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WASH

Washington 37 at Oregon 34

ORE
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.2ORE 73.1%Camden Lewis 43 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 5:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:14 · Camden Lewis 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior+22.7Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:21: Cameron Davis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +15.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:30: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 76 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +18.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:40: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 67 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +17.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:07: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 62 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +37.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:51: Peyton Henry 43 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +30.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36ORE 4th & 1 at WASH 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:14ORE 4th & 13 at WASH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57WASH 4th & 6 at ORE 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:03WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:46WASH 4th & 4 at ORE 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:28ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 33, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.5%−1.0
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 3:54ORE 4th & 3 at WASH 8, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−2.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−18.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:26ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.9%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:51WASH 4th & 2 at ORE 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−32.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:33ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 21, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:16ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:21WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:24ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30WASH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:40ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:07WASH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4023% → 26%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
76.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 13 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-10
76.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Davis) to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
76.6%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Jaxson Kirkland) to the Wash 43Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 15
OWN 43
+1
76.6%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the Wash 44Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+15
76.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 15 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
76.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 17 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
76.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
76.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for no gain to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
76.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
76.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
73.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:2274% → 73%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
74.2%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.5%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
74.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 4 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
74.4%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
74.4%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
74.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 20 yds to the Wash 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
74.7%
WHITTINGTON, Noah rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards to the UW5 (POWELL, Mishael). PENALTY ORE Personal Foul on POWERS-JOHNSON, Jackson enforced 15 yards from the UW22 to the UW37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+8
74.4%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+4
74.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
74.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+43
73.1%
Camden Lewis 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:1727% → 33%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
73.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 19 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
72.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 4
50
+13
72.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 13 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
72.4%
Cameron Davis run for 5 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+1
72.3%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+15
72.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 15 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
72.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
72.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+1
69.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
-5
70.4%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Peyton Henry) to the Oregn 12Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
67.2%
Peyton Henry 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4FUMBLE
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3868% → 65%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
68.2%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
69.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+14
68.6%
Noah Whittington run for 14 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
69.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+21
69.3%
Bucky Irving run for 21 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.2%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+10
70.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the Wash 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
70.2%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Wash 9Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
70.2%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Wash 4Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
67.1%
run for 3 yds to the Wash 1 fumbled, recovered by Wash Alphonzo TuputalaSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
65.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Wash 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0735% → 37%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
65.3%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Wash 1Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+9
65.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 9 yds to the Wash 10Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 10
0
62.1%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Wash 10Similar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
62.6%
Jack McCallister punt for 37 yds , Josh Delgado returns for no gain to the Wash 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 4:0064% → 73%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
63.5%
Bucky Irving run for 14 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
64.5%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
64.5%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Wash 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
64.5%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Wash 19Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
64.5%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Wash 17Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+7
63.4%
Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Wash 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.5%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the Wash 10Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
73.0%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:1636% → 39%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+34
64.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 34 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
63.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
62.9%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
63.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for no gain to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
60.9%
Peyton Henry 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 1:4664% → 66%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.5%
NIX, Bo pass to the left complete for 7 yards to FERGUSON, Terrance caught at the ORE30 and advanced to the ORE32 (BRIGHT, Cam). PENALTY ORE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on AUMAVAE-LAULU, Malaesala enforced 5 yards from the ORE25 to the ORE20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
63.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
61.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 9 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
62.5%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
63.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 8 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
65.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 4 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
65.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 17 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+54
66.3%
Camden Lewis 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4463% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.2%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
65.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
63.0%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
64.6%
Bo Nix run for 13 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
75.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 46 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5528% → 48%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 9 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
69.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
69.8%
Cameron Davis run for 7 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
69.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
68.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
68.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+12
68.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 12 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
67.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 16 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.8%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.2%
Cameron Davis run for 3 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:5259% → 78%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
59.0%
Bucky Irving run for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
62.0%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
62.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 8 yds to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
63.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 16 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
64.5%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
78.0%
Noah Whittington run for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5427% → 45%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
54.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 76 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 1:4557% → 74%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
56.6%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
57.0%
Bucky Irving run for 15 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
58.8%
NIX, Bo pass to the left complete for 17 yards to IRVING, Bucky caught at the ORE30 and advanced to the UW45 (BRUENER, Carson;COOK, Alex). PENALTY ORE Holding on AUMAVAE-LAULU, Malaesala enforced 10 yards from the ORE38 to the ORE28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
56.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+67
74.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 67 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14INT
12 plays · 98 yds · 4:0727% → 35%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
73.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Wash 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
72.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
72.0%
Cameron Davis run for 6 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-5
70.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Penix Jr.) to the Wash 29Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+10
72.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 10 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
70.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 19 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
68.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 21 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
66.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
65.7%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryan Addison) to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
21 plays · 91 yds · 10:3374% → 94%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
73.8%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+7
73.6%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
74.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
74.6%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
76.2%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
75.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
77.1%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 41 Bucky Irving fumbled, recovered by Oregn Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
75.8%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
77.2%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+11
77.8%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
77.8%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
78.7%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
77.4%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
78.7%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Wash 20Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
78.6%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Wash 16Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
77.3%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the Wash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
78.6%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Wash 10Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
89.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
88.6%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
93.8%
Camden Lewis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4712% → 49%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
88.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 3 yds to the Wash 38Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+62
51.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 62 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4161% → 58%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.7%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
61.4%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
59.7%
Christian Gonzalez run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
58.0%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3558% → 89%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
42.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 9 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
41.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-1
41.3%
Cameron Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+43
10.7%
Peyton Henry 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19END OF GAME
11 plays · 37 yds · 0:5123% → 21%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
20.4%
Ty Thompson sacked by Bralen Trice and Jeremiah Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+19
19.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 19 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
20.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
50
+12
19.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 12 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
21.5%
NIX, Bo pass to the left complete for 15 yards to FRANKLIN, Troy caught at the UW23 and advanced to the UW23 (COOK, Alex). PENALTY ORE Illegal Touch-Pass on FRANKLIN, Troy enforced 0 yards from the UW38 to the UW38, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
21.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:07
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 62 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
-37.3
FG · Q4 0:51
Peyton Henry 43 yd FG GOOD
-30.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com