Try the model
BAY

Baylor 20 at BYU 26

BYU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:44 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingOffense timeoutsDefense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 52Pregame prior+6.2Home team on offense+1.3Time remaining−0.1Offense timeouts+0.0Defense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:02: Chase Roberts 20 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +13.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:53: Qualan Jones 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +13.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:28: Jaren Hall 22 Yd pass from Chase Roberts (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +17.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:01: Ben Sims 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +27.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Lopini Katoa 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — BYU win probability +21.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:31BYU 4th & 9 at BAY 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:24BAY 4th & 13 at BAY 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:15BAY 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 19, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:43BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:44BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:02BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:51BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:47BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.9%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:15BYU 4th & 3 at BAY 21, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−11.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04BAY 4th & 16 at BAY 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−6.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:45BYU 4th & 7 at BAY 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−3.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:08BAY 4th & 6 at BYU 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:08BYU 4th & 9 at BAY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−13.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−32.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 1:37BAY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:02BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:53BAY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:28BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:01BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2859% → 60%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
59.2%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
59.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+14
59.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 14 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.5%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
59.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 12 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
59.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 21 yds to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
59.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
59.7%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+1
59.6%
Jaren Hall run for 1 yd to the Bayl 10Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
59.7%
Jake Oldroyd 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:0640% → 40%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Seth JonesSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.7%
Jones, Qualan rush for 3 yards to the BAYLOR28, PENALTY BYU offside (Batty, Tyler) 5 yards to the BAYLOR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
59.6%
Taye McWilliams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
59.6%
Taye McWilliams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
59.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.3%
Taye McWilliams run for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-4
59.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Ben Bywater for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 48Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
60.0%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal PresleySimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 13
OWN 48
+3
60.4%
Issac Power punt for 45 yds , Talmage Gunther returns for 3 yds to the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2960% → 60%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
59.9%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
59.9%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+2
59.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 2 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+5
59.4%
Rehkow, Ryan punt 57 yards to the BAYLOR27, Holmes, Gavin return 9 yards to the BAYLOR36, PENALTY BAYLOR running into kicker 5 yards to the BYU21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
60.1%
Jaren Hall sacked by Matt Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+6
60.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+10
59.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 10 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
59.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:3840% → 39%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
60.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 3 yds to the Bayl 38Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
60.0%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
59.9%
Taye McWilliams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
59.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Taye McWilliams for 7 yds to the BYU 46 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 44Similar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 13
OWN 44
+8
60.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
59.6%
Taye McWilliams run for 3 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
59.8%
Blake Shapen sacked by Lorenzo Fauatea for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 7
50
0
61.1%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1661% → 60%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
60.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-1
60.8%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+6
60.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+6
60.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 44 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for 6 yds to the Bayl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:0040% → 37%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
60.1%
Shapen, Blake pass complete to Sims, Ben for 7 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Byers, Gavin) 10 yards to the BAYLOR33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
61.4%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Armani WinfieldSimilar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+1
61.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 1 yd to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+2
62.2%
Taye McWilliams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
62.7%
Issac Power punt for 51 yds , Talmage Gunther returns for no gain to the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5861% → 60%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
61.3%
Jaren Hall sacked by Devin Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 12Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
61.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
60.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
60.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4140% → 37%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
60.5%
Reese, Richard rush for loss of 1 yard to the BAYLOR39, PENALTY BYU offside (Summers, Gabe) 5 yards to the BAYLOR45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 5
OWN 45
-6
60.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Caden Haws for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 39Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-5
61.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Seth Jones) to the Bayl 34Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
62.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
63.0%
Issac Power punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1062% → 61%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
61.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 6 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-2
62.3%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
61.9%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
61.4%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10TD
15 plays · 68 yds · 6:1338% → 53%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
61.6%
Qualan Jones run for 9 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+15
60.2%
Baldwin, Monaray rush for loss of 1 yard to the BAYLOR40, PENALTY BYU personal foul (Mandell, D'Angelo) 15 yards to the BYU44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
59.8%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
59.8%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+10
60.2%
Qualan Jones run for 10 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
59.1%
Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
59.2%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+7
60.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
59.2%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+2
59.2%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
59.0%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+11
59.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 11 yds to the BYU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.9%
Dillon Doyle run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Qualan Jones 1 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:3452% → 65%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.0%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
52.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
53.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 14 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
55.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
55.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Christopher BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
55.3%
Jaren Hall run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+13
54.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Kody Epps for 13 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
68.3%
Chase Roberts 20 Yd pass from Jaren Hall (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
65.2%
Oldroyd, Jake kickoff 58 yards to the BAYLOR7, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BYU kickoff out of bounds (Oldroyd, Jake) 5 yards to the BYU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
64.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:0336% → 54%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
63.8%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 24Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
64.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben SimsSimilar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+19
65.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 19 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
61.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 18 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
60.2%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
60.4%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+12
60.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 12 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
58.9%
Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Kaleb Hayes) to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.9%
Qualan Jones 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 4:3751% → 60%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
53.4%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
50.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
49.6%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
51.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
54.3%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
54.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 13 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
55.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 5 yds to the Bayl 34Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
56.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
56.4%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
56.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+4
54.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Bayl 21Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
60.0%
Jake Oldroyd 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0645% → 43%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
54.7%
Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
54.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 2 yds to the Bayl 27Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-7
54.7%
Blake Shapen sacked by John Nelson for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 20Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 11
OWN 20
-5
57.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Bryson Jackson) to the Bayl 15Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+2
57.4%
Issac Power punt for 41 yds , Talmage Gunther returns for 2 yds to the BYU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:3562% → 82%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
61.6%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Roberts, Chase, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Johnson, Lorando) 15 yards to the BAYLOR39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
62.6%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the Bayl 39Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
62.3%
Christopher Brooks run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+11
62.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 11 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
63.8%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
81.7%
Jaren Hall 22 Yd pass from Chase Roberts (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:2125% → 54%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
75.5%
Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+13
76.3%
Craig Williams run for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
75.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 1 yd to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
75.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 3 yds to the Bayl 39Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
75.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 12 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
74.8%
Qualan Jones run for 11 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
75.0%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Kelsey Johnson) to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+3
76.6%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+13
77.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 13 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
73.2%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jakob Robinson) to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
73.3%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 2
OPP 3
-1
73.5%
Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 4Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
46.5%
Ben Sims 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:1558% → 59%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
59.8%
Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
56.5%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Katoa, Lopini, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Walcott, Al) 10 yards to the BYU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
61.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
59.7%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Katoa, Lopini, PENALTY BAYLOR personal foul (Doyle, Dillon) 15 yards to the BAYLOR44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
63.7%
Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
63.4%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 45Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+9
59.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Dallin Holker for 9 yds to the Bayl 36Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
59.6%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Blake Freeland) to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
58.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3649% → 53%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.6%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+17
51.0%
Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Lorenzo Fauatea) to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.6%
Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+8
45.9%
Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 49Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
44.9%
Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-1
44.0%
Craig Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 47Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
47.1%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20MISSED FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 1:5957% → 60%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
57.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
56.1%
Jaren Hall run for 13 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
57.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for no gain to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
53.9%
Jaren Hall run for 9 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+7
55.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.1%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Brayden CosperSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
57.3%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete to Cosper, Brayden, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Jones, Matt) 15 yards to the BAYLOR46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
62.4%
Hall, Jaren rush for 2 yards to the BAYLOR44, PENALTY BYU holding (Suamataia, Kingsley) 10 yards to the BYU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+37
57.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 37 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
65.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the Bayl 18Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
67.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
64.4%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
60.4%
Jake Oldroyd 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
49.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 47%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
41.1%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the BYU 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
41.1%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-10
43.3%
Williams, Craig rush for 17 yards to the BYU1, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Sims, Ben) 10 yards to the BYU28, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+3
46.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
53.3%
Isaiah Hankins 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
65.4%
Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the Bayl 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+3
63.1%
Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Bayl 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
59.6%
Jake Oldroyd 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
65.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 20 yds to the Bayl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
65.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the Bayl 3Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.7%
Lopini Katoa 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
88.3%
Hall, Jaren pass attempt to Rex, Isaac failed, PENALTY BAYLOR holding (Johnson, Lorando) 2 yards to the BAYLOR1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 25Uncategorized
14 plays · 14 yds · 0:0024% → 11%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
75.7%
Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the BYU 21Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
75.7%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
82.1%
Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan JonesSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+3
85.8%
Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
75.7%
Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the BYU 10Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+2
74.4%
Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 8Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+3
79.8%
Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
74.4%
Craig Williams run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.4%
Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the BYU 4Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 0
OPP 4
-5
75.5%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Connor Galvin) to the BYU 9Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
83.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 3 yds to the BYU 6Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 0
OPP 6
-5
81.4%
BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Grant Miller) to the BYU 11Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
0
88.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:01
Ben Sims 4 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
-27
TD · OT2 0:00
Lopini Katoa 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+21.1
TD · Q3 1:28
Jaren Hall 22 Yd pass from Chase Roberts (Jake Oldroyd Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com