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ORE

Oregon 34 at Oregon State 38

ORST
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:29 · Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−0.4Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:47: Jordan James run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +15.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +14.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:24: Isaiah Newell run for 15 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +15.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:13: Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +26.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:11: Isaiah Newell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +27.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 10:20ORST 4th & 8 at ORE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:33ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−4.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:29ORE 4th & 3 at ORST 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:35ORST 4th & 9 at ORST 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:01ORE 4th & 9 at ORST 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:45ORE 4th & 13 at ORST 35, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:11ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−2.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−8.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:05ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:23ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:46ORE 4th & 4 at ORST 24, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−7.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:57ORE 4th & 6 at ORST 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−9.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:24ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 13, up 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:39ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.0%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:58ORE 4th & 3 at ORST 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−6.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−23.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:57ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:33ORST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:47ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:02ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:57ORST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:24ORST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:13ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:11ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:1455% → 56%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
55.5%
Gulbranson, Ben pass complete to Harrison, Tre'Shaun for 6 yards to the OREGONST33, PENALTY OREGONST holding 10 yards to the OREGONST17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+14
55.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 14 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
55.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
55.8%
Jam Griffin run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
50
+17
56.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 17 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
56.3%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-1
56.4%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Keyon Ware-Hudson and Noah Sewell for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
56.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+50
56.4%
Everett Hayes 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1844% → 46%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
56.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
56.1%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
56.3%
Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
54.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 44 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1755% → 58%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
54.3%
Ben Gulbranson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.6%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+36
55.3%
Jam Griffin run for 21 yds to the OREGONST 36 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
55.8%
Damien Martinez run for 7 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+10
55.8%
Jam Griffin run for 10 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
55.8%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the Oregn 3Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
55.2%
Jam Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5343% → 43%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.3%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
56.6%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
56.3%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+8
56.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 8 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
55.9%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
55.4%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
55.1%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
55.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+5
56.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 3
OPP 15
-1
56.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3858% → 56%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
57.5%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
57.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
56.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2643% → 42%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
56.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 18 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
56.0%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
56.1%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-5
55.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
56.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
58.1%
Alex Bales punt blocked by Cade Brownholtz blocked by Cade Brownholtz Jack Colletto return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
50
-30
60.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Christian Gonzalez return for 30 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:5845% → 40%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
55.1%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-5
56.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-1
56.9%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 13
OPP 35
-8
59.8%
Bo Nix sacked by Sione Lolohea and James Rawls for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2661% → 62%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
61.2%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
61.9%
Damien Martinez run for 14 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
62.6%
Silas Bolden run for 14 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
62.7%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
63.0%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+1
62.1%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
61.7%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
15 plays · 95 yds · 3:4140% → 58%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
59.9%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+2
59.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+3
60.6%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
59.5%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+26
60.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 26 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
57.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 3
50
+7
55.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
56.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
56.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 16 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
54.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+4
54.8%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
42.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
42.1%
Troy Franklin 9 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
47.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4053% → 52%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
47.4%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
46.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
48.2%
Alex Bales punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jesiah Irish at the OrgSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-33
49.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Jeffrey Bassa return for 33 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.8%
Jordan James run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0835% → 33%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
35.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+1
34.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
33.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
32.5%
Luke Loecher punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:1066% → 86%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
33.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
32.5%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
31.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
31.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
30.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 21 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
29.5%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+11
28.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 11 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.5%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3119% → 19%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
18.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
19.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 1 yd Tre'Shaun Harrison fumbled, recovered by Oregn Casey RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:2886% → 94%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
14.4%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
13.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+11
13.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
12.9%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
12.1%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
11.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
11.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
6.1%
Camden Lewis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:408% → 22%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
7.7%
Damien Martinez run for 43 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
8.8%
Jam Griffin run for 7 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+21
8.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 16 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
22.3%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3384% → 90%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
15.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 53 yds to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
13.8%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
13.5%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
13.2%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
13.2%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
10.1%
Camden Lewis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:1615% → 29%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
14.6%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+17
13.1%
Jam Griffin run for 17 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
28.7%
Isaiah Newell run for 15 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5074% → 77%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
25.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
25.6%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
22.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 5
OWN 13
-11
22.7%
Alex Bales run for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 2 Alex Bales fumbled, recovered by Oregn Alex BalesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0729% → 55%
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.3%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.3%
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2158% → 61%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
41.7%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+3
41.0%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
38.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+4
38.3%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
38.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 7 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-1
39.0%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0053% → 80%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
52.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 11 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
52.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 7 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
52.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.9%
Isaiah Newell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26DOWNS
17 plays · 72 yds · 5:0028% → 20%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
72.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+21
74.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 21 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
68.4%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+9
66.8%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
67.1%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+15
64.7%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference 15 yards to the OREGONST20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
64.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
66.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+12
69.3%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGONST pass interference 12 yards to the OREGONST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
65.0%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.3%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
70.6%
Jordan James run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:0990% → 96%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
90.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+5
89.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+2
91.0%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-1
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 13
OWN 11
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:11
Isaiah Newell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q4 12:13
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+26
TD · Q4 13:24
Isaiah Newell run for 15 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com