Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 30 at Oregon 45

ORE
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-3.8ORE 95.3%Jake Bobo 22 Yd pass from DorianThompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-MiraKick)AWAY 30 - HOME 45 · Q4 4:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:11 · Jake Bobo 22 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Home team on offense+23.1Score differential+10.3Pregame prior+1.1Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +4.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:38: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 36 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +6.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:49: Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 49 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +6.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:34: Jordan James 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +6.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:56: Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick) — UCLA win probability +8.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:36ORE 4th & 8 at UCLA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:09UCLA 4th & 18 at ORE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:10UCLA 4th & 5 at ORE 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:00UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 47, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:27UCLA 4th & 9 at ORE 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−6.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:45ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.1%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:00ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 38, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:50UCLA 4th & 8 at ORE 49, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:37ORE 4th & 4 at UCLA 37, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:46UCLA 4th & 6 at ORE 13, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:09ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:00ORE 4th & 14 at UCLA 17, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:56ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:38UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:49ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:34ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:52ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:56UCLA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:37ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:11UCLA Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:0466% → 66%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
65.6%
Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
65.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 17 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
65.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 9 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
65.7%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
65.8%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
65.7%
Jordan James run for 4 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
65.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
65.8%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+2
65.6%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
65.7%
Camden Lewis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2FG
17 plays · 46 yds · 6:0634% → 35%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
65.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
65.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 7 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
65.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+8
65.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 8 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
65.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 8 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+5
65.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 5 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
64.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
64.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
64.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 3 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
64.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 14
0
64.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Josiah NorwoodSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-10
64.8%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 13
OPP 24
-5
65.3%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 18
OPP 29
0
65.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+47
64.7%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4965% → 70%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.5%
Bucky Irving run for no gain to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
64.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+18
63.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 18 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
65.4%
Bucky Irving run for 11 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
65.7%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
65.8%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Terrance FergusonSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
66.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+8
65.6%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
70.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0231% → 39%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
68.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kazmeir AllenSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
69.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 8 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
68.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 15 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
67.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+6
67.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
61.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 36 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4964% → 72%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.0%
OREGON Penalty, Delay of Game (Bo Nix) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
63.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 4 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
63.8%
Bucky Irving run for 13 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.5%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
65.2%
Bo Nix run for 11 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
71.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 49 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1171% → 80%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
71.4%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-5
71.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-5
70.9%
OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+26
71.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 26 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
72.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
72.5%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
72.6%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the UCLA 22Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
73.2%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the UCLA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
73.5%
Sean Dollars run for 9 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
79.7%
Jordan James 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:5022% → 24%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
77.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 19 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
77.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 6 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+15
76.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 15 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
76.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-2
76.5%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
77.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for no gain to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
76.5%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
18 plays · 88 yds · 2:4478% → 87%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
77.7%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
78.1%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
78.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
79.5%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+16
80.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 16 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
80.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 2 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+15
79.7%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
80.1%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+24
80.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 24 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
80.9%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.8%
Troy Franklin 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 5:1814% → 15%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
85.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 11 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
85.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
86.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Josiah NorwoodSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+2
86.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+10
86.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
85.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
86.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 10 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
85.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+8
85.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 8 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
85.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-3
85.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+1
89.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 1 yd to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
84.7%
Nicholas Barr-Mira 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 7:0888% → 98%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
88.1%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-1
88.1%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+7
87.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+2
87.7%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
88.8%
Jordan James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
88.9%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+3
88.9%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
88.9%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
90.3%
Noah Whittington run for 13 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
92.3%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+4
92.6%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+8
92.8%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
93.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 14 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
93.5%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
97.9%
Cam McCormick 17 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 2:443% → 10%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
97.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 33 yds to the OREGON 36 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
97.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Kam BrownSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+11
98.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
98.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 7 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+27
97.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 27 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.7%
Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0894% → 99%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.9%
Noah Whittington run for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
94.6%
Sean Dollars run for 18 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
94.9%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
95.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+4
95.1%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+37
98.5%
Bucky Irving 37 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14INT
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:341% → 1%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
98.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
98.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
98.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 12 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
98.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+5
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
98.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 7:46
4TH & 6
OPP 13
0
98.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted, touchback. Bryan Addison return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 1 yd to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
99.2%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seven McGeeSimilar
Q4 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+52
99.3%
Ross James punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the OREGON 40 UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCLA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:521% → 5%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Colson Yankoff for 11 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Titus Mokiao-AtimalalaSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+19
99.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 19 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
95.3%
Jake Bobo 22 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 22 yds · 4:0798% → 99%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
97.6%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
98.0%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-5
98.3%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-5
98.3%
OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+13
98.4%
Bo Nix run for 13 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.6%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+10
98.6%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 13
OPP 16
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 17
0
98.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:56
Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)
-8.3
TD · Q2 10:49
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 49 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 6:34
Jordan James 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com