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CAL

California 35 at USC 41

USC
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-21.1USC 73.7%Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD,(Jack Plummer pass to Monroe Young forTwo-Point Conversion)AWAY 35 - HOME 41 · Q4 2:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:31 · Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Plummer pass to Monroe Young for Two-Point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+2.2Home team on offense+6.6Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:53: Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:27: Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +7.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:56: Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 47 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +6.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:00: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED) — CAL win probability +12.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:31: Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Plummer pass to Monroe Young for Two-Point Conversion) — CAL win probability +21.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:24USC 4th & 6 at USC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:05CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 49, up 1
    Close callPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28USC 4th & 9 at USC 48, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:20CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 29, up 1
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:12USC 4th & 5 at CAL 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:36CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:03USC 4th & 11 at USC 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:22CAL 4th & 2 at USC 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:28USC 4th & 10 at USC 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:30CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 13
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:06USC 4th & 10 at USC 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:28CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:18CAL 4th & 2 at USC 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:29CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:58USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:44USC Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:53USC Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:00USC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:27CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:18USC Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:56CAL Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:00CAL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    12.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:34USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:31CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3690% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
90.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
90.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.0%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
89.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+8
89.7%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 43 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 8 yds to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:4610% → 12%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
89.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 22 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
89.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+30
89.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 30 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
89.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
88.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 10 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:2388% → 88%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
88.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 12 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+12
88.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Josh Falo for 12 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
88.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
87.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 1 yd to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+17
87.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
87.4%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.2%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5413% → 14%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
87.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 22 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
87.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
86.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+7
86.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 7 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
86.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 8Similar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
86.4%
USC Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:1986% → 85%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+11
86.2%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+15
86.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 15 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
86.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
86.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
86.4%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
85.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+13
85.4%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 45 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 13 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
85.2%
(01:17) PLUMMER, Jack pass to the left complete for 27 yards to STURDIVANT, J.Michael caught at the CAL36 and advanced to the CAL47 (BULLOCK, Calen), out of bounds, clock 01:08. PENALTY CAL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on AGUILAR, Ender enforced 5 yards from the CAL20 to the CAL15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
85.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2915% → 15%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
85.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+7
84.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
84.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 7 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+11
84.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 11 yds to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:2685% → 88%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
85.2%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+16
85.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
85.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
84.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+20
84.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 20 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offsides (Oluwafemi Oladejo) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
88.0%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5914% → 14%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
86.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-8
86.3%
Jack Plummer sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 19
OWN 25
+4
86.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 41 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for no gain to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2687% → 86%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
86.9%
Raleek Brown run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-8
87.3%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10DOWNS
16 plays · 47 yds · 5:3414% → 15%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
85.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
85.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+12
86.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 12 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
84.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-2
84.0%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
84.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
83.7%
(05:22) PLUMMER, Jack pass to the right incomplete thrown to the USC45; QB hurried by TA'UFO'OU, Stanley, clock 05:17. PENALTY CAL Holding on VATIKANI, Sioape enforced 10 yards from the USC45 to the CAL45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+7
85.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 7 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+17
84.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 17 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
82.7%
Jack Plummer sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 33Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+10
85.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 10 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
85.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:4987% → 85%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
86.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+8
86.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
86.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
85.4%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Jack Plummer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:1887% → 93%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
50
+4
87.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+39
87.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 39 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:349% → 10%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
90.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
90.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3010% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
90.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
90.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
90.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 41 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2192% → 97%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
91.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
91.9%
(12:48) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete intended for BYNUM, Terrell thrown to the CAL40, clock 12:42. PENALTY Before the snap, USC Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the USC34 to the USC29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
91.7%
Caleb Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 30Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+11
91.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+59
97.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 59 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:264% → 11%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
96.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+15
96.9%
(10:23) PLUMMER, Jack pass up the middle incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the CAL37, clock 10:18. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on BLACKMON, Mekhi enforced 15 yards to the CAL39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.6%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+58
96.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 58 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
96.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by Tyrone Taleni for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
96.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
97.0%
(07:36) PLUMMER, Jack pass up the middle incomplete intended for STURDIVANT, J.Michael thrown to the USC0, clock 07:31. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on BULLOCK, Calen enforced 5 yards to the USC2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1492% → 91%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
91.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2810% → 9%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
90.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-5
90.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Jermaine Terry II) to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+7
91.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
91.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 4:0393% → 98%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
92.6%
Caleb Williams run for 13 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
92.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 12 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
93.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 13 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
93.5%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+27
93.5%
Travis Dye run for 27 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.7%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
93.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 7 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:172% → 8%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
98.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Damien Moore for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+7
98.3%
Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
98.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 9 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
98.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.4%
(14:30) PLUMMER, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for ANDERSON, Mavin thrown to the CAL44, clock 14:25. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on BULLOCK, Calen enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the CAL41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
98.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
98.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 1
50
+3
98.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
92.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 47 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:528% → 20%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
92.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+24
92.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 24 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
91.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 5 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+9
92.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 9 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
91.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OPP 9
-2
92.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 11Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+8
92.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 3:2089% → 97%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
89.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 29 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
90.8%
Michael Jackson III run for 19 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
91.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+6
92.0%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
92.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 16 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 2:545% → 26%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
95.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+21
95.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 21 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+13
95.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 13 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
95.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 18 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
95.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 8 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+16
95.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 16 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Plummer pass to Monroe Young for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:5794% → 97%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
94.1%
Caleb Williams run for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
94.3%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+15
94.4%
Caleb Williams run for 15 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
95.7%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
96.3%
(01:20) [NH] Kneel down by USC at CAL21 (team loss of 2), clock 01:06.Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
96.8%
(00:34) [NH] Kneel down by USC at CAL23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:31
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Plummer pass to Monroe Young for Two-Point Conversion)
-21.1
TD · Q4 9:00
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED)
-12.5
TD · Q3 7:27
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com