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CAL

California 10 at Oregon State 38

ORST
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:23 · Jamieson Sheahan punt for 53 yds, downed at the OrgSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+16.7Home team on offense+11.8Score differential+4.0Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:14: Jam Griffin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +3.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 12:01: Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:33: Jeremiah Earby 33 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) — CAL win probability +6.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:12: Everett Hayes 49 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +4.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:03: Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:35CAL 4th & 24 at CAL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:28ORST 4th & 2 at CAL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:06CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    81.3%−1.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59ORST 4th & 10 at CAL 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:01CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:30CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54ORST 4th & 8 at CAL 35, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:24CAL 4th & 3 at ORST 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:33ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:23CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:12ORST 4th & 6 at CAL 31, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:21CAL 4th & 15 at ORST 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:30CAL 4th & 18 at ORST 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:49CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:37ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:33CAL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:03ORST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:00ORST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 4:2519% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
81.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
81.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
81.1%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
81.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for no gain fumbled, forced by Andrew Chatfield Jr., recovered by CalSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+2
81.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-11
81.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Alex Austin for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:5880% → 81%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
80.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
80.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
80.2%
Ben Gulbranson run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
80.3%
Jam Griffin run for no gain to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
79.6%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+37
79.3%
Jack Colletto pass complete to Anthony Gould for 37 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
79.8%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
79.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Damien Martinez for 6 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.7%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:1882% → 85%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
81.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
81.7%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+6
81.5%
run for 6 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
81.7%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
81.7%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.2%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0316% → 16%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
83.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-5
83.9%
Mavin Anderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+2
84.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+15
84.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 15 yds to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0186% → 86%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jake Overman for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
85.8%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
85.6%
run for no gain to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
85.2%
Ben Gulbranson run for 1 yd to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.8%
Jam Griffin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
85.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
85.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
85.6%
Luke Loecher punt for 34 yds, downed at the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5815% → 9%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
85.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
85.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
85.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+55
91.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:319% → 9%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
90.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
90.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 52 yds, downed at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:3692% → 93%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
91.6%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+14
91.6%
Damien Martinez run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
91.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Saunders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+8
91.9%
Jam Griffin run for 8 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
92.0%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
91.9%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
91.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
93.0%
Everett Hayes 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:308% → 7%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
91.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 40 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
91.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 6 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
91.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-2
91.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
92.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:5194% → 88%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
94.1%
Damien Martinez run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
94.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
94.2%
Damien Martinez run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+33
88.0%
Jeremiah Earby 33 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5488% → 88%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
87.7%
Damien Martinez run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+5
88.3%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
88.1%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 3
OWN 16
0
87.5%
Luke Loecher punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:1013% → 12%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
87.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+2
87.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 2 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-1
88.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
88.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 53 yds, downed at the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.8%
Kneel down by GULBRANSON, Ben at OSU15 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:4188% → 93%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
88.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+6
88.3%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+18
87.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 18 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
88.9%
Damien Martinez run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+12
88.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Anthony Gould for 12 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
88.9%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
88.8%
Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
88.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
92.6%
Everett Hayes 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:519% → 8%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
90.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 11 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
90.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 24 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
90.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
90.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Ender Aguilar) to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
91.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+48
92.2%
Dario Longhetto 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 4:1894% → 98%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+34
93.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 34 yds Tre'Shaun Harrison fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Tyjon Lindsey for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
94.2%
Silas Bolden run for 7 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
94.2%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+6
94.0%
Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
94.2%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+6
94.2%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
98.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:332% → 1%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
97.6%
Jack Plummer run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
97.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+9
97.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 9 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
97.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
98.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+12
98.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 12 yds Jeremiah Hunter fumbled, recovered by Cal for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+3
98.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 29
+11
98.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 11 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
+36
98.7%
Michael Luckhurst 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:2099% → 100%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.7%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
98.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 13 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
98.8%
Jesiah Irish run for 7 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
98.8%
Kanoa Shannon run for 5 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to John Dunmore for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
98.8%
Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+15
98.7%
Damien Martinez run for 15 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
98.8%
Isaiah Newell run for 13 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
98.8%
Isaiah Newell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jack Velling for 2 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 5 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Damien Moore for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 52 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 28 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
Isaiah Newell run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Kanoa Shannon run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to John Dunmore for 10 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Isaiah Newell run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to John Dunmore for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Kneel down by GEBBIA, Tristan at CAL42 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
100.0%
Kneel down by GEBBIA, Tristan at CAL44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:33
Jeremiah Earby 33 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick)
-6.1
PUNT · Q2 12:01
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)
+6
FG · Q3 10:12
Everett Hayes 49 yd FG GOOD
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com