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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreSTAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Charlie Vincent run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:40: Tanner McKee run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK) — STAN win probability +2.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:49: Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 28 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST down — STAN win probability +2.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:44: Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +3.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:49: Cameron Rising pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 14 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +5.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:14: Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 19 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 15:00UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 30, tiedClose callWent for it · 93.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.3%average punt
- Q1 10:26UTAH 4th & 7 at STAN 40, tiedClose callPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.2%37% to convertField goal92.1%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call92.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:16STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 18, tiedClose callPunted · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:45UTAH 4th & 17 at UTAH 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it90.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.0%average punt
- Q1 3:40UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt88.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00UTAH 4th & 7 at STAN 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.3%37% to convertField goal86.2%−0.147% to makePunt85.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:07STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 28, tiedClose callPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it12.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:49UTAH 4th & 8 at STAN 32, tiedClose callWent for it · 85.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%−<0.134% to convertField goal85.3%51% to makePunt84.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 4:15STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.5%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q3 12:40STAN 4th & 10 at UTAH 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.5%−<0.130% to convertField goal12.3%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call12.5%average punt
- Q3 7:53STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.7%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q3 3:39STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 20, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.519% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 13:25STAN 4th & 15 at UTAH 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.117% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:25STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:08STAN 4th & 11 at UTAH 44, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.127% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:40STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.3%97% to makeGo for two11.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:49UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.2%97% to makeGo for two87.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:44UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:49UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.2%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:14UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:37UTAH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:32UTAH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 35 yds · 4:3493% → 92%
STANDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:108% → 9%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
91.5%
BERNARD, Micah rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the STA44 (BAILEY, David). PENALTY UTE Holding on MAEA, Johnny enforced 10 yards from the UTE48 to the UTE38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3191% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD8 plays · 67 yds · 3:059% → 13%
Q1 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+8
90.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 8 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
90.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Mohamoud Diabate and Cole Bishop for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+51
90.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 51 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:5188% → 89%
Q1 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
87.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 7 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
86.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the Stanf 37 Tavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by Utah Keaton Bills for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 3 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+12
85.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 9 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3613% → 13%
Q2 11:07
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
87.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devaughn Vele at the Utah 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2387% → 90%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
87.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 15 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+2
87.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 2 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+28
85.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 28 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:2211% → 11%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
89.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+8
89.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 8 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
89.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 53 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 5 yds to the Utah 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9INT11 plays · 62 yds · 3:3988% → 89%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
88.3%
RISING, Cameron pass to the left incomplete intended for VELE, Devaughn thrown to the UTE39. PENALTY STA Targeting on GILMAN, Alaka'i enforced 15 yards from the UTE34 to the UTE49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
89.1%
RISING, Cameron pass up the middle incomplete intended for DIXON, Jaylen thrown to the STA25. PENALTY UTE Holding on LAUMEA, Sataoa enforced 10 yards from the UTE49 to the UTE39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+11
88.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
89.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 9 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+13
89.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 13 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3612% → 12%
STANDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.6%
MCKEE, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for TREMAYNE, Brycen thrown to the UTE35. PENALTY UTE Pass Interference on PHILLIPS, Clark enforced 15 yards to the STA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
86.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to C.J. Hawkins for 20 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
86.0%
Ashton Daniels pass complete to Elijah Higgins for no gain to the Utah 40Similar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
87.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Devaughn Vele at the Utah 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD8 plays · 85 yds · 3:5187% → 94%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
88.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 11 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
88.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaxson Moi) to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
93.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 14 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:497% → 7%
Q3 7:53
4TH & 9
OWN 23
+7
93.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 40 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 7 yds to the Utah 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3994% → 98%
STANDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:282% → 2%
Q3 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-5
97.8%
Tanner McKee sacked by Mohamoud Diabate for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD4 plays · 72 yds · 2:0298% → 100%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
98.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 6 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+29
98.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 29 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Nate Johnson pass complete to Logan Kendall for 16 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 3:120% → 0%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 16 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
99.8%
Tanner McKee sacked by Simote Pepa and Lander Barton for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 7 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+23
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 23 yds to the Utah 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.8%
Tanner McKee sacked by Simote Pepa and Jonah Elliss for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 40Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Devaughn Vele at the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD8 plays · 88 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 5 yds to the Utah 42Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offsides (Jaxson Moi) to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
Cameron Rising sacked by Lance Keneley for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+16
99.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 16 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19DOWNS15 plays · 43 yds · 7:170% → 0%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 8 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 7 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
UTAH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (JaTravis Broughton) to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 46
-3
99.9%
Tanner McKee sacked by Keanu Tanuvasa for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:49
Cameron Rising pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 14 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q3 5:14
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 19 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 6:44
Tavion Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+3.1