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STAN

Stanford 27 at Oregon 45

ORE
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:47 · Ross James punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Pregame prior+13.9Home team on offense+31.2Score differential+23.2Garbage-time factor+9.8Blowout margin+10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 49 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:22: Troy Franklin 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +4.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:59: Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:01: Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:46: Bo Nix run for 80 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:51STAN 4th & 11 at STAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00ORE 4th & 16 at STAN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18STAN 4th & 12 at STAN 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:25ORE 4th & 13 at STAN 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:16STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 16, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:37STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 28, down 10
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:19ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:37STAN 4th & 5 at ORE 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:35STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47ORE 4th & 13 at ORE 40, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:07STAN 4th & 15 at STAN 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:47ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:45STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 41, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:05STAN 4th & 16 at STAN 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:39ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 45, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:22STAN 4th & 10 at ORE 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:56ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 10, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:56STAN 4th & 2 at ORE 42, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:00ORE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:22ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:59ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:01ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:01STAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:46ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:12STAN Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:31ORE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:03STAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0917% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-3
83.4%
Tanner McKee sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+2
83.4%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+2
83.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 48 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 3:5183% → 82%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
83.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+12
83.2%
Bucky Irving run for 12 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
83.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
83.2%
Bucky Irving run for 18 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
83.2%
Bucky Irving run for 6 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
83.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 4
OPP 21
-5
82.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for no gain to the Stanf 21 OREGON Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BASS, T.J. enforced (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+12
82.8%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
82.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
82.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Cam McCormick) to the Stanf 19Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+2
82.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+5
82.7%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for FERGUSON, Terrance thrown to the STN1. PENALTY STN Offsides on HERRON, Stephen enforced 5 yards from the STN17 to the STN12 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
82.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Marcus Harper II) to the Stanf 17Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-3
82.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 20Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 16
OPP 20
+38
82.2%
Camden Lewis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 4:4218% → 19%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
82.3%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
82.2%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+8
82.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 8 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
82.1%
Casey Filkins run for 7 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
82.1%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-9
82.1%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 40 Casey Filkins fumbled, recovered by Stanf Casey FilkinsSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+7
82.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 7 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 12
OWN 47
+5
81.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 35 yds , Kris Hutson returns for 5 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5381% → 80%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
81.1%
Bucky Irving run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
81.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
81.7%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
81.8%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 31
0
81.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
81.6%
WHITTINGTON, Noah rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the STN25 (BONNER, Ethan;MANGUM-FARRAR, Jacob). PENALTY ORE Holding on HARPER II, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the STN31 to the STN41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
81.3%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Bo Nix punt for 34 yds, downed at the Stanf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0920% → 20%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
80.5%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 12Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
80.5%
Casey Filkins run for 4 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
80.7%
Tanner McKee run for no gain to the Stanf 16Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
80.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:1680% → 84%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
80.2%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
83.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 49 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1717% → 17%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 4 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
82.7%
Casey Filkins run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
82.9%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1883% → 82%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
82.8%
WHITTINGTON, Noah rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ORE31 (FIELDS, Patrick). PENALTY ORE Holding on AUMAVAE-LAULU, Malaesala enforced 10 yards from the ORE25 to the ORE15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
82.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
82.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 14 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Ross James punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:4217% → 19%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
82.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 10 yds to the Stanf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
82.7%
OREGON Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brandon Dorlus) to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
82.0%
Caleb Robinson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
81.9%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+12
82.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
81.9%
Casey Filkins run for 9 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
81.3%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 4 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
81.3%
Casey Filkins run for 20 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
81.3%
Casey Filkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.3%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.8%
Tanner McKee run for no gain to the Oregn 5Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
80.9%
Joshua Karty 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1582% → 88%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.3%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
82.9%
IRVING, Bucky rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the ORE46 (MCGILL, Jonathan). PENALTY Before the snap, ORE Illegal Motion on FERGUSON, Terrance enforced 5 yards from the ORE32 to the ORE27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
82.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 10 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.6%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+35
82.8%
Bo Nix run for 35 yds to the OREGON 23 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Stephen Herron) to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
83.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the Stanf 16Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+6
83.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
83.5%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
87.7%
Troy Franklin 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for no gain Benjamin Yurosek fumbled, recovered by Oregn Noah SewellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.8%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:246% → 6%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.7%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
94.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:3495% → 99%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
94.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+8
95.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sean Dollars for 8 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
95.0%
Bo Nix run for 18 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
95.0%
Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
95.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+16
95.7%
Noah Whittington run for 16 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
95.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for no gain to the Stanf 11Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
95.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seven McGee for 4 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-15
95.0%
OREGON Penalty, Fighting on MCGEE, Seven enforced (Seven McGee) to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 21
OPP 22
+20
95.6%
Sean Dollars run for 20 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
94.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Patrick Fields) to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1399% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
Dont'e Thornton run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
98.6%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
98.7%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-1
98.7%
Bo Nix sacked by Tobin Phillips and Jaxson Moi for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+11
98.9%
Ross James punt for 48 yds , Casey Filkins returns for 11 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:401% → 1%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.0%
Casey Filkins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 24Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+10
99.0%
Michael Wilson run for 10 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
99.0%
Tanner McKee sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+2
99.0%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brendon Barrow for 2 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
99.2%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
99.1%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.2%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Ross James punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:461% → 3%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Michael Wilson for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.4%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to John Humphreys for 6 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.4%
Casey Filkins run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
99.4%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 9 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
97.1%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Casey Filkins for 42 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.6%
Bo Nix run for 80 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:260% → 2%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.6%
MCKEE, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for WILSON, Michael thrown to the ORE45. PENALTY ORE Holding on GONZALEZ, Christian enforced 10 yards from the STN36 to the STN46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.6%
Casey Filkins run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+8
99.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 8 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
99.6%
Casey Filkins run for 13 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.5%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.5%
Casey Filkins run for no gain to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.6%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 28 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4198% → 100%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
97.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 28 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.9%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+12
97.9%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
97.9%
NIX, Bo pass to the right incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Troy thrown to the STN15. PENALTY STN Pass Interference on TURNER-MUHAMMAD, Salim enforced 15 yards to the STN20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
97.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 7 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+7
98.5%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
98.5%
Sean Dollars run for 4 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Silas Starr for 7 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Benjamin Yurosek for 6 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
99.8%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
4TH & 12
OPP 43
+15
99.8%
THOMPSON, Ty pass up the middle incomplete intended for HERBERT, Patrick thrown to the STN5. PENALTY STN Roughing the Passer on ARMITAGE, Aaron enforced 15 yards from the STN43 to the STN28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 2 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Tanner McKee pass complete to Elijah Higgins for a loss of 2 yards fumbled, forced by Jahlil Florence, recovered by Stanf Brycen TremayneSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-6
99.9%
Tanner McKee sacked by DJ Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 12Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 16
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kris Hutson at the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Ty Thompson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Sean Dollars run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 9
50
0
99.9%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 9
50
-5
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jordan James) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Ross James punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the Stanf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 26FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jackson LaDuke) to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Sam Roush for 11 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
Ashton Daniels run for 7 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Colby Bowman for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Ari Patu pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Brendon Barrow run for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
99.7%
Joshua Karty 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.7%
Sean Dollars run for 2 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+3
99.8%
Ty Thompson pass complete to Sean Dollars for 3 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
99.7%
Ty Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Ross James punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Casey Filkins at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 28TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:530% → 2%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.7%
Caleb Robinson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
99.7%
Caleb Robinson run for 6 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
99.7%
Caleb Robinson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+24
99.7%
Ashton Daniels run for 24 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.9%
Ari Patu pass complete to Mudia Reuben for 18 yds for a TD, (Joshua Karty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 1:0399% → 99%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.0%
Jordan James run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.0%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:59
Bo Nix run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 4:22
Troy Franklin 10 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q2 0:01
Jordan James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com