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ORST

Oregon State 31 at Arizona State 7

ASU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:58 · Carter Brown 29 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−21.6Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:53: Xazavian Valladay run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Feely KICK) — ASU win probability +12.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:00: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 21 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +9.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:53: Eddie Czaplicki kickoff for 57 yds , Silas Bolden return for 9 yds to the OrgSt 17 — ASU win probability +4.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:43: Damien Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +9.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:10: Ben Gulbranson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:06ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22ASU 4th & 6 at ORST 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:58ASU 4th & 6 at ORST 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:53ORST 4th & 11 at ASU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:30ASU 4th & 15 at ORST 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:53ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26ASU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:45ASU 4th & 9 at ORST 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.2%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:06ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:29ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:38ORST 4th & 7 at ASU 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:39ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:39ORST 4th & 3 at ASU 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:27ORST 4th & 5 at ASU 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:22ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:53ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:43ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:10ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5424% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
23.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
23.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
24.4%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 50 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:4476% → 76%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
24.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
24.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
24.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 18 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
24.3%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+15
24.3%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
24.3%
Shotgun Harrison,Tre'Shaun rush left for 7 yards gain to the ASU21 (Robertson,Merlin) PENALTY OSU Holding (Overman,Jake) 10 yards from ASU28 to ASU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+5
24.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+15
24.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 15 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
24.3%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.2%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3MISSED FG
17 plays · 65 yds · 7:2425% → 27%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
25.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
25.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 12 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
25.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Valladay,Xazavian rush right for 3 yards gain to the ASU49 (Fisher-Morris,Kyrei) PENALTY ASU Holding (Martinez,Chris) 10 yards from ASU46 to ASU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Andre JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+9
24.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+15
24.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cam Johnson for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
25.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+2
25.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+8
25.1%
Trenton Bourguet run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
25.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
25.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
25.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Andre JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+5
25.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+29
26.5%
Carter Brown 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0574% → 74%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
25.7%
Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
25.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+11
24.9%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
24.7%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
24.7%
Damien Martinez run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
24.7%
Ben Gulbranson run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
24.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Silas BoldenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
24.6%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
24.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Damien MartinezSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
26.1%
Everett Hayes 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:2327% → 26%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
26.8%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+2
27.0%
Trenton Bourguet run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+12
26.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 12 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
27.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
28.4%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
28.4%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
28.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Messiah SwinsonSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-7
27.9%
Trenton Bourguet sacked by Easton Mascarenas-Arnold for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:3774% → 73%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
25.7%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
25.1%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
24.3%
Jam Griffin run for no gain to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
24.6%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Merlin Robertson for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+5
26.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 37 yds , D.J. Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:0027% → 43%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
26.8%
Elijhah Badger run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
27.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
28.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+39
27.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for 39 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
29.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
42.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Feely KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5364% → 76%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
35.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 35 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
32.3%
Ben Gulbranson run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+12
31.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 12 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
22.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 21 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
24.3%
PENALTY ASU Personal Foul (Silvera,Nesta Jade) 15 yards from OSU35 to OSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:3427% → 26%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
26.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 21 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Bryan ThompsonSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
28.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
50
0
28.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 6
50
+5
26.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
23.0%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:1075% → 87%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
25.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 10 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
24.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 11 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
23.6%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
23.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
22.9%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
23.0%
Ben Gulbranson run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
22.9%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
23.2%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
22.7%
PENALTY OSU False Start (Levengood,Jake) 5 yards from ASU28 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+15
22.8%
Gulbranson,Ben pass incomplete short left to Bolden,Silas PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Woods,Ed) 15 yards from ASU33 to ASU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
22.7%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
12.8%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:5816% → 15%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
15.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
16.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
17.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+5
18.1%
Trenton Bourguet run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
17.9%
Trenton Bourguet run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-15
18.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bourguet,Trenton pass complete deep left to Sanders,Giovanni for 20 yards to the OSU15 (Cooper Jr.,Ryan), out of bounds PENALTY ASU Chop Block 15 yards from OSU35 to OSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 18
50
+5
16.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+4
16.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
15.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Andre JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:3588% → 98%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
11.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 15 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
11.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for no gain to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
11.4%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+8
11.5%
Ben Gulbranson run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
11.2%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
11.0%
Ben Gulbranson run for no gain to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-15
8.8%
Martinez,Damien rush left for 21 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:03 PENALTY OSU Personal Foul (Dunmore,John) 15 yards from ASU21 to ASU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 25
OPP 36
+12
9.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 12 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+14
9.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 14 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
8.6%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.8%
Ben Gulbranson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:044% → 3%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Jalin ConyersSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Cam Johnson for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
3.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 4 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
3.7%
Xazavian Valladay run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
3.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+1
3.6%
Trenton Bourguet run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+13
2.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 25 , Jesiah Irish returns for 13 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3798% → 99%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.6%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
1.7%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
1.4%
Luke Loecher punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
1.2%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
1.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
1.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
1.2%
Everett Hayes 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Andre JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
1.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
1.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incomplete to Elijhah BadgerSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+16
1.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 56 yds , Jesiah Irish returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18MISSED FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 8:1299% → 99%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
1.0%
Isaiah Newell run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
1.0%
Isaiah Newell run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+8
1.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Makiya Tongue for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
1.0%
Silas Bolden run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+4
1.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 4 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+21
1.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jeremiah Noga for 21 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
0.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+9
0.5%
Isaiah Newell run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Isaiah Newell run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.6%
Isaiah Newell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.7%
Kanoa Shannon run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
0.6%
Everett Hayes 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Xazavian Valladay run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Feely KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q3 9:43
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q2 1:00
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 21 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com