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MSU

Michigan State 28 at Washington 39

WASH
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:58 · Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 190Home team on offense+26.4Score differential+8.2Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.9Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:32: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 19 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT MISSED) — WASH win probability +8.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:30: Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 17 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +11.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:59: Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSU win probability +9.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:02: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 53 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK) — WASH win probability +9.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 9:00MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:35MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35WASH 4th & 5 at MSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35WASH 4th & 1 at MSU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30WASH 4th & 1 at MSU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:41MSU 4th & 22 at MSU 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 47, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30MSU 4th & 3 at WASH 7, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20WASH 4th & 5 at MSU 34, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%−0.7
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:59MSU 4th & 6 at WASH 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:00MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 36, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:27MSU 4th & 30 at MSU 40, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41WASH 4th & 10 at MSU 41, up 22
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 24, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:17MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 24, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:24WASH 4th & 1 at MSU 1, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:19WASH 4th & 8 at MSU 9, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:32WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 46, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:24WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 46, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:15WASH 4th & 7 at MSU 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:07WASH 4th & 7 at MSU 43, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:58MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:52MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:12WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:49WASH Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:32WASH Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:30MSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:04WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:59MSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:02WASH Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:51MSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:17MSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WASHDrive 1TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4358% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
58.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
58.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Taj Davis for 5 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+8
58.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
58.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+47
58.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 47 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-5
59.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (Roger Rosengarten) to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
59.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
60.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 8 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2540% → 39%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
59.9%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+7
60.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
60.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
60.1%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-6
60.6%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+16
61.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 64 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 16 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+16
61.3%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3DOWNS
19 plays · 70 yds · 7:0161% → 64%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
61.1%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Otton, Ryan, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (VanSumeren, Ben) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
61.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 22 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
62.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
62.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+2
62.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+7
62.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 7 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
62.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-10
62.8%
McMillan, Jalen rush for 1 yard to the MICHIGANST22, PENALTY WASHINGTON illegal block 10 yards to the MICHIGANST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+8
62.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cameron Davis for 8 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+12
62.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 12 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
63.6%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
63.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 10 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MchSt 1 Wayne Taulapapa fumbled, recovered by Wash Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
63.9%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
63.7%
Michael Penix Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
63.7%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
64.7%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:5565% → 74%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
50
+10
64.6%
Cameron Davis run for 10 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
64.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Giles Jackson for 10 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
65.0%
Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
65.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 27 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.7%
Michael Penix Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.9%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:4930% → 25%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.7%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-5
72.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Brown) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+12
72.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
73.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-12
73.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Voi Tunuufi for a loss of 12 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 22
OWN 20
+6
75.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds , Dominique Hampton returns for 6 yds to the Wash 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:0278% → 88%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
77.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 37 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
79.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
79.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+19
87.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 19 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:4515% → 24%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
85.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
85.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 13 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
85.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
86.1%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 5
OWN 47
+11
87.6%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
87.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 18 yds to the Wash 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
86.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wash 23Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+8
87.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 8 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
88.4%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Wash 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
87.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
88.3%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wash 8Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
89.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wash 7Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
76.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:1383% → 92%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
82.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 16 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
83.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
83.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
83.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
83.1%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+17
80.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 17 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
92.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 17 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5110% → 19%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.5%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
90.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 20 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
90.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
89.8%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the Wash 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
90.5%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Coleman, Keon, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference 9 yards to the WASHINGTON30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
90.1%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
90.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 2 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
91.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+26
81.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 0:4385% → 94%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
84.6%
Cameron Davis run for 5 yds to the Wash 32Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
84.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
84.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 15 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
94.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 53 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)Similar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
93.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 7 yds · 6:187% → 4%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
93.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-1
93.6%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+6
94.1%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-5
94.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+13
94.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 13 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 4 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
94.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+8
95.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the Wash 44Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
95.3%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
95.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Cam Bright for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 20
50
0
95.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 20
50
-10
96.1%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 30
OWN 40
0
96.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 59 yds, downed at the Wash 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:4696% → 98%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
96.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Wash 1Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
96.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
96.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+29
96.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 29 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
97.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the Wash 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+12
97.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
97.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
97.6%
Jack McCallister punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:032% → 2%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+3
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:3698% → 99%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
98.3%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
98.4%
Cameron Davis run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+3
98.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 3 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
98.6%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
98.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+10
98.6%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Odunze, Rome, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Brantley, Charles) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.5%
Michael Penix Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.8%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Julius Irvin return for no gain to the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Devin CulpSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
98.8%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
98.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
99.4%
Peyton Henry 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 2:091% → 3%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
99.5%
Payton Thorne run for 21 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 13 yds to the Wash 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wash 49Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+32
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 32 yds to the Wash 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-15
99.3%
Thorne, Payton pass complete to Coleman, Keon for 4 yards to the WASHINGTON0, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference 15 yards to the WASHINGTON19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 0
OPP 19
+7
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 7 yds to the Wash 12Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 11 yds to the Wash 1Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+15
96.9%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.5%
Cameron Davis run for no gain to the Wash 43Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
98.7%
Cameron Davis run for 3 yds to the Wash 46Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Jack McCallister punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:482% → 7%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 24 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 11 yds to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
97.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the Wash 33Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+33
92.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 33 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:0396% → 96%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
95.5%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
95.7%
Cameron Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
96.3%
Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
96.3%
Jack McCallister punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:033% → 3%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
96.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 11 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.1%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+9
97.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
97.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
97.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.7%
Cameron Davis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-5
97.7%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 49Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+30
97.9%
Cameron Davis run for 30 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:30
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Keon Coleman for Two-Point Conversion)
-12.8
TD · Q2 0:04
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 17 yds for a TD, (Peyton Henry KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q3 11:59
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com