View as
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUTAH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:40 · Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 47 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 13 yds to the Utah 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:14: Tavion Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK) — UTAH win probability +12.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 5:01: Cameron Rising run for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +22.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 1:07: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:39: Cameron Rising run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK) — UTAH win probability +21.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 11:17: Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 70 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +15.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 11:55UTAH 4th & 5 at UCLA 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it55.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.7%average punt
- Q1 9:46UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 29, tiedClose callPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it44.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:06UTAH 4th & 14 at UTAH 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snapGo for it53.9%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.3%average punt
- Q1 5:40UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%average punt
- Q2 10:00UTAH 4th & 4 at UCLA 5, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snapGo for it45.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call44.8%−0.592% to makePunt39.5%−5.8average punt
- Q4 9:30UTAH 4th & 1 at UTAH 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.7%−0.7average punt
- Q4 6:05UTAH 4th & 9 at UCLA 32, down 17Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−0.232% to convertField goal3.3%51% to makePunt2.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 0:31UCLA 4th & 5 at UTAH 24, up 17Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%−0.241% to convertField goal98.6%68% to makePunt97.9%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 0:10UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two52.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:34UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.0%97% to makeGo for two61.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:14UTAH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.4%97% to makeGo for two43.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:50UCLA Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:01UTAH Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick38.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call38.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q3 1:07UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:39UTAH Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call34.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two34.3%45% to convert
- Q4 11:17UCLA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call86.4%−0.197% to makeGo for two86.5%45% to convert
- Q4 9:26UCLA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 0:31UTAH Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5061% → 60%
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
39.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Logan Loya at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5640% → 40%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
39.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 9 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
40.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+5
40.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+10
40.3%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 51 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 10 yds to the Utah 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2659% → 58%
UCLADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2041% → 41%
Q1 5:40
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+13
41.1%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 47 yds , Devaughn Vele returns for 13 yds to the Utah 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5INT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0159% → 59%
UCLADrive 6TD7 plays · 97 yds · 3:1342% → 51%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
42.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 5 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+49
42.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 49 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
44.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 23 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
45.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 5 yds to the Utah 12Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
44.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 5 yds to the Utah 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7FG12 plays · 70 yds · 5:0151% → 53%
Q2 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
48.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Tavion Thomas for 4 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
48.9%
Cameron Rising run for 5 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
48.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 16 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1548% → 62%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
51.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for no gain to the Utah 31Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
51.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Josiah Norwood for 14 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9TD10 plays · 84 yds · 4:2041% → 53%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+14
59.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 14 yds to the Utah 25Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
60.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 5 yds to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+12
60.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 12 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
61.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 23 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
60.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 21 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10MISSED FG13 plays · 68 yds · 1:5753% → 57%
Q2 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+13
54.5%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 13 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11MISSED FG11 plays · 55 yds · 0:5442% → 45%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
57.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Micah Bernard for 11 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+18
59.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 18 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
54.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 13 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13TD10 plays · 48 yds · 3:5557% → 74%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
57.4%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 17 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
58.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Van Fillinger for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
57.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 4 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 5 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14TD15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3929% → 44%
Q3 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+16
73.0%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Dalton Kincaid for 16 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
71.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Makai Cope for 12 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
70.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Makai Cope for 10 yds to the UCLA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+15
73.4%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.6%
Cameron Rising run for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 9
OWN 35
+15
55.8%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4959% → 81%
Q3 3:40
3RD & 20
OWN 43
+21
58.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 21 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+24
63.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 24 yds to the Utah 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
81.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2422% → 44%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
79.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Tavion Thomas for 12 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+4
80.5%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
78.7%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 25 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
77.3%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Munir McClain for 6 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD3 plays · 61 yds · 0:2269% → 84%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
68.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by Karene Reid for 0 yards to the UCLA 39 UCLA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-9 Yards) to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+70
83.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 70 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4117% → 13%
Q4 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.1%
Cameron Rising run for 4 yds to the Utah 38 Cameron Rising fumbled, recovered by UCLA Jaylin Davies , return for 37 yds to the Utah 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19TD2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 51 yds · 3:135% → 4%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
95.2%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 18 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
95.1%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 11 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
94.5%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 6 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+5
94.8%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Jaylen Dixon for 5 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-5
95.1%
Cameron Rising sacked by Laiatu Latu and Jacob Sykes for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+8
95.9%
Cameron Rising pass complete to Money Parks for 8 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21INT TD14 plays · 52 yds · 5:2797% → 97%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
97.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 16 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
97.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+6
98.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kazmeir Allen for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 24
-80
96.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted for a TD Clark Phillips III return for 80 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22Uncategorized2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:01
Cameron Rising run for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Rising Run For Two-point Conversion)
-22.7
TD · Q4 11:39
Cameron Rising run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-21
TD · Q3 1:07
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds for a TD, (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+15.5