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USC

USC 17 at Oregon State 14

ORST
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.5ORST 56.3%Denis Lynch 42 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q2 5:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:38 · Denis Lynch 42 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differential
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+2.5Pregame prior−4.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin+0.5Score differential+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:18: Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +6.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:23: Travis Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 3 — USC win probability +15.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:35: Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the USC 23 — USC win probability +13.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:13: Jordan Addison 21 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +55.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:07: Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37 — ORST win probability +17.4 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:16USC 4th & 6 at ORST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:16USC 4th & 6 at ORST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:51ORST 4th & 7 at USC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:16USC 4th & 9 at ORST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:16USC 4th & 9 at ORST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:16ORST 4th & 4 at USC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−0.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:08USC 4th & 15 at USC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:08USC 4th & 15 at USC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:38USC 4th & 5 at ORST 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:29ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:29ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:02ORST 4th & 8 at USC 41, up 5
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−1.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:49USC 4th & 23 at ORST 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−5.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−2.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:18USC 4th & 2 at ORST 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−3.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−20.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:34ORST 4th & 16 at USC 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−5.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−13.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:34ORST 4th & 16 at USC 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−5.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−13.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:37USC 4th & 8 at USC 30, down 5
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:25USC 4th & 13 at USC 2, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:25USC 4th & 13 at USC 2, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−2.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:35USC 4th & 6 at USC 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.5%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:18ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:13USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:4058% → 58%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+36
41.9%
Travis Dye run for 36 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
41.9%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
41.9%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
42.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
42.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete USC Penalty, turnover on downs, . PENALTY Illegal Motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
42.4%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete USC Penalty, turnover on downs, . PENALTY Illegal Motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2543% → 44%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
42.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+6
42.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 2
50
-5
42.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Jack Velling) to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
42.6%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
42.7%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
42.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 3 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
42.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
43.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 34 yds, downed at the USC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3MISSED FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:3556% → 55%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
43.6%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
43.8%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
44.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
43.9%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
43.4%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+12
43.4%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
43.2%
Caleb Williams run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
43.2%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+16
43.3%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
43.0%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
43.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
43.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+9
44.2%
Caleb Williams run for 9 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+35
45.2%
Denis Lynch 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+35
45.2%
Denis Lynch 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:5847% → 56%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
46.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Colletto for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
50
+4
47.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
47.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for no gain to the USC 46Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
47.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+24
47.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 24 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
49.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 1 yd to the USC 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+7
49.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 7 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
49.0%
run for 3 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
49.7%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 5 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
56.1%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 3:1045% → 43%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
54.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
54.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
54.4%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
55.4%
USC Penalty, Delay Of Game (Terrell Bynum) to the USC 40Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
56.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
56.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-1
54.2%
Raleek Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 43Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 45 ydsSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:3156% → 61%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+11
56.4%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+21
56.7%
Jam Griffin run for 21 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
57.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 10 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
58.2%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
56.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
61.3%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
61.3%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5942% → 44%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
58.4%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+22
59.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Mario Williams for 22 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
56.7%
Travis Dye run for 19 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
55.4%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
55.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+4
56.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
56.3%
Denis Lynch 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 5:0559% → 61%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
58.6%
Jam Griffin run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
58.9%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
58.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
57.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
60.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Heneli Bloomfield) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+10
58.6%
Damien Martinez run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
60.5%
Damien Martinez run for no gain to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+2
59.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Alex Austin for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
60.7%
OREGON ST Penalty, False Start (Taliese Fuaga) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
60.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 47 yds, downed at the USC 11Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
60.9%
Luke Loecher punt for 47 yds, downed at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2937% → 37%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
63.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
62.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+5
62.6%
Raleek Brown run for 5 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:5860% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
59.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Anthony Gould for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
61.4%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
61.3%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
60.4%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
60.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 8 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
61.9%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
61.7%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-2
61.3%
Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 41Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
60.4%
Chance Nolan punt for 40 yds, downed at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:1341% → 37%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
59.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
59.8%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the USC 1 Travis Dye fumbled, recovered by USC Bobby HaskinsSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+17
61.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 17 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.8%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
59.1%
Caleb Williams run for 9 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+6
58.8%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kitan Oladapo) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
54.7%
Caleb Williams sacked by Riley Sharp for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+12
57.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+8
54.7%
Caleb Williams run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
53.5%
Caleb Williams run for no gain to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
53.6%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 12
OPP 34
-11
57.0%
Caleb Williams sacked by Kitan Oladapo for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 23
OPP 45
0
62.7%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, downed at the OrgSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2464% → 64%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
63.9%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+19
63.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jack Velling for 19 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.5%
Deshaun Fenwick run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
64.5%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
63.5%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
63.5%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:0744% → 40%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
55.6%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+4
55.6%
Raleek Brown run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+5
57.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
55.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Max Williams) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+5
56.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
56.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 5 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+3
58.2%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+7
60.5%
Travis Dye 7 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:4467% → 75%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
67.4%
Anthony Gould run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
69.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 15 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
70.7%
Jam Griffin run for 12 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
72.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
72.1%
Jam Griffin run for 2 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+5
70.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
72.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
72.0%
Jam Griffin run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-10
70.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the USC 23Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 11
OPP 23
-5
69.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 28Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
68.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
74.6%
Everett Hayes 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
74.6%
Everett Hayes 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5734% → 28%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
66.2%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
66.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+6
72.2%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 44 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 7:2383% → 86%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.3%
NOLAN, Chance pass to the left incomplete intended for GOULD, Anthony thrown to the USC30. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on WRIGHT, Ceyair enforced 15 yards to the OSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.3%
pass incomplete to Jake OvermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5829% → 23%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
70.6%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
71.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (Max Williams) to the USC 1Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 13
OWN 2
0
71.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 13
OWN 2
0
72.6%
Travis Dye run for no gain to the USC 2Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 13
OWN 2
+13
76.9%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 33 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 13 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 13
OWN 2
+13
76.9%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 33 yds , Anthony Gould returns for 13 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4487% → 87%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
87.1%
Jam Griffin run for 4 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
86.7%
Jam Griffin 18 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 3:2227% → 91%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
73.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+16
71.7%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 16 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
71.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+7
73.2%
Caleb Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
50
+16
66.7%
Travis Dye run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
64.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 9 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
64.0%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
66.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
9.3%
Jordan Addison 21 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3227% → 24%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
26.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
29.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.4%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
28.0%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
23.8%
Chance Nolan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22Uncategorized
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
20.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37 Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37 Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 9 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
Jordan Addison 21 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
-55.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-20.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:07
Chance Nolan pass complete to Silas Bolden for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37
+17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com