2022 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2022 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:24 · Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 6 yds to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:20: Jaylon Glover run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +9.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:24: Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 5 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +14.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Cameron Ward pass complete to Tsion Nunnally for 39 yds to the Utah 9 for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:17: Cameron Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +18.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:00: Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 3 yds to the Utah 34 — WSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 8:07UTAH 4th & 8 at WSU 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snapGo for it63.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call64.0%77% to makePunt63.0%−1.0average punt
- Q1 6:22WSU 4th & 16 at WSU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.5%average punt
- Q1 4:57UTAH 4th & 7 at WSU 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.7%−<0.137% to convertField goal62.4%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call62.7%average punt
- Q1 2:01WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.6%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q1 0:25UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.8%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.2%average punt
- Q2 4:43WSU 4th & 11 at UTAH 34, tiedClose callWent for it · 43.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.2%−0.427% to convertField goal43.6%47% to makePunt42.7%−0.8average punt
- Q2 2:54UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it54.6%−2.013% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.6%average punt
- Q2 1:24UTAH 4th & 3 at WSU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%51% to convertField goal59.4%−0.479% to makePunt53.9%−5.8average punt
- Q3 11:45WSU 4th & 3 at UTAH 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.4%52% to convertField goal32.2%−1.266% to makePunt23.4%−10.0average punt
- Q3 7:08UTAH 4th & 1 at WSU 24, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.7%71% to convertField goal70.4%−2.368% to makePunt63.6%−9.1average punt
- Q3 5:32WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snapGo for it25.4%−4.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q4 12:17UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it78.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%−2.0average punt
- Q4 9:28WSU 4th & 15 at WSU 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it18.6%−3.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q4 4:48WSU 4th & 14 at UTAH 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snapGo for it16.3%−3.218% to convertField goalTheir call19.5%66% to makePunt10.9%−8.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:24WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.4%97% to makeGo for two45.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:23UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.7%97% to makeGo for two56.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:20UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:24UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.3%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:17WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.5%97% to makeGo for two22.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1MISSED FG14 plays · 56 yds · 6:5277% → 74%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
24.1%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Logan Kendall for 5 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+12
24.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Solomon Enis for 12 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4027% → 27%
UTAHDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2473% → 72%
Q1 4:57
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4728% → 30%
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+21
28.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 21 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
29.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-6
30.2%
Cameron Ward sacked by Van Fillinger and Mohamoud Diabate for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 43Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+3
29.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 43 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 3 yds to the Utah 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2871% → 69%
Q1 0:25
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
31.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0032% → 39%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
31.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Orion Peters for 15 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
32.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for no gain to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
33.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
39.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 29 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7TD10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0063% → 70%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
36.7%
(13:23) BARNES, Bryson pass to the right complete for 14 yards to KINCAID, Dalton caught at the UTA36 and advanced to the UTA49 (LEE, Jordan), clock 13:16. PENALTY UTA Holding on KINCAID, Dalton enforced 10 yards from the UTA35 to the UTA25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+15
37.6%
(13:03) BARNES, Bryson pass to the right incomplete intended for KINCAID, Dalton thrown to the WSU40, clock 12:58. PENALTY WSU Pass Interference on LEE, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the UTA40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+31
36.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 31 yds to the WshSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8DOWNS10 plays · 33 yds · 4:3334% → 36%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
34.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 22Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
36.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 13 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
37.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Dylan Paine for 2 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+16
38.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 16 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.0%
(06:29) WARD, Cameron pass to the right complete for 29 yards to STRIBLING, De'Zhaun caught at the UTA13 and advanced to the UTA4 (HUBERT, R.J.), out of bounds, clock 06:25. PENALTY WSU Illegal Touch-Pass on STRIBLING, De'Zhaun enforced 0 yards from the UTA33 to the UTA33, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+5
36.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 5 yds to the Utah 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4368% → 64%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
31.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 3 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-16
32.0%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 46 UTAH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Utah 31Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 23
OWN 31
+5
35.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 5 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
36.3%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 39 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for no gain to the WshSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD9 plays · 25 yds · 2:2569% → 79%
Q2 1:24
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+6
32.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylon Glover for 6 yds to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0426% → 26%
WSUDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 52 yds · 3:1426% → 28%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 12 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
27.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 9 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+22
29.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Dylan Paine for 22 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+2
28.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 2 yds to the Utah 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 53 yds · 4:3675% → 77%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
25.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 5 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
22.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 14 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
22.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 9 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
22.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 3 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3227% → 25%
UTAHDrive 15TD9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5978% → 92%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
22.4%
(05:23) GLOVER, Jaylon rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UTA42 (HICKS, Jaden), clock 05:19. PENALTY UTA Holding on ENIS, Solomon enforced 10 yards from the UTA40 to the UTA30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+15
24.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 15 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
20.5%
Bryson Barnes sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 32Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+27
22.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 27 yds to the WshSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.0%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 5 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16TD6 plays · 72 yds · 15:4320% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
19.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Tsion Nunnally for 39 yds to the Utah 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
12.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 10 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
13.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 9 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
14.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Dylan Paine for 5 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
15.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Tsion Nunnally for 2 yds to the Utah 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5978% → 78%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
21.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the Utah 34 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Utah 17Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+12
22.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Money Parks for 12 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
21.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Thomas Yassmin for 5 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
22.3%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4627% → 23%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+15
25.9%
WARD, Cameron pass to the right complete for -4 yards to PAINE, Dylan caught at the WSU23 and advanced to the WSU24 (HUBERT, R.J.), clock 11:55. PENALTY UTA Targeting on HUBERT, R.J. enforced 15 yards from the WSU28 to the WSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
28.7%
(11:41) PAINE, Dylan rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU41 (REID, Gabe), clock 11:37. PENALTY WSU Holding on FA'AMOE, Fa'alili enforced 10 yards from the WSU43 to the WSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-1
25.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 32Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+2
25.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 2 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1681% → 83%
Q4 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
16.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 37 Ja'Quinden Jackson fumbled, recovered by WshSt Tanner MokuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20FG8 plays · 12 yds · 3:1229% → 30%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
28.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 3 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
31.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 1 yd to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
29.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 3 yds to the Utah 18Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-2
29.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21END OF GAME15 plays · 28 yds · 4:3980% → 96%
Q4 2:59
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+10
13.3%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 10 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+10
6.1%
(00:54) BARNES, Bryson pass to the right intercepted by SMITH-WADE, Chau at the WSU16 intended for ENIS, Solomon. Smith-Wade return for 0 yards to the WSU16 (ENIS, Solomon), clock 00:46. PENALTY WSU Holding on SMITH-WADE, Chau enforced 10 yards from the WSU30 to the WSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
4.5%
(00:27) UTA rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU22, End of Play, clock 00:21. PENALTY Before the snap, UTA Illegal Snap on MAILE, Paul enforced 5 yards from the WSU20 to the WSU25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:17
Cameron Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q3 1:24
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 5 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
-14.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:00
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 3 yds to the Utah 34
+12.2