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ARIZ

Arizona 31 at California 49

CAL
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:20 · Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense−4.5Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Pregame prior+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:40: DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD — CAL win probability +12.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:17: Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +14.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:59: Jaydn Ott run for 18 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +13.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 37 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +8.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:36: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:17ARIZ 4th & 6 at CAL 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.9%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51CAL 4th & 13 at ARIZ 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18ARIZ 4th & 13 at CAL 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:40ARIZ 4th & 18 at CAL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−2.7
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−6.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:20ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:17CAL 4th & 1 at ARIZ 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−4.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−14.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:13ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:58CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:52ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:02CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:17CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:16ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:28ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:56CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:00ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:40CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:17CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:59CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:53CAL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:36ARIZ Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:56CAL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4352% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
51.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 73 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0148% → 49%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
51.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 17 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
51.9%
Michael Wiley run for 21 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
51.8%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
51.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
51.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q1 14:17
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+7
51.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
51.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 25 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:2552% → 52%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
52.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 31 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
52.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 3 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
52.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
52.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 13
OPP 47
0
52.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the Ariz 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 4:2348% → 52%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
52.3%
Michael Wiley run for 11 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
52.2%
Michael Wiley run for 13 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
52.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 14 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
51.8%
Jayden de Laura run for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+15
51.6%
DJ Williams run for 15 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
51.6%
Michael Wiley run for 9 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+11
51.5%
Jonah Coleman run for 11 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
51.5%
Jayden de Laura run for 12 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.7%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2049% → 48%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
49.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
49.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+1
49.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 1 yd to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
49.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 8
OWN 44
-5
48.3%
Sheahan,Jamieson punt 48 yards to the ARIZ08 fair catch by Cowing,Jacob at ARIZ08 PENALTY CAL Illegal Formation (Scott,Daniel) 5 yards from CAL44 to CAL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
47.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5052% → 53%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
48.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+29
48.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 29 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
47.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 18 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
46.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
46.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
47.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
47.2%
Jayden de Laura punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0447% → 57%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
47.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
47.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
47.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
47.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+36
46.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 36 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
49.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+13
49.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 13 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
56.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 16 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5647% → 57%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+32
52.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 32 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
51.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+17
51.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
50.3%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
43.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 24 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:1645% → 59%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
45.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 9 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
46.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
45.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 7 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+9
47.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 9 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
46.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Monroe Young for 14 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
47.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Tommy ChristakosSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
47.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 8 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+4
44.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
46.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 8 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+15
46.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 15 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
46.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 2:5350% → 53%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
49.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 17 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
48.4%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+24
50.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 24 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
47.1%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
47.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+13
48.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 13 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
47.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
46.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 12
-8
47.4%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Ryan Puskas for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
46.7%
Tyler Loop 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4045% → 45%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
45.4%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY CAL Holding (Terry II,Jermaine) 10 yards from CAL25 to CAL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-10
45.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 15Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
45.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the Cal 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4054% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
46.3%
Michael Wiley run for 10 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
45.0%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
45.0%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
45.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
47.2%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 4:0348% → 66%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
48.0%
PENALTY ARIZ Offside (Barrs,Kyon) 5 yards from CAL13 to CAL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 5
OWN 18
0
48.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+38
48.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 23 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Echols,Hunter) 15 yards from CAL41 to ARIZ44, 1ST DOWN. (Hunter Echols) to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
52.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 12 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
53.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 20 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
53.4%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
53.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Keleki LatuSimilar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+10
51.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Elijah Mojarro for 10 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
66.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5836% → 34%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 5 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
62.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 3 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+2
63.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+11
66.1%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 40 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 11 yds to the Cal 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:1468% → 83%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
67.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to J. Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
68.8%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+3
68.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
69.9%
Shotgun Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short left to Hunter,Jeremiah PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference (Young,Christian) 15 yards from ARIZ33 to ARIZ18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
83.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 18 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1320% → 19%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
79.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
78.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun de Laura,Jayden pass incomplete short left to McMillan,Tetairoa broken up by Hearns III,Lu-Magia PENALTY CAL Personal Foul (Burrell,Nate) 15 yards from ARIZ43 to CAL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
76.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to DJ Williams for 21 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
75.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-10
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun de Laura,Jayden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CAL15 (Sirmon,Jackson) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Fears,Paiton) 10 yards from CAL17 to CAL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 16
OPP 27
0
76.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 16
OPP 27
-5
78.4%
PENALTY ARIZ Delay Of Game (de Laura,Jayden) 5 yards from CAL27 to CAL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 21
OPP 32
-3
81.4%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Orin Patu for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 29 Jayden de Laura fumbled, recovered by Cal Myles Jernigan , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:5384% → 96%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
83.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
83.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+13
83.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 13 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
85.0%
Damien Moore run for 12 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
87.2%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
95.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 37 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:176% → 19%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
94.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 18 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
93.6%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
93.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 5 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
93.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 32 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
92.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+14
80.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3887% → 88%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
87.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
86.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
88.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:0613% → 10%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
87.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
87.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
87.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Tanner McLachlanSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
87.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jacob CowingSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+21
89.9%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 60 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for 21 yds to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:5091% → 92%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
90.5%
Brooks,DeCarlos rush left for 11 yards gain to the CAL41 (Taylor,Isaiah) PENALTY CAL Holding (Rohme,Brayden) 10 yards from CAL30 to CAL20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+7
90.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 7 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+2
90.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+8
89.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to J. Michael Sturdivant for 8 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22INT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:1110% → 9%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.5%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.3%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+17
90.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
89.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun de Laura,Jayden pass incomplete short middle to Cowing,Jacob PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Young,Isaiah) 15 yards from CAL48 to CAL33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Anthony SimpsonSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
90.6%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:5594% → 99%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.8%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
98.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 72 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:052% → 2%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.9%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jonah ColemanSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+21
97.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 21 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.9%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25END OF GAME
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:5199% → 99%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.7%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+15
98.7%
Plummer,Jack pass incomplete short middle to Terry II,Jermaine PENALTY ARIZ Roughing The Passer (Manu,Jacob) 15 yards from CAL29 to CAL44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
98.8%
Ashton Stredick run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 4
50
+14
98.8%
Ashton Hayes run for 14 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
98.8%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-2
99.3%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:17
Jack Plummer pass complete to Keleki Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q3 4:59
Jaydn Ott run for 18 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q2 3:40
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds for a TD
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com