Try the model
CAL

California 9 at Washington State 28

WSU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Gesa Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.1WSU 60.9%Dario Longhetto 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q2 9:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:13 · Dario Longhetto 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+5.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:18: Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:51: Robert Ferrel 17 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:28: Jaydn Ott 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CAL win probability +21.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:27: Cameron Ward pass incomplete — WSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:00: Renard Bell 37 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +21.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 10:33CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:11WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:26CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:11WSU 4th & 22 at WSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:59CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:13CAL 4th & 10 at WSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:42CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:36CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:07CAL 4th & 8 at WSU 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:24WSU 4th & 14 at CAL 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:10CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 22, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:19WSU 4th & 1 at CAL 1, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:41CAL 4th & 21 at CAL 25, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 36, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:16CAL 4th & 3 at WSU 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 13:18WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:51WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:28CAL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:00WSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:19WSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:2641% → 41%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
58.7%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
58.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 8 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
58.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+13
58.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 13 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for no gain to the WshSt 46Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
58.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+5
58.6%
Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
58.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WshSt 46Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 10
OPP 46
-5
58.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
58.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1559% → 59%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
58.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 18 yds to the WshSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
58.9%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
58.8%
(09:40) WARD, Cameron pass to the right complete for 7 yards to OLLIE, Donovan caught at the WSU36 and advanced to the WSU36 (YOUNG, Isaiah), clock 09:34. PENALTY WSU Illegal Touch-Pass on OLLIE, Donovan declined WSU Holding on FIFITA, Ma'ake enforced 10 yards from the WSU29 to the WSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 23
OWN 19
+6
58.8%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+16
58.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 16 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
58.8%
Cameron Ward run for 2 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.4%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
59.2%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the WshSt 44Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+1
58.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 1 yd to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
58.6%
Nick Haberer punt for 49 yds, downed at the Cal 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3441% → 40%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
58.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 1 yd to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
58.9%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 7
-6
59.2%
Jack Plummer sacked by Quinn Roff and Antonio Pule III for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 1Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 15
OWN 1
+12
59.6%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for 12 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
60.0%
(04:25) SMITHSON, Leyton rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL42 (WOODSON, Craig;LONG, Darius), clock 04:20. PENALTY WSU Holding on STRIBLING, De'Zhaun enforced 10 yards from the CAL40 to the WSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:4559% → 58%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 20
50
+2
59.4%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+6
59.4%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-10
59.3%
Cameron Ward sacked by Ethan Saunders and Xavier Carlton for a loss of 10 yards to the WshSt 48Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 22
OWN 48
0
58.3%
Nick Haberer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0542% → 41%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
58.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-2
58.1%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+3
58.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+34
59.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for 34 yds to the WASHST 46 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:2861% → 66%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.0%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 5 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
61.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Jaylen Jenkins for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+10
60.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 10 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.4%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 4:0436% → 39%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+33
64.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 33 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
63.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 13 yds to the WshSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
62.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 25Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+1
62.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the WshSt 24Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
64.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for no gain to the WshSt 24Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
60.9%
Dario Longhetto 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3462% → 65%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the WshSt 25Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 13 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
62.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 19 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
64.6%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
63.8%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+17
62.9%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Leyton Smithson for 17 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.4%
Cameron Ward pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:4738% → 37%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
62.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+29
63.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 29 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-11
59.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 21
OWN 41
-5
61.9%
Jack Plummer sacked by Christian Mejia for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 26
OWN 36
+13
63.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 13 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
63.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3964% → 62%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
63.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 18Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
63.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offsides (Ethan Saunders) to the WshSt 23Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
63.5%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
62.2%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
61.6%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3038% → 38%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
62.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
59.6%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-2
60.2%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
61.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
63.7%
run for no gain to the WshSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0764% → 79%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.2%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 11 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+47
65.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 47 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.7%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
78.8%
Robert Ferrel 17 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1424% → 22%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
76.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
77.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
77.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for 11 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15INT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:3778% → 81%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
79.7%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
78.7%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, False Start (Robert Ferrel) to the WshSt 34Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+22
77.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 22 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
80.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Josh Meredith for 5 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+10
79.8%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 10 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
80.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Orion Peters for 8 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
81.2%
Cameron Ward pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3021% → 20%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+18
78.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 18 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
79.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 11 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
78.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 22 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
76.7%
(08:12) OTT, Jaydn rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the WSU37 (HICKS, Jaden;THORNTON, Kyle), clock 08:04. PENALTY CAL Holding on DRISCOLL, Brian enforced 10 yards from the WSU47 to the CAL43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+6
79.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
78.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+6
79.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 6 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
80.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 34 yds, downed at the WshSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:3482% → 85%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
81.7%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 5 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+11
82.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 11 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
83.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 15 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
84.7%
(04:06) WARD, Cameron pass to the left complete for 6 yards to SMITHSON, Leyton caught at the WSU47 and advanced to the WSU48 (EARBY, Jeremiah), clock 03:57. PENALTY WSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on KINGSTON, Jarrett enforced 5 yards from the WSU42 to the WSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+18
84.5%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 18 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
85.6%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
86.4%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
85.9%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 9
OPP 44
-5
84.9%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Illegal Snap on SAMARZICH, Simon enforced (-5 Yards) to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
84.5%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:4716% → 40%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
84.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 14 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
84.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 5 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 0:04
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
83.7%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-10
84.6%
(14:59) QB Keeper PLUMMER, Jack rush to the left for a gain of 28 yards to the WSU43 (LOCKETT III, Sam), clock 14:51. PENALTY CAL Holding on COLEMAN, Ben enforced 10 yards from the CAL29 to the CAL19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+30
86.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 30 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
82.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 49 yds to the WshSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.5%
Jaydn Ott 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2772% → 93%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.3%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Robert Ferrel for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+32
71.1%
Cameron Ward pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 32 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
92.5%
Renard Bell 37 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4911% → 8%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.6%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
88.8%
J. Michael Sturdivant run for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
90.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 6 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
91.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Robert Ferrel at the WshSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:4692% → 98%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
92.4%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
92.8%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 9 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
93.3%
Nakia Watson run for 23 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
93.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 20 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
93.8%
Nakia Watson run for 10 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.6%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.7%
Cameron Ward pass complete to Renard Bell for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.8%
Cameron Ward pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Billy Riviere III 1 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:373% → 2%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 11 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
97.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jack Plummer) to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-10
98.0%
Jack Plummer sacked by Nusi Malani for a loss of 10 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 21
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Robert Ferrel returns for 3 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.7%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
99.0%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+1
99.1%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the WshSt 36Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Nick Haberer punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:441% → 1%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.3%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 9 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
99.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
99.4%
Kai Millner pass complete to Keleki Latu for 7 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
99.2%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Kai Millner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:28
Jaydn Ott 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-21.8
TD · Q4 12:00
Renard Bell 37 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)
+21.4
TD · Q3 13:51
Robert Ferrel 17 Yd pass from Cameron Ward (Dean Janikowski Kick)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com