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ASU

Arizona State 42 at Colorado 34

COLO
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:31 · Eddie Czaplicki punt for 64 yds , Jordyn Tyson returns for 13 yds to the Colo 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Home team on offense−11.7Pregame prior−11.3Score differential−6.2Garbage-time factor−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:52: J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +6.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 7:59: Xazavian Valladay run for 42 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK) — ASU win probability +7.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:16: J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 58 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK) — COLO win probability +9.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:55: Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK) — ASU win probability +8.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:11: Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK) — ASU win probability +12.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:00COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51COLO 4th & 4 at ASU 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:12COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:06ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:05COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 36, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:13ASU 4th & 13 at ASU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:59COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:47COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:49COLO 4th & 1 at ASU 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−2.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:50ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 48, up 15
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:37ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:39ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52COLO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:59ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:16COLO Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:55ASU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:11ASU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:40ASU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:12COLO Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Brady Russell for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
27.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
28.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 35 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2372% → 72%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
28.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 8 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+10
28.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 10 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
28.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+13
28.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 13 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
28.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 1 yd to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+26
28.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 26 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
28.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Chad Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the Colo 4Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:4629% → 31%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.5%
Deion Smith run for 11 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
28.6%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
28.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 12 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
28.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
28.9%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Caleb Fauria for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
28.9%
Jayle Stacks run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
28.9%
Drew Carter run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35 Drew Carter fumbled, recovered by Colo Jayle StacksSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
29.0%
Jayle Stacks run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-1
28.9%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
31.0%
Cole Becker 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1269% → 73%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
30.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
30.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 18 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+35
30.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 35 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
29.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
27.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 12 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:1727% → 27%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
27.4%
Deion Smith run for 11 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
27.5%
SHROUT, J.T. pass to the left incomplete intended for TYSON, Jordyn thrown to the ASU40. PENALTY ASU Offsides on ROBERTSON, Merlin enforced 5 yards from the COL29 to the COL34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 5
OWN 34
0
27.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+15
27.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Khoury Bethley) to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
28.3%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 17
OWN 44
0
27.6%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
27.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 17
OWN 44
-2
26.7%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 44 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:5473% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
27.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 37 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Scott) to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
27.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
27.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
27.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for no gain to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+23
28.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 43 yds , Jordyn Tyson returns for 23 yds to the Colo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1428% → 35%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
28.3%
Jayle Stacks run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
28.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
28.5%
Jayle Stacks run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
27.9%
Deion Smith run for 25 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
28.5%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
28.5%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
35.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5367% → 76%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
32.9%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
32.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
31.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
50
-10
31.1%
BOURGUET, Trenton pass to the right complete for 9 yards to JOHNSON, Cam caught at the COL46 and advanced to the COL41 (TAYLOR, Tyrin), out of bounds. PENALTY ASU Holding on BOHLE, Emmit enforced 10 yards from the COL50 to the ASU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+3
32.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+5
32.5%
BOURGUET, Trenton pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Andre broken up by MOORE, Kaylin at the COL40. PENALTY COL Offsides on MARTIN, Tyas enforced 5 yards from the ASU43 to the ASU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+10
31.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 10 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
24.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for 42 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5425% → 24%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
24.6%
Jayle Stacks run for 13 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
25.5%
Jayle Stacks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+2
24.5%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
24.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+8
23.7%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 43 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 8 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5275% → 74%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
24.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
25.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 13
OWN 26
0
25.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
25.9%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 41 yds, downed at the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:5725% → 34%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
24.6%
Deion Smith run for 11 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
25.5%
J.T. Shrout sacked by Joe Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
24.6%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+58
33.7%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 58 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2168% → 79%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.3%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+26
31.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 26 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
30.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+1
30.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 1 yd to the Colo 43Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+11
30.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 11 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
28.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 5 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
29.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+26
30.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 26 yds to the Colo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:3723% → 23%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+32
23.2%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 32 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.7%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
24.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
23.8%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
22.6%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 39 yds, downed at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
22.5%
[NH] Kneel down by BOURGUET, Trenton at ASU14 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2976% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
24.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+13
24.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 64 yds , Jordyn Tyson returns for 13 yds to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2924% → 22%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
23.5%
Deion Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 17Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
23.3%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
22.6%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+7
21.7%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 38 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 7 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5178% → 91%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
21.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 22 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
21.6%
Elijhah Badger run for 9 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
21.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-5
21.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Des Holmes) to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+8
21.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 8 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
21.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+8
21.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Andre Johnson for 8 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+6
21.8%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the Colo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
21.2%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the Colo 5Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.7%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1212% → 11%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.6%
Jayle Stacks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
11.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
11.3%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 46 yds , Javen Jacobs returns for 5 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1691% → 93%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.6%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
7.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Giovanni Sanders for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
7.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:5612% → 14%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
12.0%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
11.8%
Charlie Offerdahl run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+15
11.8%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Deion Smith for 15 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.7%
SHROUT, J.T. pass to the left incomplete intended for TYSON, Jordyn thrown to the ASU0. PENALTY ASU Pass Interference on WOODS, Ed enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the ASU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
12.6%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
12.6%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
12.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+27
14.3%
Cole Becker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5890% → 90%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
10.2%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
10.0%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 54 yds , Jordyn Tyson returns for no gain to the Colo 28 COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the Colo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:3212% → 14%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+38
12.4%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 38 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
14.2%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
14.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+7
13.9%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
14.0%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
13.9%
J.T. Shrout pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:3791% → 99%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
8.9%
Xazavian Valladay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+32
6.8%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 32 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.1%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+28
6.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Elijhah Badger for 28 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
5.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 6 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
5.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
1.5%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 20 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
16 plays · 71 yds · 4:212% → 7%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
2.1%
Deion Smith run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
2.2%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+18
2.1%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to R.J. Sneed II for 18 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
2.3%
Deion Smith run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
2.4%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
2.3%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
2.3%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
2.3%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+7
2.2%
Deion Smith run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
2.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+15
2.5%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jack Hestera for 15 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
2.5%
Deion Smith run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
2.5%
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 9 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.5%
J.T. Shrout pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
2.5%
Deion Smith run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.7%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 4:2296% → 92%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
4.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+20
4.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Bryan Thompson for 20 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
3.9%
NGATA, Daniyel rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the ASU49 (CHANDLER-SEMEDO, Josh). PENALTY ASU Holding on BOHLE, Emmit enforced 10 yards from the ASU43 to the ASU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+2
4.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+7
4.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+6
4.0%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Daniyel Ngata for 6 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+88
8.1%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 40 yds , Jordyn Tyson returns for 88 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:4892% → 97%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
8.0%
Xazavian Valladay run for no gain to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
8.1%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Messiah Swinson for 13 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
5.5%
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+26
5.6%
Xazavian Valladay run for 26 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
4.8%
[NH] Kneel down by BOURGUET, Trenton at COL38 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
4.8%
[NH] Kneel down by BOURGUET, Trenton at COL40 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
2.9%
[NH] Kneel down by BOURGUET, Trenton at COL41 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:11
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 5 yds for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 3:16
J.T. Shrout pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 58 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q2 0:55
Xazavian Valladay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Brown KICK)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com