2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:12 · Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 12 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
- TD · Q2 11:48: Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:10: Travis Dye run for 4 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +10.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:17: Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +10.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:09: Denis Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +5.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:03WSU 4th & 14 at WSU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.4%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q1 6:22WSU 4th & 18 at WSU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q1 3:32USC 4th & 10 at WSU 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call80.0%84% to makePunt78.3%−1.8average punt
- Q2 13:37USC 4th & 8 at USC 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it75.4%−0.733% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q2 11:12USC 4th & 7 at USC 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it70.5%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.0%average punt
- Q2 8:29WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.6%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q2 4:30USC 4th & 1 at WSU 24, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.3%71% to convertField goal66.6%−1.768% to makePunt61.9%−6.4average punt
- Q2 0:50WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it23.4%−1.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.0%average punt
- Q2 0:12USC 4th & 10 at WSU 48, up 3Close callPunted · 72.9% before the snapGo for it72.7%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:59USC 4th & 10 at USC 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.1%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.5%average punt
- Q3 11:14WSU 4th & 7 at USC 43, down 3Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it28.5%37% to convertField goal27.1%−1.428% to makePuntTheir call28.2%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:53USC 4th & 4 at USC 17, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.8%average punt
- Q3 7:41WSU 4th & 9 at USC 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.6%32% to convertField goal28.2%−0.338% to makePunt28.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:09USC 4th & 10 at WSU 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%−0.624% to convertField goalTheir call88.0%88% to makePunt83.2%−4.8average punt
- Q4 7:29WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 35, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q4 2:08USC 4th & 3 at WSU 14, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.8%51% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%−0.284% to makePunt94.5%−2.4average punt
- Q4 0:42WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 27, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%33% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.3%97% to makeGo for two23.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.1%97% to makeGo for two28.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10USC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:17USC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 2:4520% → 20%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
80.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 10 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
80.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 8 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
80.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 5 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
79.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD10 plays · 82 yds · 3:2180% → 81%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
79.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
79.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the WshSt 48Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
79.4%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Height, Romello, PENALTY WASHST offside (Edson, Andrew) 5 yards to the WASHST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
79.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 11 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+38
80.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 38 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0320% → 20%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
80.3%
Cameron Ward sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 14Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-5
80.5%
Cameron Ward sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 14Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 18
OWN 14
0
80.5%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FG7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2781% → 81%
Q1 5:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+25
81.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 25 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-5
81.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Armani Marsh for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 14 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Dedich) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD11 plays · 92 yds · 3:2918% → 23%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
81.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Orion Peters for 8 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
79.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Orion Peters for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
79.8%
Ward, Cameron pass incomplete, PENALTY USC substitution infraction 5 yards to the USC26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
80.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 12 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0578% → 77%
WSUDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4022% → 29%
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.2%
Ward, Cameron pass incomplete to Ferrel, Robert, PENALTY USC personal foul (Bullock, Calen) 15 yards to the WASHST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST. Bullock ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
77.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 11 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
76.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 45 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Beavers Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3073% → 72%
Q2 11:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3328% → 28%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
72.1%
Ward, Cameron pass complete to Stribling, De'Zhaun for 8 yards to the WASHST32, PENALTY WASHST illegal block (Gomness, Konner) 10 yards to the WASHST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
71.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Nakia Watson for 6 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-5
70.7%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Meredith) to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
71.8%
Nick Haberer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD14 plays · 65 yds · 6:1572% → 78%
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
71.5%
Caleb Williams run for 7 yds to the WASHST 48 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Chau Smith-Wade) to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
71.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 4 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-15
69.9%
Williams, Caleb pass complete to Williams, Mario for 3 yards to the WASHST6, PENALTY USC pass interference (Addison, Jordan) 15 yards to the WASHST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 19
OPP 24
+5
67.8%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Washington, Tahj, PENALTY WASHST offside (Stevenson, Raam) 5 yards to the WASHST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+15
67.7%
Williams, Caleb pass incomplete to Epps, Malcolm, PENALTY WASHST pass interference (Marsh, Armani) 15 yards to the WASHST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0424% → 23%
Q2 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
75.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 3 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-4
75.5%
Cameron Ward sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+15
77.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 15 yds to the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3375% → 74%
WSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5174% → 73%
WSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 2:3827% → 28%
Q3 11:14
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
72.1%
Nick Haberer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1273% → 72%
Q3 9:53
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
71.7%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0230% → 28%
USCDrive 18TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:1875% → 86%
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
75.9%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chau Smith-Wade) to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
76.2%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (David Johnson) to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+24
85.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 34 yds · 3:3513% → 12%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
87.0%
Jenkins, Jaylen rush for 5 yards to the WASHST9, PENALTY WASHST holding (Gomness, Konner) 2 yards to the WASHST2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-16
85.2%
Ward, Cameron pass incomplete to Jenkins, Jaylen, PENALTY WASHST personal foul (Stephens, Grant) 16 yards to the WASHST46, NO PLAY. Stephens ejected for Targeting. Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 23
OWN 46
-8
87.2%
Cameron Ward sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 38Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 31
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FG15 plays · 70 yds · 7:1688% → 96%
WSUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:355% → 4%
USCDrive 22FG13 plays · 51 yds · 5:1197% → 99%
Q4 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+10
98.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 10 yds to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23END OF GAME10 plays · 34 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.0%
Cameron Ward sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for no gain to the WshSt 27Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
99.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 12 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:10
Travis Dye run for 4 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q3 5:17
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Denis Lynch KICK)
+10.3
FG · Q4 9:09
Denis Lynch 27 yd FG GOOD
+5.9