Try the model
WASH

Washington 28 at California 21

CAL
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:35 · Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the Wash 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior−15.5Home team on offense−4.2Garbage-time factor−1.7Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:20: Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +16.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:48: Cameron Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Penix Jr. pass to Ja'Lynn Polk for Two-Point Conversion) — WASH win probability +22.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:10: Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 48 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +19.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:49: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +22.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +16.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:45WASH 4th & 8 at CAL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:19CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:01WASH 4th & 3 at CAL 18, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:04CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:35CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50CAL 4th & 2 at WASH 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49CAL 4th & 14 at WASH 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 49, up 6
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:34CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:11CAL 4th & 7 at WASH 8, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:05WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:21CAL 4th & 20 at CAL 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:13WASH 4th & 16 at WASH 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:28CAL 4th & 2 at WASH 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−4.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−4.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q3 10:20CAL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:48WASH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:10CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:49WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:19WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:11CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:1073% → 72%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
27.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 6 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+25
27.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 25 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
27.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
27.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+6
27.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 6 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
27.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 4 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-2
28.2%
Michael Penix Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
28.5%
Peyton Henry 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2129% → 29%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
28.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
29.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
29.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
29.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for no gain to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
29.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:1271% → 71%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 5 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
29.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+19
30.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 19 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
29.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
29.5%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
29.7%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Jalen McMillan) to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+13
30.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
29.6%
Sam Adams II run for 1 yd to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
30.1%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
29.8%
Cameron Davis run for 5 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
30.0%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
30.5%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Jack Westover) to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+7
30.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 7 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
29.1%
Peyton Henry 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4630% → 29%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
30.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+3
29.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
29.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+6
29.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 46 yds , Jalen McMillan returns for 6 yds to the Wash 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 38 yds · 5:5771% → 71%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
28.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+11
28.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
28.7%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Myles Jernigan for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+12
29.0%
Will Nixon run for 12 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
28.9%
Will Nixon run for 3 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
28.7%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Troy Fautanu) to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+10
28.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 10 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
28.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+18
28.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 18 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
27.5%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Cal 8Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-15
26.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cameron Davis) to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 0
OPP 23
0
27.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 0
OPP 23
+7
27.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 7 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
28.7%
Peyton Henry 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2030% → 29%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
29.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+12
29.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.1%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
30.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mason StarlingSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
29.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
28.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the Wash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0572% → 72%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
28.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 5 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
27.8%
Richard Newton run for 4 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
27.8%
Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
27.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 5 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
27.3%
Richard Newton run for 1 yd to the Wash 36Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
27.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
28.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 49 yds , Justin Richard Baker returns for no gain to the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 3:3029% → 29%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
29.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 18 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
29.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+17
29.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 17 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
31.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jeremiah Martin for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
29.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to DeCarlos Brooks for no gain to the Cal 44Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+13
28.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 13 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+3
30.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
31.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 8 yards to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+4
30.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
29.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
28.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 35 yds, downed at the Wash 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:4571% → 72%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
28.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 11 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
28.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 15 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
27.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
25.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Sam Adams II for 5 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
25.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Adams IISimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
26.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
28.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3531% → 53%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
33.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
32.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
32.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
33.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 8 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
34.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to DeCarlos BrooksSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
33.6%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+11
34.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 11 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
36.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mason Starling for 13 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
36.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
36.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 6 yds to the Wash 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
36.4%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Wash 8Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
53.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:2253% → 78%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
47.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 8 yds to the Wash 38Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
45.2%
Sam Adams II run for 4 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
45.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
44.9%
Richard Newton run for 7 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
45.1%
Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+7
45.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
44.4%
Giles Jackson run for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
44.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
44.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 11 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
44.9%
Cameron Davis run for 6 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
22.1%
Cameron Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Penix Jr. pass to Ja'Lynn Polk for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:3229% → 52%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
28.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
31.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-10
30.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
26.9%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zion Tupuola-Fetui) to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
28.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Damien Moore for 10 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
31.7%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Wash 48Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
32.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+48
51.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 48 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1455% → 82%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
44.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 17 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
41.9%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+17
41.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 17 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-9
40.8%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Collin Gamble for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 46 WASHINGTON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Michael Penix Jr.) to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+16
43.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 16 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
41.1%
Cameron Davis run for 5 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
39.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 12 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
39.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
39.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
18.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1124% → 22%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.4%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
24.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
22.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
21.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the Wash 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1180% → 94%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
19.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 6 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
18.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+17
18.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 17 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
17.7%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
17.4%
Cameron Davis run for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+36
5.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Richard Newton for 36 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 3:578% → 23%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.3%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
8.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 11 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+34
8.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 34 yds to the Wash 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
9.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 7 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
8.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 6 yds to the Wash 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
7.7%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 7 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
7.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 16Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
6.7%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Wash 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
6.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
6.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Ben Coleman) to the Wash 16Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+8
6.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
6.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+8
22.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 8 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0085% → 87%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 8 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
12.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 5 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
11.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Devin CulpSimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
11.5%
Cameron Davis run for 3 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
11.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
13.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 31 yds, downed at the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3421% → 16%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
20.5%
Jack Plummer sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+2
19.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-10
18.1%
Jack Plummer sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
16.3%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the Wash 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 1:0391% → 94%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
8.7%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the Wash 39Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
8.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ryan OttonSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-10
9.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Troy Fautanu) to the Wash 29Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+3
6.1%
Giles Jackson run for 3 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 16
OWN 32
+28
6.5%
Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Justin Richard Baker at the CALIFORNIA 35 WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cal 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:3812% → 11%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
12.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dominique Hampton) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
50
0
12.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
50
0
12.0%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
50
+8
10.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 8 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
10.5%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:48
Cameron Davis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Michael Penix Jr. pass to Ja'Lynn Polk for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.8
TD · Q4 13:49
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 13 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
-22.3
TD · Q3 2:10
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 48 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com