Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 17 at USC 45

USC
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:44 · Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense+5.9Pregame prior+15.0Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+2.0Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:35: Caleb Williams 8 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +3.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:04: Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +7.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:14: Austin Jones 3 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick) — FRES win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:04: Malik Sherrod 32 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick) — FRES win probability +11.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:13: Travis Dye 25 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick) — USC win probability +8.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:04FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40USC 4th & 2 at FRES 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:52FRES 4th & 5 at USC 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:44USC 4th & 4 at FRES 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:45USC 4th & 1 at FRES 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−1.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 14, down 25
    Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50USC 4th & 14 at USC 46, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 48, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:34FRES 4th & 20 at USC 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:33FRES 4th & 12 at USC 22, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:09USC 4th & 5 at FRES 24, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:46FRES 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:35USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:04USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:14FRES Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:04FRES Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:13USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:44USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5328% → 28%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
71.9%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
72.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
72.5%
Carson King punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:2472% → 77%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
72.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 18 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
73.0%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+8
72.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+5
72.6%
Caleb Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
73.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
73.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+13
73.0%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for 13 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
73.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+8
73.6%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
73.7%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
77.2%
Caleb Williams 8 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4124% → 26%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
76.1%
Jalen Cropper run for 27 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
75.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
74.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
74.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
74.7%
Jordan Mims run for 9 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
74.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
76.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.7%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
74.5%
Abraham Montano 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
23 plays · 83 yds · 15:0071% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
71.4%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+13
71.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
71.4%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+11
71.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
71.4%
Travis Dye run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
71.4%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
72.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
72.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
72.6%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+10
72.5%
(10:18) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete intended for ADDISON, Jordan thrown to the FRE0, clock 10:18. PENALTY FRE Pass Interference on LUX, Bralyn enforced 10 yards to the FRE2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.9%
Jordan Addison 2 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
74.8%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+13
74.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.2%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
75.6%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+11
75.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
75.7%
Travis Dye run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.7%
Caleb Williams pass incomplete to Terrell BynumSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
75.7%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
75.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 11 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 6:4075% → 87%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
74.9%
Caleb Williams run for 4 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+20
74.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
75.9%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
77.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
77.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
77.4%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
77.3%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+6
76.8%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
78.0%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+12
78.3%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Travis Dye for 12 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
78.2%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+11
77.7%
Caleb Williams run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
78.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for 8 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+5
79.1%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3216% → 16%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.7%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
84.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
84.8%
Jordan Mims run for 24 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
84.2%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
84.3%
Erik Brooks 39 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Abraham Montano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0988% → 93%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
91.6%
Austin Jones run for 44 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
92.8%
(05:51) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right complete for 5 yards to MCREE, Lake to the FRE15 (GATES, Elijah), clock 05:51. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Mario enforced 15 yards to the FRE35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+6
93.0%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 19
OPP 29
0
93.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 19
OPP 29
-14
93.3%
Caleb Williams sacked by David Perales for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 43 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 33
OPP 43
0
92.8%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1012% → 12%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
88.0%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+8
88.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+1
88.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 1 yd to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
88.4%
Carson King punt for 36 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0895% → 95%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
50
-4
94.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by Da'Marcus Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+2
94.6%
Caleb Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+5
94.7%
(01:08) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass up the middle incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Tahj thrown to the FRE0, clock 01:08. PENALTY FRE Offsides on FOX, Andres enforced 5 yards from the USC48 to the FRE47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-7
94.5%
Caleb Williams sacked by David Perales for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 46Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
95.2%
Aadyn Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the FrsSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:4512% → 6%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
88.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
88.5%
(00:34) HAENER, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for MORENO-CROPPER, Jalen thrown to the FRE40, clock 00:34. PENALTY USC Roughing the Passer on TULIAUPUPU, Solomon enforced 15 yards from the FRE27 to the FRE42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
86.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
90.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+13
91.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+8
94.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.0%
Jake Haener pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:435% → 4%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.2%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.3%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
95.3%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
95.5%
(13:22) HAENER, Jake pass up the middle incomplete intended for BROOKS, Erik thrown to the USC20, clock 13:22. PENALTY USC Pass Interference on BULLOCK, Calen enforced 15 yards to the USC47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
95.9%
Jake Haener sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4897% → 93%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
96.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Jordan Addison for 18 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
96.9%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.0%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+13
97.2%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for 13 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
97.3%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.6%
Austin Jones 3 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0111% → 21%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
89.0%
Logan Fife pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
89.5%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
89.3%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
90.6%
Logan Fife pass complete to Raymond Pauwels for 26 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
79.2%
Malik Sherrod 32 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4984% → 94%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.9%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Raleek Brown for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
84.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Max Williams for 32 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
85.4%
Caleb Williams run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.1%
Travis Dye 25 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 3:288% → 6%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.8%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+40
91.9%
Jordan Mims run for 40 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-9
91.3%
Jalen Moreno-Cropper run for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+1
92.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 18
OPP 28
-2
93.1%
Logan Fife sacked by Brandon Pili for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+48
93.7%
Abraham Montano 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4495% → 99%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
95.0%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+8
95.3%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.5%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
95.4%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+12
95.8%
Austin Jones run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
96.0%
Austin Jones run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 21 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
96.4%
(14:58) WILLIAMS, Caleb pass to the right incomplete thrown to the FRE0, clock 14:58. PENALTY USC Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VORHEES, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the FRE5 to the FRE10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.4%
Caleb Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Malcolm Epps 10 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:011% → 1%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.9%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
99.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
99.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.0%
Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
99.0%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+10
99.1%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 10 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 11 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
99.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-7
99.4%
Logan Fife sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 22Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+7
99.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:18100% → 100%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.5%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
99.6%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+29
99.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Terrell Bynum for 29 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.6%
Caleb Williams pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+15
99.7%
Austin Jones run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-12
99.7%
Caleb Williams run for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 41 Caleb Williams fumbled, recovered by USC Caleb WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 22
OPP 41
+6
99.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+11
99.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
99.9%
Denis Lynch 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
99.9%
Logan Fife sacked by Stanley Ta'ufo'ou for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+32
100.0%
Logan Fife pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 32 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
99.9%
Logan Fife pass complete to Zane Pope for 14 yds to the USC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Logan Fife run for 8 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+6
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.9%
Miller Moss run for 3 yds to the USC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:04
Malik Sherrod 32 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)
-11.4
TD · Q3 7:13
Travis Dye 25 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)
+8.7
TD · Q2 8:04
Caleb Williams 1 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com