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STAN

Stanford 16 at Notre Dame 14

ND
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:59 · Jon Sot punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Pregame prior+31.5Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:22: Audric Estime run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +15.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 14:53: Drew Pyne pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 41 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +19.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:20: Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +18.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:45: Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:45 — STAN win probability +16.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30: Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 17 — ND win probability +16.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 8 of 9STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:33ND 4th & 8 at ND 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59ND 4th & 9 at ND 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:48ND 4th & 2 at STAN 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:28STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:28ND 4th & 1 at ND 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.5%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:06ND 4th & 7 at STAN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:10STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:38ND 4th & 8 at ND 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41STAN 4th & 2 at ND 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.0%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:55STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:44ND 4th & 2 at ND 24, down 10
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:44STAN 4th & 10 at ND 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:33STAN 4th & 2 at ND 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−4.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:20STAN 4th & 1 at ND 24, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−3.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−16.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:20ND 4th & 2 at ND 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.9%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:30STAN 4th & 8 at ND 38, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−1.8
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−4.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:04ND 4th & 7 at ND 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.7%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:05STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:22ND Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:53ND Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2785% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
84.8%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
84.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
84.4%
Jon Sot punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:2816% → 18%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
84.4%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
84.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+13
84.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 13 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
84.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 19 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
84.3%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+9
84.3%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
84.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 15 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.0%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0682% → 81%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
82.6%
Chris Tyree run for 11 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
82.5%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
82.4%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
81.0%
Jon Sot punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 4:0419% → 21%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.0%
Elijah Higgins run for 4 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
80.9%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
81.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
80.8%
Tanner McKee sacked by Justin Ademilola and JD Bertrand for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 16
OWN 29
-8
81.1%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 21 Casey Filkins fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+10
81.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 10 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
78.8%
punt blocked by Prince Kollie blocked by Prince KollieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:0780% → 77%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
79.8%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mayer) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 8
OPP 30
+7
79.8%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
79.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+10
79.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 10 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
79.8%
Chris Tyree run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 13
OPP 16
-5
78.1%
PYNE, Drew pass up the middle complete for 16 yards to MAYER, Michael caught at the STA10 and advanced to the STA0, TOUCHDOWN UND, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:29. PENALTY UND Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on EVANS, Mitchell enforced 5 yards from the STA16 to the STA21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 18
OPP 21
0
78.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+16
77.1%
Drew Pyne run for 16 yds to the Stanf 5Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
76.8%
Jayden Thomas run for no gain to the Stanf 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2024% → 25%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
76.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 7 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+5
75.4%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-4
75.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+11
75.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+7
74.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 7 yds to the NDame 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2275% → 72%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.7%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
75.5%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
75.4%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
74.9%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.7%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
75.5%
Audric Estime run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
75.5%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
71.9%
Jon Sot punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5628% → 30%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
71.9%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Stanf 9 Casey Filkins fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
71.9%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+7
72.2%
Casey Filkins run for 7 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
69.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3271% → 67%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
70.5%
Braden Lenzy run for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
69.2%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+10
68.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Audric Estime for 10 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
67.2%
Jon Sot punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10DOWNS
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:5733% → 43%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
67.1%
Brendon Barrow run for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
67.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 10 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
66.6%
Caleb Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
67.3%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+13
67.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 13 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
65.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 13 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
65.0%
Casey Filkins run for 8 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
64.9%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
65.0%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
64.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Caleb Robinson for 4 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
56.0%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
57.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:5562% → 64%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
62.0%
Drew Pyne run for 1 yd to the NDame 29Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
61.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
60.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 11 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
63.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
63.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
64.2%
Drew Pyne sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:4245% → 49%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
54.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
54.2%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the NDame 36Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
54.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 3 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
54.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
53.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 6 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+45
51.4%
Joshua Karty 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5844% → 47%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
56.2%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+22
56.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 22 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
54.5%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Caleb Robinson for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
54.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
54.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
52.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds, downed at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1152% → 49%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
52.2%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+2
52.6%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
51.7%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
49.0%
Jon Sot punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:0049% → 62%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
50.8%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+38
51.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 38 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
48.9%
Michael Wilson run for 7 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
48.7%
Tanner McKee run for 2 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
49.7%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.7%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
48.9%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
49.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
38.0%
Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2243% → 61%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
43.1%
Logan Diggs run for 26 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
45.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
45.6%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
47.5%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+21
45.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 21 yds to the Stanf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.8%
Audric Estime run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:4349% → 56%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.8%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
49.3%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
48.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
48.1%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
48.2%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
47.4%
Brendon Barrow run for 1 yd to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
47.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+7
43.0%
Casey Filkins run for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
44.5%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4055% → 74%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
55.1%
Drew Pyne run for 9 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
56.5%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
56.8%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
57.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
54.8%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 41 fumbled, recovered by NDame Drew PyneSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+41
74.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 41 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:3330% → 52%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.1%
Casey Filkins run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
68.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 10 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.2%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
68.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 10 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.5%
Tanner McKee run for no gain to the NDame 49Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
65.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 16 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
63.1%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-5
63.1%
MCKEE, Tanner pass to the left complete for 5 yards to TREMAYNE, Brycen caught at the UND30 and advanced to the UND27 (LEWIS, Clarence), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, STA Illegal Motion on TREMAYNE, Brycen enforced 5 yards from the UND32 to the UND37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+2
66.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 2 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+11
66.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 11 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+43
48.2%
Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:4557% → 61%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.9%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
57.5%
Audric Estime run for 11 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
59.2%
Audric Estime run for 6 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
61.8%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
60.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+6
58.9%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
62.6%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 12
50
+7
59.3%
PYNE, Drew pass up the middle incomplete intended for THOMAS, Jayden thrown to the STA44. PENALTY STA Pass Interference on MCGILL, Jonathan enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the STA43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
60.7%
Audric Estime run for 22 yds to the Stanf 21 Audric Estime fumbled, recovered by Stanf Jonathan McGill NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Holding (Michael Mayer) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:0555% → 75%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.3%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
45.3%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Stanf 24Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+4
46.8%
MCKEE, Tanner pass to the right complete for 4 yards to YUROSEK, Benjamin to the STA24 (LIUFAU, Marist;MORRISON, Benjamin). PENALTY STA Holding UND Holding on SMITH, Chris , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+22
46.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 22 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
41.4%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
41.2%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 12 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.0%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
21.4%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+1
22.3%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
25.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2641% → 25%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
41.4%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+5
41.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Logan Diggs for 5 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
41.7%
Drew Pyne run for 6 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
42.8%
Drew Pyne sacked by Stephen Herron for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
24.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0489% → 95%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.1%
[NH] Kneel down by STA at UND26 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
5.2%
[NH] Kneel down by STA at UND27 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Drew Pyne pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 41 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)
+19.2
FG · Q4 10:20
Joshua Karty 43 yd FG GOOD
-18.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the NDame 17
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com