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USC

USC 45 at Arizona 37

ARIZ
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:50 · Jayden de Laura pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior−14.0Home team on offense−3.9Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:58: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +11.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:08: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 47 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +15.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:58: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 19 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:42: Michael Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARIZ win probability +20.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:38: Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +14.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:56USC 4th & 4 at ARIZ 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:49ARIZ 4th & 10 at USC 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:59ARIZ 4th & 8 at USC 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:21USC 4th & 15 at ARIZ 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    36% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:50ARIZ 4th & 4 at USC 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:07ARIZ 4th & 12 at USC 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−7.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:43ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:13USC 4th & 5 at ARIZ 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:48USC 4th & 5 at USC 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:47ARIZ 4th & 19 at ARIZ 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−4.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:11USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−4.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:22ARIZ 4th & 13 at USC 22, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:07USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−1.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 4USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:57USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:33USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:58USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:08USC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:58ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:42ARIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:38USC Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:24USC Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:26ARIZ Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:5975% → 73%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
25.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
25.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
25.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
25.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+22
25.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 22 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
25.8%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-5
25.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
26.0%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-1
26.4%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
26.6%
Denis Lynch 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4127% → 31%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.8%
Jonah Coleman run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
27.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 18 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
27.8%
Michael Wiley run for 7 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
27.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
28.5%
Anthony Simpson run for 11 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
28.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
30.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 23 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0170% → 72%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.9%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
30.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 17 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
30.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+21
30.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 21 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
30.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+15
30.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 15 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
30.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.5%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 6 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:0329% → 32%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
29.7%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+33
29.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 33 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
31.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
31.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
32.2%
Tyler Loop 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5069% → 75%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+46
30.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 46 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
29.4%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
29.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+7
30.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 7 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
29.8%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
29.9%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:2427% → 30%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.1%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
27.5%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
27.3%
Jayden de Laura run for 6 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
28.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+17
28.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 17 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
29.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+21
29.1%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
30.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
30.2%
Michael Wiley run for 17 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
31.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
30.3%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
29.7%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
30.2%
Tyler Loop 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7MISSED FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 4:2970% → 69%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
30.5%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
30.2%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
29.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jeremy Mercier) to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
28.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Josh Falo for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
29.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+8
29.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 8 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
28.4%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-14
27.2%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-14 Yards) to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
29.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+5
30.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 5 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 15
OPP 39
+56
31.4%
Denis Lynch 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:2230% → 31%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
29.8%
Jayden de Laura run for 12 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
31.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
31.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+10
29.6%
Jayden de Laura run for 10 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
31.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 1 yd to the USC 38Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
31.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the USC 37Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
31.5%
Jayden de Laura run for 4 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
30.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:3771% → 72%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
29.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
27.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+14
28.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to CJ Williams for 14 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
28.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 34 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4433% → 38%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-10
33.3%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 4Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 20
OWN 4
+13
33.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+73
32.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 73 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
39.1%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
39.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
37.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 0
OPP 7
-5
36.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 12Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
38.0%
Tyler Loop 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5863% → 78%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+70
37.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 70 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.0%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:0325% → 24%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
24.6%
DJ Williams run for 18 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
26.4%
DJ Williams run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
25.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to DJ Williams for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-10
25.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+13
23.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 13 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Jayden de Laura punt for 35 yds, downed at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:1777% → 78%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+53
23.0%
Michael Jackson III run for 53 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
20.3%
Josh Falo run for 5 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
20.1%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
20.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
22.4%
Denis Lynch 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14INT
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:1624% → 26%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+34
24.3%
Jayden de Laura run for 34 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-17
26.3%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted Bryson Shaw return for 17 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
11.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 47 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
11.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:4915% → 29%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
14.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 22 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
15.3%
DJ Williams run for 13 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
15.9%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
27.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 19 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
29.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0279% → 78%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
20.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
22.2%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 27 yds, downed at the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:4324% → 48%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
24.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 37 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
27.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 10 yds to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
47.9%
Michael Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5864% → 83%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.4%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
34.8%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
33.9%
Travis Dye run for 13 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
33.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 6 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+15
33.0%
Austin Jones run for 15 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
31.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
32.3%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+11
33.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (11 Yards) to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
31.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
17.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3621% → 19%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
21.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to DJ Williams for 26 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
24.4%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-12
24.6%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
20.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 19
OWN 42
+10
19.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 51 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 10 yds to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:0780% → 96%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
19.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+2
18.6%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
17.2%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
16.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
15.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
12.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
12.8%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
12.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 6 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+7
13.0%
Caleb Williams run for 7 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
11.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
10.7%
Travis Dye run for 22 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.1%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:346% → 14%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
5.5%
Jayden de Laura run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
5.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 18 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
4.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
5.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
5.2%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
4.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
4.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the USC 19Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-3
4.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+14
3.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 14 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
4.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds for a TD, (Jayden de Laura pass to Jacob Cowing for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:2096% → 97%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
4.3%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
3.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
3.1%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+3
3.8%
Caleb Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:42
Michael Wiley run for 10 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+20.8
TD · Q3 5:08
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 47 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q4 13:38
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyle Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com