce Sheppert) to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 57 yds · 2:081% → 0%
OUDrive 18TD4 plays · 82 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+20
99.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 20 yds to the Okla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:180% → 0%
OUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 13:16100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
100.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gavin Freeman for 1 yd to the KntSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21SF1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 9:58100% → 100%
Q4 9:58
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Michael Turk punt for 42 yds , Raymond James returns for no gain to the KntSt 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tawee Walker for 7 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jayden Gibson, broken up by D.J. Miller Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23INT7 plays · 29 yds · 6:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 5:02100% → 100%
KENTDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 2:57
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+8
100.0%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds , LV Bunkley-Shelton returns for 8 yds to the Okla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 26Uncategorized5 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:41
M. Major run for 16 yds for a TD, (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK), (Z. Schmit KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 5:31
Drake Stoops 18 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Zach Schmit Kick)
+3.2
FG · Q3 9:51
Zach Schmit 25 Yd Field Goal
+3