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Oregon 49 at Arizona 22

ARIZ
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:00 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.3Pregame prior−21.0Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:01: Bo Nix run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:42: Moliki Matavao run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +9.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:43: DJ Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +6.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:34: Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +8.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:13: Bo Nix run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +8.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 8:53ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13ARIZ 4th & 3 at ORE 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00ARIZ 4th & 13 at ORE 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:55ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:51ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 36, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:28ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 22, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:28ARIZ 4th & 10 at ORE 13, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:11ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 27, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:45ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 43, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:29ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 21, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 2:53ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:01ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:42ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:43ARIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34ORE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:13ORE Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:44ORE Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:04ORE Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:51ARIZ Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:5524% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
23.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 15 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
23.8%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
23.8%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+37
23.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 37 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
23.8%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
23.8%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+9
23.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
26.2%
Jacob Cowing run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 11 Jacob Cowing fumbled, recovered by Oregn DJ JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1274% → 73%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
25.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+6
25.7%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
25.7%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+6
25.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
26.9%
Ross James punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:4027% → 30%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
26.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
27.3%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
27.3%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the right incomplete intended for SINGER, Dorian thrown to the ORE30. PENALTY ORE Holding on BRIDGES, Trikweze enforced 10 yards from the ARI48 to the ORE42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
27.4%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
27.4%
Jayden de Laura run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+6
27.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
27.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
27.5%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
27.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for no gain to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
29.8%
Tyler Loop 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2070% → 73%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.8%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
29.6%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
29.8%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
29.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 10 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
27.4%
Noah Whittington run for 55 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:4429% → 28%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
29.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
29.1%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
50
+4
28.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
29.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-3
29.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
28.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
28.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:5971% → 78%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
28.8%
Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+7
28.5%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
28.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+8
28.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 8 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
27.7%
Noah Whittington run for 15 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
27.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 42 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.2%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:0624% → 23%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.6%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-3
23.8%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
23.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 16 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
24.4%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
24.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-7
23.9%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Jeffrey Bassa for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+1
22.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 53 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 4:1377% → 88%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
23.5%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+4
23.0%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
23.2%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+30
23.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 30 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
22.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+6
22.1%
Sean Dollars run for 6 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
22.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
22.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.3%
Moliki Matavao run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5916% → 23%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+15
16.7%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the left incomplete intended for COWING, Jacob broken up by SEWELL, Noah at the ARI32. PENALTY ORE Targeting on MANNING, Dontae enforced 15 yards from the ARI33 to the ARI48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
23.3%
DJ Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0978% → 89%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
21.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 27 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
21.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seven McGee for 6 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+10
21.0%
Bo Nix run for 10 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
20.0%
Jordan James run for 11 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
19.9%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
19.0%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.1%
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:3419% → 22%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
18.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+43
17.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 43 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
21.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
21.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jahlil Florence) to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
21.5%
Tyler Loop 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4784% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.3%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
16.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 23 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
15.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 17 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
14.9%
Bucky Irving run for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
15.0%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+11
15.2%
Bo Nix run for 11 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
14.9%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for COTA, Chase thrown to the ARI5. PENALTY ARI Offsides on ECHOLS, Hunter enforced 5 yards from the ARI20 to the ARI15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+12
14.9%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offsides (Kyon Barrs) to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.0%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:209% → 9%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.8%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:0994% → 98%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
5.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 6 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+10
5.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seven McGee for 10 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
5.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
2.4%
Bucky Irving run for 23 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15FUMBLE
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:253% → 2%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
2.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
2.7%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
2.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 38 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
3.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 13 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-29
1.6%
Jayden de Laura sacked for a loss of 29 yards to the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:1598% → 99%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
1.8%
Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+12
1.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seven McGee for 12 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
1.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seven McGee for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
1.7%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.9%
Bo Nix run for 25 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
0.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
0.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
0.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
0.8%
Jonah Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
0.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
0.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
0.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+2
0.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
0.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+33
0.8%
Ross James punt for 42 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for 33 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
0.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 18 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
0.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
0.5%
Tyler Loop 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.6%
Bucky Irving run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
0.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Moliki Matavao) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
0.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for 4 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.6%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.6%
Adam Barry punt for 58 yds , Jacob Cowing returns for no gain to the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
0.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 7 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+15
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 5 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+11
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 11 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.4%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+11
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 11 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
0.4%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass up the middle incomplete intended for MCLACHLAN, Tanner thrown to the ORE32. PENALTY Before the snap, ORE Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ORE32 to the ORE27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+5
0.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 5 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.4%
COLEMAN, Jonah rush up the middle for no gain to the ORE22 (WILLIAMS, Bennett;SEWELL, Noah). PENALTY ORE Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Bennett enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the ORE22 to the ORE11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.3%
Tetairoa McMillan 11 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.4%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Sean Dollars for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
0.4%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
0.3%
THOMPSON, Ty pass to the right intercepted by TAYLOR, Isaiah at the ARI40 intended for DOLLARS, Sean. Taylor return for 0 yards to the ARI40, End of Play. PENALTY ARI Offsides on BRANCH-HAYNES, Evan enforced 5 yards from the ORE32 to the ORE37 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
0.3%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Sean Dollars for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Jordan James run for 5 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Adam Barry punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the Ariz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
0.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 4 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
0.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Keyan Burnett for 1 yd to the Ariz 21Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:40100% → 100%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.2%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Jordan James run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
0.2%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Kyler Kasper for 4 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
0.2%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+13
0.2%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
0.1%
Jordan James run for 24 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.1%
Kneel down by THOMPSON, Ty at ARI23 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
0.1%
Kneel down by THOMPSON, Ty at ARI25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:42
Moliki Matavao run for 3 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 11:13
Bo Nix run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q2 0:34
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com