2022 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2022 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadTNTC aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreTNTC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:12 · Nicholas Bigelow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the Kans 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:06: Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:07: Devin Parker 28 yd FG GOOD — TNTC win probability +0.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:23: Jalon Daniels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:07: Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:21: Devin Neal run for 80 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TNTC made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 13:19TNTC 4th & 11 at TNTC 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 9:55TNTC 4th & 11 at TNTC 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 4:42TNTC 4th & 8 at KU 33, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%49% to makePunt4.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:21TNTC 4th & 2 at TNTC 33, down 21Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:07TNTC 4th & 9 at KU 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call3.0%87% to makePunt2.2%−0.8average punt
- Q2 8:46KU 4th & 2 at TNTC 2, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%48% to convertField goal95.8%−0.494% to makePunt94.2%−2.1average punt
- Q2 6:47TNTC 4th & 6 at TNTC 6, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 1:36TNTC 4th & 17 at TNTC 18, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q3 9:27KU 4th & 6 at TNTC 22, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%72% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 8:12TNTC 4th & 19 at TNTC 13, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 8:12TNTC 4th & 19 at TNTC 13, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 4:34TNTC 4th & 10 at KU 10, down 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.124% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%88% to makePunt0.5%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:26TNTC 4th & 13 at TNTC 46, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 2:40TNTC 4th & 5 at KU 32, down 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%42% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.151% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TNTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:26KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:06KU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:23KU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:07KU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:21KU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:25KU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:46KU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:00TNTC Touchdown, down 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTNTCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:413% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:5397% → 97%
TNTCDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:313% → 4%
KUDrive 4TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4996% → 97%
TNTCDrive 5MISSED FG TD11 plays · 42 yds · 4:243% → 3%
Q1 9:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
96.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Metrius Fleming for 7 yds to the TnTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
96.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Willie Miller for 10 yds to the Kans 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
96.5%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Metrius Fleming for 9 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+61
97.0%
Devin Parker 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jereme Robinson for a TD , Cobee Bryant return for 61 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:213% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 7FG8 plays · 23 yds · 3:143% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8DOWNS11 plays · 60 yds · 5:1497% → 97%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
96.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 27 yds to the TnTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
96.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Ky Thomas for 1 yd to the TnTch 34Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+13
96.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds to the TnTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:594% → 4%
Q2 8:46
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
96.5%
PENALTY KAN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TTU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD6 plays · 22 yds · 3:2497% → 98%
Q2 6:47
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
97.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Daniel Hishaw Jr. for 5 yds to the TnTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 1:474% → 4%
KUDrive 12TD8 plays · 63 yds · 1:2998% → 99%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
97.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kevin Terry for 7 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
97.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 4 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 12 yds to the TnTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
97.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 10 yds to the TnTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
97.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kevin Terry for 14 yds to the TnTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
98.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 10 yds to the TnTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete short right to Skinner,Quentin PENALTY TTU Pass Interference (Danley,Trace) 4 yards from TTU06 to TTU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14MISSED FG11 plays · 53 yds · 5:3399% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+7
99.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Steven McBride for 7 yds to the TnTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:150% → 0%
KUDrive 16INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 17MISSED FG10 plays · 29 yds · 3:311% → 0%
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
99.5%
Lem Wash pass complete to Willie Miller for 9 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 21 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Shotgun Allen,Jayvian rush middle for 0 yards to the TTU25 (Potter,Gavin) PENALTY TTU Illegal Formation 5 yards from TTU25 to TTU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Lem Wash pass complete to Hunter Barnhart for 8 yds to the TnTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Bradley Clark for 10 yds to the TnTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
PENALTY TTU Delay Of Game (Stachyra,Spencer) 5 yards from KAN49 to TTU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Nicholas Bigelow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the Kans 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
99.9%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 21INT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:570% → 0%
KUDrive 22TD5 plays · 25 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-10
99.9%
Shotgun Thomas,Ky rush right for 6 yards gain to the TTU14 (Reliford,Josh) PENALTY KAN Holding (Doiron,Deondre) 10 yards from TTU20 to TTU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+16
99.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Steven McBride for 16 yds to the TnTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 23TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Justin Pegues for no gain to the TnTch 35Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+21
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to O.J. Ross for 21 yds to the Kans 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Metrius Fleming for 5 yds to the Kans 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
100.0%
Shotgun Oatsvall,Jeremiah pass incomplete short right PENALTY KAN Roughing The Passer (McCaskill,Lorenzo) 15 yards from KAN33 to KAN18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Willie Miller for 9 yds to the Kans 9Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Shotgun Oatsvall,Jeremiah pass incomplete short right to Ross,O.J. PENALTY KAN Holding (Potter,Gavin) 5 yards from KAN09 to KAN04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Jeremiah Oatsvall pass complete to Heath Price for 4 yds for a TD, (Devin Parker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · 12 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:07
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+1.9
FG · Q2 14:07
Devin Parker 28 yd FG GOOD
-0.8
TD · Q2 3:23
Jalon Daniels run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+0.6