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COLO

Colorado 17 at USC 55

USC
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2022 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.9USC 98.7%Caleb Williams pass complete to TahjWashington for 61 yds for a TDAWAY 10 - HOME 34 · Q3 4:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:50 · Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 61 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior+23.3Home team on offense+27.3Score differential+17.7Garbage-time factor+10.5Blowout margin−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:09: Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK) — USC win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:55: Caleb Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK) — USC win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:58: Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK) — USC win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:49: Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +4.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:50: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 61 yds for a TD — USC win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:29COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:46USC 4th & 8 at USC 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:59COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33USC 4th & 15 at USC 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:33COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:24COLO 4th & 2 at USC 10, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 34, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:32USC 4th & 8 at COLO 38, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:28COLO 4th & 2 at USC 6, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:18COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:09USC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:55USC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:58USC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:49COLO Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:50USC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:27USC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:34USC Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:22COLO Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:36USC Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:313% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
96.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 15 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
96.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
96.7%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 5 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3097% → 96%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
96.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
96.4%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds , Chase Penry returns for no gain to the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:344% → 4%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
96.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+7
96.3%
J.T. Shrout run for 7 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
96.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
96.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-7
96.0%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+1
95.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 39 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1696% → 96%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
95.9%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
95.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.7%
COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nikko Reed) to the Colo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5SF
1 play · -12 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-12
95.7%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Tyrone Taleni and Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 12 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3796% → 95%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.7%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
95.8%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-9
95.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by Quinn Perry for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds, downed at the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:585% → 6%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
95.3%
Anthony Hankerson run for 4 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
95.1%
Anthony Hankerson run for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
95.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+5
95.1%
(03:42) CARRIZOSA, Trent punt 36 yards to the USC28, JACKSON III, Michael return 5 yards to the USC33 (LYLE, Anthony), out of bounds, clock 03:33. PENALTY USC Offsides on MCCUTCHIN, Latrell enforced 5 yards from the COL36 to the COL41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+4
94.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 4 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
94.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 37 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
94.4%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
94.1%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+1
94.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the USC 10Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
93.7%
Cole Becker 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:0794% → 95%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
94.0%
(01:16) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the left complete for 13 yards to RICE, Brenden caught at the USC39 and advanced to the USC41 (CHANDLER-SEMEDO, Josh), clock 01:02. PENALTY USC Holding on MONHEIM, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the USC28 to the USC18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+1
93.8%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the USC 19Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 19
OWN 19
0
93.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+24
93.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 24 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.8%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the USC 43Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-13
93.4%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 13 yards to the USC 30 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 23
OWN 30
+42
92.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 42 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.6%
(12:51) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the left complete for 8 yards to BYNUM, Terrell caught at the COL27 and advanced to the COL20 (MACK, Jeremy), clock 12:47. PENALTY USC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MONHEIM, Jonah declined USC Pass Interference on FORD, Kyle enforced 15 yards to the COL43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+5
92.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 5 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+18
92.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 18 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+7
92.8%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
93.1%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 12Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
92.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+10
92.6%
(10:18) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass up the middle incomplete intended for BYNUM, Terrell thrown to the COL0, clock 10:13. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on STRIKER, Jaylen enforced 10 yards to the COL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:126% → 6%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
94.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 6 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-6
93.8%
Alex Fontenot run for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
94.0%
J.T. Shrout sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:4994% → 96%
Q2 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Colo 4Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.2%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:055% → 4%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.5%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jack Hestera for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-15
95.3%
(07:12) SHROUT, J.T. pass to the right incomplete intended for LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana broken up by BLACKMON, Mekhi at the COL42, clock 07:07. PENALTY COL Chop Block enforced 15 yards from the COL40 to the COL25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+2
95.6%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+7
95.6%
Anthony Hankerson run for 7 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+1
95.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 34 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 1 yd to the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:3796% → 98%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.9%
Caleb Williams run for 7 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
95.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
96.0%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
96.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
96.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+32
98.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
97.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 8 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+8
97.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 7 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
97.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
97.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+4
98.0%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 36 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:4598% → 99%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
98.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
98.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 29 yds to the Colo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
98.4%
(00:14) WILLIAMS, Caleb sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the COL30 (MONTGOMERY, Jamar), clock 00:09. PENALTY COL Offsides on MONTGOMERY, Jamar enforced 5 yards from the COL22 to the COL17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
98.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+34
98.5%
Denis Lynch 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2198% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
98.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+5
98.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.1%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
98.2%
Caleb Williams run for 17 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
98.3%
Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.4%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-3
98.4%
Caleb Williams sacked by Josh Chandler-Semedo and Chance Main for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 38Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
98.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-9
98.2%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jamar Montgomery for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:372% → 6%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.1%
J.T. Shrout run for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
98.1%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
98.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 5 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
98.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 27 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
98.2%
Alex Fontenot run for 7 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+1
98.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the USC 6Similar
Q3 6:28
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
98.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.8%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:4997% → 99%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
96.8%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+61
98.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 61 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.7%
J.T. Shrout pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:0799% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
98.7%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+10
98.9%
Austin Jones run for 10 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 11 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.0%
Raleek Brown run for 22 yds to the Colo 20 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Jackson III) to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 8
OPP 40
+8
99.0%
Raleek Brown run for 8 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
99.0%
(02:07) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right intercepted by TAYLOR, Tyrin at the COL2 intended for BYNUM, Terrell. Taylor return for 3 yards to the COL5, out of bounds, clock 01:59. PENALTY COL Offsides on THOMAS, Guy enforced 5 yards from the COL32 to the COL27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+7
99.0%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
99.1%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 12 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Jack Hestera run for 2 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Anthony Hankerson run for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 13 yds to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Raleek Brown for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.9%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+15
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 15 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Raleek Brown for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jack Hestera for 26 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
J.T. Shrout run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
J.T. Shrout run for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 2 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 16 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
99.9%
J.T. Shrout run for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+9
99.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Brady Russell for 9 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
J.T. Shrout run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:43100% → 100%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Raleek Brown run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to CJ Williams for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Offsides (Mister Williams) to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
99.9%
Raleek Brown run for 19 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the Colo 38Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to CJ Williams for 3 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
99.9%
Miller Moss run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 39 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by USC Darwin BarlowSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+20
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 20 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 10 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
99.9%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyle Ford) to the Colo 24Similar
Q4 2:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
+10
99.9%
Darwin Barlow run for 10 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
99.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 11 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
100.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Chase Penry for 14 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
100.0%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Brady Russell for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:49
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
-4.6
TD · Q2 1:58
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 10:09
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Stadthaus KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com