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USC

USC 48 at UCLA 45

UCLA
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:58 · Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+5.3Garbage-time factor+1.4Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:50: Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 35 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +18.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:46: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +23.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 14:35: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 55 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +25.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:10: Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +16.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:38: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 3 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +28.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:08USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:22USC 4th & 7 at UCLA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:58UCLA 4th & 9 at USC 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:45USC 4th & 9 at UCLA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:43USC 4th & 9 at UCLA 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:13UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:32UCLA 4th & 14 at USC 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−2.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:27USC 4th & 22 at UCLA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−5.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−2.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:29UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:52USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:48UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:42USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:50USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:36USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:46UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:51USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:35UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:10USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:38UCLA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:4250% → 49%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
50.3%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the USC 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
50.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 14 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
50.3%
USC Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the USC 35Similar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+11
50.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 11 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
50.4%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+7
50.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 7 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
50.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 17 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
50.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
50.4%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
50.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 4 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-2
50.9%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2651% → 51%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
51.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
51.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
51.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
51.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+17
51.0%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 50 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 17 yds to the USC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:0849% → 49%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
50.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 37 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
50.4%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
50.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
50.8%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
51.3%
Denis Lynch 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:4753% → 59%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
53.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+13
53.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
52.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 11 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
53.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
54.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
54.2%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
54.4%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
54.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+16
54.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
55.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
55.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3542% → 43%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
58.0%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+13
58.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-24
57.3%
Caleb Williams pass intercepted Kain Medrano return for 24 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
65.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 30 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3837% → 42%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
63.2%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
64.3%
Caleb Williams run for 19 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
63.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 12 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 5 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
63.9%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
65.0%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
64.8%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
58.3%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:3861% → 62%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+24
61.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 24 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
62.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 5 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
63.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
63.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 49Similar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+4
62.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+2
63.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
63.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
62.3%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5736% → 39%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+16
64.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
64.4%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+48
64.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 48 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
61.0%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-4
61.7%
Caleb Williams sacked by Laiatu Latu and Jacob Sykes for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+4
64.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
61.2%
Denis Lynch 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4260% → 74%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
60.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 19 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+30
61.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 15 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
63.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:5527% → 42%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
73.0%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Josh FaloSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+49
73.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 49 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
70.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 8 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+5
70.6%
UCLA Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
70.8%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
57.7%
Austin Jones 8 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:2060% → 61%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-14
61.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Mekhi Blackmon return for 14 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13MISSED FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:2542% → 39%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
58.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+12
58.0%
Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
57.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
57.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
59.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
61.2%
Denis Lynch 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:2561% → 61%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
61.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
60.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
61.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
61.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Shane Lee return for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0641% → 49%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
59.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 15 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
50.8%
Denis Lynch 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:0959% → 62%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
58.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
60.8%
Keegan Jones run for 8 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+12
61.8%
Keegan Jones run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
62.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
62.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-2
61.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+7
59.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 7 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-6
63.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+2
61.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 14
OPP 28
0
59.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
62.4%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2538% → 60%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
61.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+13
59.0%
Austin Jones run for 13 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
59.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+35
40.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 35 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:0047% → 45%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
46.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-18
45.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Tyrone Taleni for a loss of 18 yards to the UCLA 9 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, forced by Tyrone Taleni, recovered by USC Latrell McCutchin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4861% → 73%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
38.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
40.2%
Caleb Williams run for 12 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.4%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:1428% → 53%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+38
27.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 38 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
30.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+12
29.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
30.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 19 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
31.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+8
31.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+6
29.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 6 Dorian Thompson-Robinson fumbled, recovered by UCLA Dorian Thompson-Robinson for a 1ST down Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
53.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3957% → 79%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
42.7%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
41.5%
Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
39.9%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 42Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+21
40.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 21 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
38.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 21 yds to the UCLA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
36.8%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
21.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
49.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 55 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2158% → 87%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.7%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
42.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 9 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
38.9%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
35.7%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
35.5%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+13
35.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 13 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
30.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+19
29.6%
Darwin Barlow run for 19 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2216% → 48%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
16.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 26 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
18.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
18.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kazmeir AllenSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+31
17.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 31 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
20.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+4
19.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
22.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 6Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
19.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 3 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25PUNT
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3370% → 78%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
29.9%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+16
30.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 16 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
29.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+29
28.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 29 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
22.4%
Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
20.8%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
18.9%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Josh FaloSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-12
18.9%
Caleb Williams sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
22.4%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:4931% → 32%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
31.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
30.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for no gain to the UCLA 11Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+27
27.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 27 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
34.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-1
31.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Korey Foreman return for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1890% → 94%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
10.3%
Caleb Williams run for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
9.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 16
OPP 43
-2
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 18
OPP 45
-2
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:38
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 3 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+28.6
TD · Q4 14:35
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 55 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+25.5
TD · Q3 3:46
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 6 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com