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ASU

Arizona State 35 at Arizona 38

ARIZ
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:10 · Trenton Bourguet run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+1.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score differential+0.5Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:58: Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK) — ASU win probability +11.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:08: Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK) — ASU win probability +17.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:07: Michael Wiley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +14.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:00: Michael Wiley run for 72 yds for a TD ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 0, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +15.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:01: Xazavian Valladay 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick) — ASU win probability +17.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22ASU 4th & 21 at ARIZ 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:45ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17ARIZ 4th & 12 at ASU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−3.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22ASU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−1.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−6.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:25ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:10ASU 4th & 2 at ARIZ 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−2.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:07ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−3.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:33ARIZ 4th & 1 at ASU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−4.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−20.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:51ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:35ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:58ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:43ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:08ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:07ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:00ARIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:01ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3327% → 28%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+35
72.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 35 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
72.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 7 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
72.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-5
72.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 18
OPP 45
-3
72.8%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Jacob Manu for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 21
OPP 48
0
72.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:3172% → 74%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
72.2%
Michael Wiley run for 22 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
72.4%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-10
72.5%
COLEMAN, Jonah rush up the middle for a gain of 13 yards to the ASU36 (EDMONDS, Chris;MOORE, Joe). PENALTY ARI Holding on DONOVAN, Josh enforced 10 yards from the ASU49 to the ARI41 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
72.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+51
73.8%
Michael Wiley run for 51 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3INT
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:2327% → 27%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
73.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Giovanni Sanders) to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+8
73.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 8 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+7
73.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
73.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
73.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
73.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
73.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+13
73.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 13 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
72.9%
Tevin White run for 11 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass intercepted for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyon Barrs) to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3574% → 73%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
74.0%
Rayshon Luke run for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 21
-5
74.1%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Tautala Pesefea Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 16Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
73.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
73.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds , returns for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2875% → 75%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
75.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
75.1%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+17
74.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 17 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
75.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+6
75.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.4%
Jayden de Laura run for no gain to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
75.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
74.4%
LOOP, Tyler field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at ASU14], score nullified by penalty, clock 14:17. PENALTY Before the snap, ARI False Start on FEARS, Paiton enforced 5 yards from the ASU7 to the ASU12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
74.9%
Tyler Loop 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4225% → 32%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
75.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 21 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
74.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
50
+8
74.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Tevin White for 8 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
74.0%
Tevin White run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+10
74.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 10 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
73.5%
Tevin White run for 12 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
73.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 8 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+1
73.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the Ariz 10Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
73.8%
Trenton Bourguet run for 6 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds for a TD ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Christian Roland-Wallace) to the Ariz 0, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7INT
7 plays · 70 yds · 4:1370% → 73%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
70.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
50
+4
71.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
71.8%
Michael Wiley run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
72.2%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
72.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+22
71.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 22 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.9%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 5:2430% → 46%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
70.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 11 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
69.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 18 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
67.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
67.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
66.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 14 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+10
67.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 10 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
66.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-1
66.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+3
67.7%
Elijhah Badger run for 3 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+3
68.7%
Trenton Bourguet run for 3 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
66.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
67.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
68.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offsides (Treydan Stukes) to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
65.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 4Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 4 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5860% → 58%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.1%
Jayden de Laura run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-3
58.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 44 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
57.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1759% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
58.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 27 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
62.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
62.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
61.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
63.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 24 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:2931% → 53%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
68.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 15 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
66.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
67.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 14 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
66.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
66.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+7
67.3%
Trenton Bourguet run for 7 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
68.4%
Trenton Bourguet run for 3 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
65.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 14 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
65.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 14 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
65.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Charles Hall IV for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 9Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0154% → 75%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
54.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 42 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
61.2%
Michael Wiley run for 21 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
75.4%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:2931% → 36%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+34
70.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 34 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
65.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 14 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
63.8%
Tevin White run for 6 yds to the Ariz 21 Tevin White fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jaxen TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:3871% → 86%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
70.5%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+72
85.7%
Michael Wiley run for 72 yds for a TD ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 0, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5215% → 33%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
85.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
84.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
84.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
84.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 24 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
85.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 11 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
84.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 27 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.7%
Xazavian Valladay 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5376% → 74%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
76.0%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
75.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
74.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
74.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 43 yds, fair catch by D.J. Taylor at the ArzSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:0322% → 25%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
77.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
78.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 12 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
75.7%
BOURGUET, Trenton pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMPSON, Bryan thrown to the ARI40. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on STUKES, Treydan enforced 15 yards to the ARI39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
74.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+9
72.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 9 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
72.6%
Charles Hall IV run for 17 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.7%
Jalin Conyers 4 Yd pass from Trenton Bourguet (Carter Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1176% → 81%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
76.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 30 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
79.5%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the right incomplete intended for SINGER, Dorian thrown to the ASU27. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on TORRENCE, Ro enforced 15 yards to the ASU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
81.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
81.0%
COLEMAN, Jonah rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the ASU31 (COOPER, Anthonie). PENALTY ASU Face mask on COOPER, Anthonie enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the ASU28 to the ASU14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
81.0%
DJ Williams run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
81.4%
DJ Williams 6 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 44 yds · 5:3626% → 30%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
74.5%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalin Conyers) to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+4
74.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
75.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 6 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
75.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DAVIS II, Russell enforced (Russell Davis II) to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
69.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 11 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
67.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+4
67.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 4 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
67.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-26
69.9%
Trenton Bourguet sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ArzSt 31 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Elijhah Badger) to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4487% → 90%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
86.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
87.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
90.7%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-1
89.8%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:1715% → 8%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
84.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Hunter Echols) to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
82.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
84.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
86.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
92.3%
PENALTY ARI Unsportsmanlike Conduct ASU Unsportsmanlike Conduct , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1692% → 96%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
50
0
92.3%
Kneel down by DE LAURA, Jayden at ARI49 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
96.2%
Kneel down by DE LAURA, Jayden at ARI48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:08
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 9 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q3 0:01
Xazavian Valladay 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)
-17.7
TD · Q3 4:00
Michael Wiley run for 72 yds for a TD ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 0, (Tyler Loop KICK)
+15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com