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Oregon 42 at California 24

CAL
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:45 · Andrew Boyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior−32.5Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:08: Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 6 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +3.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:14: Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:54: Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 12 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +6.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:45: Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +8.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:38: Kai Millner pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:19ORE 4th & 5 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:10ORE 4th & 4 at CAL 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    81.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01CAL 4th & 4 at ORE 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:04CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:35CAL 4th & 18 at CAL 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−2.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:10CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:23CAL 4th & 2 at ORE 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40CAL 4th & 14 at ORE 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:06ORE 4th & 1 at CAL 5, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−1.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:17CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31CAL 4th & 6 at ORE 41, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:30ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 14:56ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:08CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:14ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:54ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:45ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:19ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:38CAL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:16ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:21CAL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0114% → 14%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
13.5%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+7
13.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 7 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
13.9%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Bryan Addison return for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1186% → 85%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.0%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
14.2%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-1
14.4%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 5
50
0
14.6%
Andrew Boyle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5315% → 15%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
14.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
14.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 5 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
15.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
15.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:5085% → 84%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
15.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+20
15.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 20 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
15.4%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+17
15.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 17 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
15.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 5 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
15.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
15.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+6
16.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 4
OPP 14
0
16.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4717% → 20%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+35
16.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 35 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
17.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+9
17.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
18.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 11 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
18.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 14 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
19.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
19.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
19.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+28
19.9%
Dario Longhetto 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:0580% → 79%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.0%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
19.8%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
20.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Dont'e ThorntonSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
20.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Jackson Powers-Johnson) to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
20.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
21.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
21.3%
Andrew Boyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:2621% → 20%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
20.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
20.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-11
20.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 21 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jack Plummer) to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 17
OWN 21
+21
20.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 21 yds to the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:5780% → 81%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
20.1%
Sean Dollars run for 7 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
20.3%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
20.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 26 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
20.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 3 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
20.8%
Jordan James run for 3 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2220% → 25%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
19.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 57 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
21.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+9
21.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
22.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
25.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 6 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10INT
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0376% → 76%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
24.1%
Bo Nix run for 18 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
23.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+29
23.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 29 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
23.0%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+16
23.3%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
23.6%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.9%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Orin Patu return for no gain to the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5526% → 27%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
26.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 6 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+9
26.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
26.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to DeCarlos BrooksSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
26.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for 1 yd to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 9
OWN 20
-9
27.4%
Jack Plummer sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 18
OWN 11
0
27.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0972% → 79%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
27.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
27.0%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
27.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 22 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
26.6%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
27.0%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
28.4%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
27.9%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.1%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:1124% → 27%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
24.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
23.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
26.1%
Ott, Jaydn rush for 5 yards to the CALIFORNIA49, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 5 yards to the CALIFORNIA49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 5
OWN 49
0
26.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
26.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 4
50
-7
27.0%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Trikweze Bridges return for 7 yds to the Cal 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:2678% → 85%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
21.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 25 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
21.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 11 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
15.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 12 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 1:2217% → 16%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
16.7%
Ott, Jaydn rush for 6 yards to the CALIFORNIA32, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-2
16.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 14Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+5
16.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
15.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16INT
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0385% → 86%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
14.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 17 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-26
14.1%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Femi Oladejo return for 26 yds to the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5783% → 93%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.6%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
16.6%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+26
16.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 26 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
15.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 12 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
7.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18MISSED FG
17 plays · 54 yds · 4:459% → 9%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
9.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
9.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 15 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
9.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 16 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
10.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
10.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
10.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+7
10.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 7 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
10.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
10.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+10
10.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 10 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
10.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
10.3%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-10
9.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Driscoll) to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+6
9.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Tommy Christakos for 6 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+39
9.0%
Dario Longhetto 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Christian GonzalezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:3493% → 95%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.1%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
7.1%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+24
6.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 24 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
6.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 12 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
5.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Dont'e Thornton for 7 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+4
5.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 4 yds to the Cal 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
5.6%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-2
5.2%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 9Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
4.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 4 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
4.8%
Jordan James run for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:388% → 6%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
7.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 13 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
7.9%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
7.3%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 23 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by Cal Jack PlummerSimilar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 20
OWN 23
-1
6.7%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 21
OWN 22
+4
6.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 4 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 17
OWN 26
+2
6.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 32 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:4196% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
3.9%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+18
3.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
3.5%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+22
3.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 22 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
3.4%
Whittington, Noah rush for loss of 2 yards to the CALIFORNIA14, PENALTY CALIFORNIA face mask 6 yards to the CALIFORNIA6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
3.3%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.6%
Bo Nix 1 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:221% → 5%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
0.5%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
0.6%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.5%
Kai Millner pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
0.5%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
0.5%
Kai Millner run for 13 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.5%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
0.5%
Kai Millner pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 2 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+2
0.5%
Kai Millner pass complete to Keleki Latu for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+18
0.4%
Kai Millner pass complete to Keleki Latu for 18 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.5%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
0.4%
Damien Moore run for 12 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
4.6%
Kai Millner pass complete to Monroe Young for 11 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0497% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.7%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
2.4%
Bo Nix run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
2.5%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
2.2%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
1.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+12
1.7%
Bo Nix run for 12 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
1.6%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+40
0.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 40 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:340% → 2%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Kai Millner pass complete to Monroe Young for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
0.2%
Kai Millner pass complete to Tommy Christakos for 14 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
2.1%
Kai Millner pass complete to Justin Richard Baker for 55 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.2%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
1.2%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
1.2%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:45
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 4:14
Bo Nix run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 1:54
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 12 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com