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USC

USC 42 at Utah 43

UTAH
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:15 · Cameron Rising run for 3 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense−7.0Garbage-time factor−3.6Score differential−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:02: Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +15.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:02: Caleb Williams pass complete to Josh Falo for 11 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +14.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:55: Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK) — UTAH win probability +25.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:15: Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 20 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +28.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +55.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:57UTAH 4th & 7 at USC 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:50UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:52UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:44USC 4th & 5 at UTAH 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−1.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:20UTAH 4th & 4 at UTAH 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00USC 4th & 18 at USC 8, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:15UTAH 4th & 2 at USC 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−3.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:05USC 4th & 26 at USC 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:48UTAH 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−21.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−25.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:16USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:53USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:08UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:20USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:01UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:15USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:30UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:02UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:02USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:55UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:15USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:48UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 6.3 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.8%−6.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3431% → 32%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.3%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Brenden RiceSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+55
69.2%
Caleb Williams run for 55 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
69.0%
Travis Dye run for 10 yds to the Utah 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.4%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1369% → 67%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Utah 25Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+23
67.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 23 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
68.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 11 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
67.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 18 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
67.7%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+7
67.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Tavion Thomas for 7 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
67.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
66.6%
Jordan Noyes 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5334% → 41%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
66.0%
Jordan Addison run for 17 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
65.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+18
64.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 18 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
64.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 18 yds to the Utah 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
63.9%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
63.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Utah 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.4%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the Utah 4Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
62.9%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Clark Phillips III) to the Utah 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4161% → 64%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.5%
Cameron Rising run for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
60.9%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
60.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 20 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
59.5%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
59.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
58.9%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+9
58.7%
Cameron Rising run for 9 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
58.7%
USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (Stanley Ta'ufo'ou) to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
64.4%
Micah Bernard run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4039% → 47%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
61.5%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the USC 32 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+65
61.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 65 yds to the Utah 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.5%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Utah 2Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 2 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1855% → 54%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
54.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 8 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.9%
Tavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
54.8%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
54.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
53.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0048% → 51%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
52.1%
Travis Dye run for 20 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
50.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
50.5%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
49.1%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
48.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
49.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1851% → 50%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
51.4%
Tavion Thomas run for 6 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
51.1%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the Utah 44Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
50.3%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
50.0%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:3753% → 56%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
47.5%
Caleb Williams run for 17 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
46.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
45.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 48Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
44.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 49Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
-20
44.2%
Caleb Williams sacked by Gabe Reid for a loss of 20 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 32
OWN 31
+23
44.5%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 52 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 23 yds to the Utah 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1945% → 58%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
45.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
50
+3
45.6%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+45
45.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 45 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.3%
Cameron Rising run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 2:4047% → 69%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
53.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 16Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
53.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 15
OWN 16
0
53.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+30
53.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 30 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
48.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 11 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
47.5%
Raleek Brown run for 2 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
46.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+36
46.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 36 yds to the Utah 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
44.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Utah 3Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Josh Falo for 3 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 0:3939% → 56%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
38.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 15 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
41.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 9 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+30
41.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 30 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
42.9%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
56.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 16 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · -8 yds · 0:1652% → 47%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
48.1%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Mario WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
50.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-5
50.9%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the USC 11Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 15
OWN 11
-3
50.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 18
OWN 8
0
52.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5049% → 68%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.4%
Cameron Rising run for 5 yds to the Utah 30Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
49.6%
Cameron Rising run for 21 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
52.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 30 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
53.4%
Devaughn Vele pass complete to Cameron Rising for 9 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+6
53.3%
Cameron Rising run for 6 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
52.7%
Tavion Thomas run for no gain to the USC 4Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 4 yds for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:4343% → 59%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
50
+28
57.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 28 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
55.6%
Travis Dye run for 11 yds to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
40.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Josh Falo for 11 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16FUMBLE
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:4846% → 48%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
46.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 18 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
48.3%
Tavion Thomas run for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
49.1%
Cameron Rising run for 3 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
48.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+3
45.3%
Cameron Rising run for 3 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
48.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
48.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+4
46.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 19 yds to the USC 13 UTAH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the USC 28Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+17
45.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 17 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
47.6%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 8 yds Micah Bernard fumbled, forced by Eric Gentry, recovered by USC Stanley Ta'ufo'ouSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:5262% → 65%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
38.1%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 7
-4
38.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Jonah Elliss for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+14
38.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 14 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
35.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+10
36.2%
Jordan Addison run for 10 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
33.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 22Similar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+24
35.0%
Caleb Williams run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-8
31.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Clark Phillips III for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 38Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 18
OWN 38
0
33.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 18
OWN 38
-8
32.6%
Caleb Williams sacked by Karene Reid for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 26
OWN 30
0
35.2%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Devaughn Vele at the Utah 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:0534% → 66%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
34.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 11 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
34.6%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+15
33.9%
USC Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
39.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 8 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
38.6%
UTAH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the USC 46Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
38.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
40.0%
Money Parks run for 13 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
39.6%
Cameron Rising run for 2 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
39.5%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+13
37.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 13 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.2%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
41.1%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.3%
Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 4:2545% → 85%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
55.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+14
55.3%
Travis Dye run for 14 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
53.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 6 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+10
51.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 10 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
49.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 2 yds to the USC 46 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 36Similar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 18
OWN 36
+26
54.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 26 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
48.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Utah 35Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
45.1%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Utah 30Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+8
45.0%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
43.3%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Utah 20Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
42.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
14.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 20 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1623% → 79%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 8 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
25.3%
Micah Bernard run for 3 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.4%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
22.7%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
21.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.2%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
25.4%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Solomon Enis for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+19
28.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 19 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
30.1%
Cameron Rising pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
29.3%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+11
26.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 11 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.9%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the USC 8Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
27.5%
Micah Bernard run for 7 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.5%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.3%
Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:3930% → 23%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
69.7%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
70.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
70.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+15
77.4%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
73.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 25Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+15
77.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
76.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:48
Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion)
+55.8
TD · Q4 6:15
Caleb Williams pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 20 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)
-28.1
TD · Q4 10:55
Cameron Rising run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jadon Redding KICK)
+25.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com