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STAN

Stanford 20 at California 27

CAL
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+1.4CAL 53.1%Dario Longhetto 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 6 · Q1 0:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:33 · Dario Longhetto 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.2Pregame prior+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:47: Joshua Karty 42 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +4.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:31: Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +16.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:18: Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CAL win probability +18.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 9:54: Jackson Sirmon 37 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Plummer Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +35.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Joshua Karty 61 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:00CAL 4th & 7 at STAN 36, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:47STAN 4th & 6 at CAL 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:33CAL 4th & 11 at STAN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52CAL 4th & 3 at STAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:43CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:40STAN 4th & 5 at CAL 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:40CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−2.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:58STAN 4th & 7 at CAL 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:29CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−2.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:00CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:53CAL 4th & 9 at STAN 47, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:09STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:02CAL 4th & 19 at STAN 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:05STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 17, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:26STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−2.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:15STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:20CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−5.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:54STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:08STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:31STAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:18CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:54CAL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:58CAL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5246% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
54.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 14 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+43
54.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 43 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
54.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+12
54.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 12 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.4%
Mitch Leigber run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:0854% → 54%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
54.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+24
53.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 24 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
54.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
54.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 3 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
54.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+54
54.3%
Dario Longhetto 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 6:1346% → 50%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
53.9%
Tanner McKee run for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
54.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 15 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
53.7%
Mitch Leigber run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
50
+9
53.7%
Mitch Leigber run for 9 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
53.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+6
53.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 6 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
53.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
53.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-5
53.8%
PENALTY STAN False Start (Rogers,Levi) 5 yards from Cal29 to Cal34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+10
54.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 10 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
50.0%
Joshua Karty 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:1451% → 53%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 8 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
51.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+27
50.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 27 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
52.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 21 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
52.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
52.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 1 yd to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
51.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to DeCarlos BrooksSimilar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+38
53.1%
Dario Longhetto 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5448% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
52.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
52.5%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-6
53.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Myles Jernigan for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+8
53.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 8 yds to the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1454% → 53%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
54.1%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short right to Anderson,Mavin PENALTY STAN Pass Interference (Williamson,Kendall) 15 yards from Cal45 to STAN40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
54.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+11
53.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 11 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
54.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
53.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5849% → 47%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
51.2%
Mitch Leigber run for no gain to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
51.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
51.1%
Tanner McKee sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+6
52.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 59 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:1152% → 52%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
51.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
51.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 16 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
52.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 9 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
53.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
52.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:0349% → 51%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
51.0%
Mitch Leigber run for 5 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+21
50.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 21 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
49.1%
Mitch Leigber run for 2 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
49.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for no gain to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+3
49.4%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
48.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10INT
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1950% → 54%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
49.9%
Shotgun Brooks,DeCarlos rush right for 6 yards gain to the Cal23 (Sinclair,Tristan; DiCosmo,Aeneas) PENALTY Cal Holding (Session,T.J.) 8 yards from Cal17 to Cal09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+44
49.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 44 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
53.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 19 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
54.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
53.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
52.8%
Jack Plummer run for no gain to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
51.7%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
54.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.5%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:2353% → 54%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
47.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 7 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+13
45.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 13 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
44.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun McKee,Tanner pass incomplete short left to Humphreys,John, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Cal Pass Interference (Earby,Jeremiah) 9 yards from STAN40 to STAN49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.4%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Benjamin YurosekSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
44.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
44.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
46.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2948% → 48%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
47.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
48.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+5
47.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
48.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:2951% → 53%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
48.9%
Mitch Leigber run for 8 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+13
47.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 13 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0049% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
48.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
47.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
46.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:2953% → 73%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
47.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 14 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
45.0%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+9
44.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 9 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
44.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 5 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+8
44.1%
Mitch Leigber run for 8 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
43.6%
Ashton Daniels run for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-5
43.3%
PENALTY STAN False Start (Rogers,Levi) 5 yards from Cal24 to Cal29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
43.3%
Ashton Daniels run for 5 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
44.5%
Ashton Daniels run for 4 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
43.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 11 yds to the Cal 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3133% → 29%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
32.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
32.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-5
32.2%
PENALTY Cal False Start (Driscoll,Brian) 5 yards from STAN42 to STAN47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
31.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
28.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jason Thompson at the Stanf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4471% → 73%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
29.3%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+9
29.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 9 yds to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
28.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
28.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 7 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+8
29.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Colby Bowman for 8 yds to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
28.4%
Mitch Leigber run for 2 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-5
28.4%
PENALTY STAN False Start (Hornibrook,Jake) 5 yards from STAN35 to STAN30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+4
28.9%
Mitch Leigber run for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
29.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+7
27.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 37 , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0726% → 23%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
26.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by Ricky Miezan for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+6
25.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+33
24.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 33 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
30.5%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 19
OPP 39
0
27.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 19
OPP 39
0
26.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
22.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jason Thompson at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5775% → 77%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
25.1%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+6
22.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 6 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
22.8%
Ashton Daniels run for no gain to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+22
23.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 52 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 22 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4725% → 45%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
24.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+10
25.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 10 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
26.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Elijah MojarroSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
26.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+8
25.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
26.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds to the Stanf 2 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Omari Porter) to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1970% → 28%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
30.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
29.5%
Mitch Leigber run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
64.7%
Jackson Sirmon 37 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Plummer Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
71.6%
PENALTY Cal UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Burrell,Nate) 15 yards from Cal35 to Cal20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2233% → 30%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:4072% → 77%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
71.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
73.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
73.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 19 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
75.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+21
74.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 21 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
76.9%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3132% → 29%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.6%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to John HumphreysSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
68.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 14 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.4%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Silas StarrSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
67.1%
Mitch Leigber run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
67.4%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
70.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:5574% → 79%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
73.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 15 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
74.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-10
77.6%
Shotgun Ott,Jaydn rush middle for 0 yards to the Cal38 (Herron,Stephen; Moi,Jaxson) PENALTY Cal Holding (Driscoll,Brian) 10 yards from Cal38 to Cal28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+2
78.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
80.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
79.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0424% → 20%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
75.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Mitch Leigber for 6 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+8
74.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 8 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.8%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Mitch LeigberSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
75.5%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
80.2%
Tanner McKee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1891% → 98%
Q4 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
91.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Stanf 1Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:543% → 9%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Tanner McKee pass incomplete to Mitch LeigberSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
97.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Shield Taylor for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
96.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Shield Taylor for 7 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+13
97.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 13 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+61
91.0%
Joshua Karty 61 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:54
Jackson Sirmon 37 Yd Fumble Return (Jack Plummer Pass to Jaydn Ott for Two-Point Conversion)
+35.2
TD · Q4 11:18
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+18.4
TD · Q3 8:31
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 9 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com