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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:22 · Tyler Loop 29 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:16: Dorian Singer 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ARIZ win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:42: J. de Laura pass,to T. McLachlan for 8 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK), (T. Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +4.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:10: Tetairoa McMillan 23 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick) — ARIZ win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:57: Anthony Hankerson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick) — COLO win probability +9.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:57: Michael Wiley 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick) — ARIZ win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 1:19ARIZ 4th & 3 at COLO 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.9%44% to convertField goal83.7%−0.293% to makePunt82.5%−1.4average punt
- Q2 14:39COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 40, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it14.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q2 11:53ARIZ 4th & 1 at COLO 1, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.1%59% to convertField goal84.2%−0.894% to makePunt82.1%−2.9average punt
- Q2 9:27COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 19, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q2 6:30COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 23, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.3%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q2 2:48COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 27, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.8%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q2 1:55ARIZ 4th & 9 at ARIZ 24, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it88.9%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%average punt
- Q3 11:02COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 40, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.5%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.8%average punt
- Q3 1:22ARIZ 4th & 2 at COLO 12, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.6%56% to convertField goalTheir call91.7%−0.986% to makePunt86.5%−6.1average punt
- Q4 13:29COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 43, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%52% to convertField goal5.1%−1.328% to makePunt5.6%−0.8average punt
- Q4 0:00COLO 4th & 6 at ARIZ 39, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%40% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.136% to makePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:58ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:35COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.4%97% to makeGo for two14.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:16ARIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick88.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:42ARIZ Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:10ARIZ Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:57COLO Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.0%97% to makeGo for two7.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:57ARIZ Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARIZDrive 1TD15 plays · 75 yds · 9:5889% → 87%
COLODrive 2TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:2713% → 14%
ARIZDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4186% → 87%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
86.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 19 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
86.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Morgan) to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
86.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 9 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Tanner McLachlan) to the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2114% → 14%
ARIZDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 59 yds · 12:3987% → 86%
COLODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 9:2715% → 17%
Q2 9:27
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+4
85.2%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 40 , Jacob Cowing returns for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.5%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Erik Olsen, broken up by Christian YoungSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
82.7%
pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-Craig COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (Gerad Christian-Lichtenhan) to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-3
83.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Maurice Bell for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD3 plays · 60 yds · 8:1686% → 91%
COLODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 6:3011% → 11%
ARIZDrive 9TD4 plays · 65 yds · 3:4294% → 96%
Q2 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.5%
J. de Laura pass,to T. McLachlan for 8 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK), (T. Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:487% → 10%
ARIZDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5590% → 90%
Q2 1:55
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 41 yds , Chase Penry returns for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0512% → 13%
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
88.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Daniel Arias for 14 yds for a TD, (Cole Becker PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.3%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-Craig, broken up by Tiaoalii SaveaSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.4%
pass incomplete to Ty Robinson ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
+41
89.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Deion Smith for 41 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13MISSED FG5 plays · 50 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
90.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 28 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
91.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 5 yds to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 11:029% → 9%
ARIZDrive 15TD6 plays · 80 yds · 8:1097% → 99%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.3%
Tetairoa McMillan 23 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
98.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 29 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
98.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
98.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 13 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 4:5711% → 10%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+42
91.6%
Owen McCown pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 42 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2394% → 96%
Q3 2:23
2ND & 20
OPP 30
0
93.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Keyan Burnett, broken up by Tyrin TaylorSimilar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+18
93.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 18 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
95.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
95.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 12 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 32 yds · 1:316% → 6%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
93.7%
Owen McCown run for 8 yds to the Colo 43 Owen McCown pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
93.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 5 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
93.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Anthony Hankerson for 2 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD11 plays · 57 yds · 9:4597% → 100%
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
96.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillan, broken up by Kaylin MooreSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 13 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Michael Wiley, broken up by Na'im RodmanSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+19
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 19 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Dorian Singer, broken up by Trevor WoodsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 11 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20Uncategorized10 plays · 63 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to Maurice Bell for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+15
99.5%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaydin Young) to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
99.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Daniel Arias for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21Uncategorized9 plays · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+16
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 16 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+11
99.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:57
Anthony Hankerson 7 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)
-9.6
TD · Q3 8:10
Tetairoa McMillan 23 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)
+5.9
TD · Q2 3:42
J. de Laura pass,to T. McLachlan for 8 yds for a TD, (T. Loop KICK), (T. Loop KICK)
+4.4