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UCLA

UCLA 35 at California 28

CAL
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:28 · Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by UCLA Laiatu Latu
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Pregame prior−0.8Home team on offense−35.3Score differential−9.1Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:58: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +15.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:18: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +14.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 59%).
  3. TD · Q3 7:06: Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +13.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:16: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +28.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:53: Zach Charbonnet 5 Yd Run (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Jake Bobo for Two-Point Conversion) — UCLA win probability +31.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:40UCLA 4th & 9 at CAL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:14CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:12CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:15UCLA 4th & 12 at CAL 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:33UCLA 4th & 6 at CAL 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:35UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:46CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−2.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:46UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:01UCLA 4th & 8 at CAL 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−14.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:09CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:01UCLA 4th & 2 at CAL 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:58UCLA 4th & 2 at CAL 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:28CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:04UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:16CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:37CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:58CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18UCLA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:06UCLA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:16CAL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−1.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:53UCLA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:2081% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
19.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
19.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
19.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+11
19.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
19.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for no gain to the Cal 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
19.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
19.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Hudson HabermehlSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
20.8%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2621% → 21%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
20.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
20.8%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
20.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:14
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
21.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1079% → 80%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
21.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
50
+17
21.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 17 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
21.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
21.1%
Colson Yankoff run for 6 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
21.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
21.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
21.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
20.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4721% → 21%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
21.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
21.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Justin Richard BakerSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
20.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
20.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:5779% → 78%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
20.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 13 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
20.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
20.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 12 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
20.5%
TJ Harden run for 11 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
20.4%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
20.4%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
20.4%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
20.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
20.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
21.6%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5922% → 29%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
21.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
21.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
22.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
22.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
50
+4
22.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+46
28.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 46 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:2774% → 73%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
26.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 10 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
25.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 7 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
25.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
25.7%
Colson Yankoff run for no gain to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+5
26.3%
Colson Yankoff run for 5 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
25.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Hudson Habermehl for 9 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
25.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
25.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
25.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+6
25.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 6 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
24.9%
TJ Harden run for 17 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
25.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
24.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
26.9%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:5028% → 40%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
27.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-5
27.7%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Coleman,Ben) 5 yards from CAL19 to CAL14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-9
27.7%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short right to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY CAL UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Vatikani,Sioape) 9 yards from CAL19 to CAL10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+9
27.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+7
27.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+2
26.9%
Jackson Sirmon run for 2 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
27.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
27.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 10 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
29.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 7 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+38
40.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 38 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5863% → 59%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
37.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-9
38.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 16
OWN 9
+5
39.4%
PENALTY CAL Offside (Rutchena,Nate) 5 yards from Bruins09 to Bruins14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+20
40.8%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 50 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 20 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:3742% → 59%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
42.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
42.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
43.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
58.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4045% → 62%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
53.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
53.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 32 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
50.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
37.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
43.1%
J. Plummer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4342% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
42.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
41.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
42.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 10 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
44.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+6
43.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
43.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1155% → 72%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
45.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+1
45.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+10
46.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to TJ Harden for 10 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
44.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
42.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
43.6%
Colson Yankoff run for 6 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+15
41.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 15 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
40.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Colson Yankoff for 11 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Josiah NorwoodSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
39.7%
TJ Harden run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+18
41.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 18 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
27.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:2034% → 35%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.1%
PENALTY CAL False Start (Driscoll,Brian) 5 yards from CAL25 to CAL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
33.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 10 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
34.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
33.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
37.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
38.4%
Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
38.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
37.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
35.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+5
33.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
33.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+4
34.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+7
35.6%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 52 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 7 yds to the Cal 43 Jeremiah Hunter fumbled, recovered by UCLA Laiatu LatuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:4571% → 76%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
29.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+21
31.4%
TJ Harden run for 21 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
28.0%
TJ Harden run for 7 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+9
28.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to TJ Harden for 9 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
28.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
30.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Hudson HabermehlSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
23.9%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:4030% → 62%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
29.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 9 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+12
31.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
31.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+49
33.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 49 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:1647% → 86%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
52.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 17 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
49.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 4
50
+3
47.9%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
48.0%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
48.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 7 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+10
47.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 10 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
45.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
45.7%
TJ Harden run for 4 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
45.7%
TJ Harden run for 9 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
14.4%
Zach Charbonnet 5 Yd Run (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Jake Bobo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4415% → 13%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 58 yds · 5:1188% → 97%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
12.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 17 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
11.8%
Colson Yankoff run for 9 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+13
11.1%
Colson Yankoff run for 13 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
10.9%
Colson Yankoff run for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
10.5%
Colson Yankoff run for 1 yd to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+7
11.5%
Colson Yankoff run for 7 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
8.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
6.7%
Colson Yankoff run for 6 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
6.1%
Colson Yankoff run for 1 yd to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
6.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 2
OPP 22
0
3.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:304% → 4%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
4.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 2 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
4.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
3.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Elijah MojarroSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+12
3.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds Jaydn Ott fumbled, recovered by UCLA Laiatu LatuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2897% → 97%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
3.0%
D. Thompson-Robinson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
3.1%
D. Thompson-Robinson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-1
3.0%
D. Thompson-Robinson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:53
Zach Charbonnet 5 Yd Run (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Jake Bobo for Two-Point Conversion)
-31.3
TD · Q4 11:16
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+28.5
TD · Q2 0:58
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 22 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com