2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:15: Bryce Ford-Wheaton 67 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) — KU win probability +13.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:32: Daniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick) — KU win probability +18.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:59: Daniel Hishaw Jr. 30 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick) — KU win probability +32.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 4:04: Casey Legg 28 Yd Field Goal — WVU win probability +13.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:35: CJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (JT Daniels Pass to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for Two-Point Conversion) — WVU win probability +51.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 10:48KU 4th & 16 at KU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it17.3%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q1 0:00WVU 4th & 3 at KU 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.0%52% to convertField goal85.6%−0.466% to makePunt82.7%−3.3average punt
- Q1 0:00KU 4th & 2 at WVU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.7%57% to convertField goal15.0%−0.751% to makePunt14.5%−1.3average punt
- Q3 8:36WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.3%average punt
- Q3 7:00KU 4th & 1 at KU 36, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it51.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%−2.7average punt
- Q4 12:58WVU 4th & 9 at KU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snapGo for it36.5%−2.626% to convertField goalTheir call39.1%88% to makePunt24.1%−15.0average punt
- Q4 4:04WVU 4th & 11 at KU 11, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snapGo for it12.5%22% to convertField goalTheir call10.4%−2.187% to makePunt7.9%−4.6average punt
- Q4 0:00WVU 4th & 3 at KU 43, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.1%52% to convertField goal4.2%−2.928% to makePunt4.4%−2.7average punt
- Q4 2:17KU 4th & 1 at KU 42, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it93.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%−1.8average punt
- Q4 0:00WVU 4th & 5 at WVU 20, up 1Numbers favored punt by 5.0 ptsWent for it · 84.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.5%−5.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:19WVU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.5%97% to makeGo for two82.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:57KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.6%97% to makeGo for two18.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:26KU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%97% to makeGo for two18.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:32KU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.7%97% to makeGo for two27.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:59KU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.5%97% to makeGo for two77.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:35WVU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick18.2%−12.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call30.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1TD18 plays · 75 yds · 13:1980% → 79%
KUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 10:4820% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
82.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold KANSAS Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Kans 15Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
82.6%
pass incomplete to Quentin Skinner KANSAS Penalty, illegal shift. (Craig Young) to the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3TD12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0383% → 84%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+24
84.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the WESTVIR 47 KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Craig Young) to the Kans 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-20
84.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for a loss of 10 yards to the Kans 41 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Zach Frazier) to the Kans 41Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+5
83.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 5 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+8
84.0%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds to the Kans 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4TD10 plays · 79 yds · 0:0318% → 23%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
82.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 14 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
82.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 11 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-3
81.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
82.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 3 yds to the WVirg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
81.3%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Quentin Skinner for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Malachi Ruffin) to the WVirg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
77.1%
Mason Fairchild 10 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5Uncategorized5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+10
85.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Torry Locklin for a 1ST down WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing passer (Taijh Alston) to the WVirg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 6TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 97%
WVUDrive 7TD4 plays · 75 yds · 13:1584% → 88%
Q2 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+67
84.0%
Bryce Ford-Wheaton 67 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
88.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the WVirg 42 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Zach Frazier) to the WVirg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 8:2624% → 23%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
81.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 9 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
80.1%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 7 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+20
79.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 20 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5582% → 82%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
81.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 11 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
79.7%
KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Lonnie Phelps) to the WVirg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
81.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
50
+19
80.6%
CJ Donaldson run for 4 yds to the WESTVIR 46 KANSAS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Eddie Wilson) to the Kans 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 0:5823% → 24%
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
76.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the WVirg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
77.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kevin Terry for 12 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
78.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 20 yds to the WVirg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 11:3239% → 45%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Mason Fairchild, broken up by Marcis FloydSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
60.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 6 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.7%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Mason Fairchild, broken up by Wesley McCormickSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+40
55.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 40 yds to the WVirg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 8:3667% → 48%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+9
44.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to CJ Donaldson for 9 yds to the WVirg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 7:0052% → 61%
Q3 7:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
48.2%
Reis Vernon punt for 40 yds , Reese Smith returns for no gain to the WVirg 24Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
38.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 5 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
37.5%
Jalon Daniels pass incomplete to Lawrence Arnold, broken up by Jordan JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15TD6 plays · 24 yds · 4:0062% → 69%
WVUDrive 16FG14 plays · 65 yds · 2:0239% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
39.1%
JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 19 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+14
43.7%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 4 yds to the WESTVIR 47 for a 1ST down KANSAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Edwin White-Schultz) to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
46.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 1 yd to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
46.4%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Polendey, broken up by Craig YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17TD4 plays · 65 yds · 10:5983% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
4.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 30 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 18FG17 plays · 64 yds · 4:0417% → 10%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
8.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
8.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Justin Johnson Jr. for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+22
8.4%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 22 yds to the Kans 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+15
10.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 15 yds to the Kans 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
14.0%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Ja'Quay Hubbard) to the Kans 10Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
12.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Treylan Davis) to the Kans 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1793% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 20TD14 plays · 85 yds · 0:3816% → 92%
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
CJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (JT Daniels Pass to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
86.5%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Kaden Prather, broken up by Craig YoungSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+10
84.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
87.8%
JT Daniels pass incomplete to Jeremiah Aaron, broken up by Cobee BryantSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
86.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 14 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
90.6%
JT Daniels pass complete to Justin Johnson Jr. for 8 yds to the Kans 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+25
91.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 25 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+21
91.5%
JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 21 yds to the Kans 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-91.5
TD · Q4 0:35
CJ Donaldson 1 Yd Run (JT Daniels Pass to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for Two-Point Conversion)
+51.4
TD · Q4 10:59
Daniel Hishaw Jr. 30 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)
-32